Depending on how you view Houston’s current situation—stuck in the midst of a rebuild or about to turn a page with financial resilience and possibly existing—the team bears watch.
The 2023 NBA Draft is less than two weeks away. The Rockets have the #4 and #20 options, however many options come. They could theoretically pick two more young players, take one and trade the other or even drop out of the draft altogether. Sticking to the lottery pick, names like Amen, Ausar Thompson and Cam Whitmore have been frequently linked to the squad, and the Thompson twins are due to visit next week. Houston added Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. in the last two drafts, both top five picks, and has another chance to add a third. In a vacuum, this is what the rebuilding process should look like – continually adding the best talent available and hoping to develop them into winning players.
About a week into the draft, free agency was starting to wander and the Rockets were ready to be a serious player on the open market. They’re flush with cash, about $60 million in cap space, and have a desire to add veterans around their young group. Upgrades are needed across the board but specifically playmaking, shooting and perimeter/post defense. In other words, everywhere.
The next few weeks will shape the immediate future of this franchise. Will the missiles snatch the opportunity from the trumpets? Or will they stumble along the way and be stuck in the basements of the Western Conference?
To get a clearer perspective on pressing questions surrounding the organization, I reached out to her Athletic John Hollinger, NBA writer and former NBA executive, for some insight.
With the draft two weeks away, are you comfortable predicting the direction Charlotte and Portland go with the second and third picks — and what happens next with Houston?
I’m comfortable expecting Scott Henderson and Brandon Miller to be the picks for those two positions. I’m less comfortable dropping which one will be second and which team will be third, or whether it’s Portland or some other team making third-place picks. But I think there’s a level that separates them from everyone else on most draft boards, and Amin Thompson would need an absurdly good coaching to change opinions in Charlotte.
Should the Rockets simply go down this road to take the best player available? Who do you think this is if both Henderson and Miller are off the board? Alternatively, are you thinking of trading?
The Rockets should take the best player available, yeah. Talent capture project. You’re concerned about fit during trades and free agency, but you only have one chance for the fourth pick and you want to add an MVP.
I have Cam Whitmore as the best player available at that point; I think the age difference between him and Amin Thompson doesn’t get enough attention, and he’s a great athlete who can shoot and score at the moment.
In terms of trading, I would definitely try to get Scoot Henderson if I were the Rockets (and would immediately give up going after James Harden if that was the case); I just don’t see the two teams in front of them trading at any reasonable price for Houston. Even Portland, in third place, would be more interested in trading the selection to another team for a player than they would be in trading one spot.
What is your stance on the prospect of trading option #4? Is finding a deal with their first-round pick, the 20th pick, more attractive to you?
I wouldn’t rule out trading the fourth pick since Houston owes a pick to Oklahoma City next year and their roster is already filled with too many young players…but my level would be too high to give it away. I don’t see a realistic scenario on the board where Houston invests a fourth pick in a good, young starter, and fails to do so. It’s hard to justify giving up the long-term upside of potentially drafting a star.
As for trading the No. 20 pick, Houston should seriously consider trading this for a protected receiver first. They just don’t need another Garuba/Christopher/Washington brand to take in the menu points and development minutes. The Rockets may also consider trading 20 for a productive veteran, especially in the backcourt.
Are you on board for a James Harden comeback deal or will you look elsewhere to solve the veteran point guard’s woes?
Generally speaking, signing a 34-year-old to a multi-year max deal isn’t the play when you’re out of the 22-60 season. By the time the rest of the Rockets are advanced enough to help, Harden will be a declining force in a mega contract.
That said, I hate the idea of Harden even less than I once did. In the short term, in particular, it has benefits. Harden may not be great for player development for other perimeter players, but Harden’s ball control doesn’t look so bad if the replacement is Kevin Porter’s ball control.
The Rockets owe Westbrook four spots to the trade roster, so the incentive to Tank is close to zero this season. Having Harden will put other players into real basketball matches with a good halfway chance of winning them, and that makes rating and progression easier.
The other reason why it’s not so bad in the short term is because realistically, who else are they going to get? DeAngelo Russell? Russell Westbrook? I don’t think Fred VanVleet or Kyrie Irving look twice at Houston, so unless they can trade in cover space, Harden is the best alternative to ball practice.
Finally, new CBA rules mean rockets ought to spend a bunch of money this summer; Their cover area createsBrewster millions The situation where they need to add $45 million just to get to the floor.
The problem is that Harden’s four-year cap likely leaves them with the 37-year-old Harden taking a large chunk of the cap with limited production. The bill will come due once their last draft picks become eligible for extension and become much more expensive. Houston has eight great players whose rookie contracts expire in either 2025 or 2026; If it is good, the price will be much higher. So, signing him for a maximum of four years could cause a lot of trouble in the summers of 2025 and 2026; I’m not sure the juice is worth squeezing.
I’ll take you back to the front office – how are you going to spend $60 million in that cap space off season? Which players do you think best complement this team? Will you take up all the space now or will you keep some down the road?
Cool, can I change the owner?
As I mentioned above, the Rockets are strongly incentivized to spend at least $47 million this summer, with the money potentially split between a guard and forward. If they can’t get Harden, I would look aggressively at trading for Tyus Jones from Memphis in the cap space and making him the starter. A bolder strategy is to see if Golden State loses to Jordan Paul in cap space. (Trading Chris Paul is another theoretical possibility, but I doubt that’s where he wants to land.)
Houston also needs groundbreakers and linebackers on the 3rd and 4th. Two players who are young enough to make a difference are Cameron Johnson, Max Stross, and Dillon Brooks. Johnson would call for a big bid sheet to scare the Nets out of a match, while Strus and Brooks are off-limits.
Are there any solid business opportunities that you think Houston should pursue given their roster preparation and eagerness to accelerate the rebuilding process?
I think most of the so called aggressive chances will be fouls. They went 22-60 last year; The team isn’t good enough to push a stack of chips in, and the fatigue of losing doesn’t change that. I get that the Rockets have all the draft picks out of Brooklyn that they could use to sweeten the pot in a blockbuster trade, but you don’t want to be Atlanta or Minnesota and play the card too early.
Now that Ime Udoka’s coaching staff is basically complete, what do they need to do to ensure the Rockets’ performance is not repeated for the 2022-23 season? Do we expect a significant improvement or is patience still required?
Let’s see who’s on the roster when the season starts before we predict how much Houston will improve. Realistically, improving to “misrespect” and having a winning total in the mid-30s would be a reasonably good score, and even that could be down the road depending on how free agency goes.
From Odoka’s perspective, the biggest thing I want to see from Houston is more discipline — better shooting selection, more team play and less one-pass or zero-pass possession, and actual effort on transitional defense. Another focus for the Rockets should be player development, given the number of recent first-round draft picks on the roster.
(Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)