Heading into the 2022-23 season, the Golden State Warriors are reasonable bets for repeat champions. However, the team has endured far more bumps on the way back to the playoffs than anyone expected.
Steve Kerr’s staff spent most of the season hovering around . 500 (although they did finish 44-38 after winning eight of their last 10 games), with most of their struggles occurring outside of San Francisco. At home, the Warriors looked like the contenders everyone thought they would be (33-8, 5th in the net rating), but played like a lottery team everywhere else (11-30, 23rd in the net rating).
Several factors contributed to this decline. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have all missed significant time either due to injury or personal reasons. Jordan Paul, who had a lavish extension in the offseason last season, struggled to translate his impressive average stat (20.4 points per game) into positive value for the team (minus 0.5 estimated plus/minus). Nor has the bench played well enough to overcome these setbacks (ranked 17th in net rating).
Despite these troubles, some fans and analysts still believe this struggling team can make another run to the Finals.
Of course, the Warriors’ championship pedigree and VIP roster give them a shot at the wide open Western Conference, but will that be enough?
Wiggins imminent return Breathe some life into this idea. Golden State was clearly better when he played (plus -5.3 net rating with him, plus 0.3 without him), and rejoining the Warriors should provide for the team. Wing defense is versatilestrong rebounding (especially on the offensive end), and shooting from a 3-point range (39.6 percent on 6.1 attempts per game).
Even if Wiggins isn’t back at the start of the playoffs – or needs time to re-accommodate once he does – the trio of Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green are more than effective enough to carry this club around.
With all three on the floor, the Warriors score 118.5 points per 100 possessions and achieve an 8.3 net-plus rating, which shouldn’t surprise you if you watch it. any Warriors Games over the past several years. Add Wiggins to the mix, and the offensive rating jumps to 120.4 and the net rating increases to plus-11.9. So, you see why some people aren’t worried about the prospects of full strength warriors.
It also helps that there is no clear favorite in the West this year. The conference’s top seeds, the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies, remain in the category of “we’ll believe it when we see it” contenders. Golden State’s first-round opponent, the Sacramento Kings, thrived on one of the most spectacular offenses in the league, but it wouldn’t take much imagination to imagine a healthy Warriors squad explaining their suspect defense.
The Clippers have the personnel to contend for the championship, but they haven’t played as well since the addition of Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook (11-10 record, plus a 1.0 net rating since Feb. 22). The Phoenix Suns have looked like a juggernaut in the eight games Kevin Durant has played for them, but can they continue to beat them without generating a bunch of looks on the edge (26th in drives per game since Durant’s trade) or trips to the line (26 in attempts per 100 this year)?
Everyone in this half of the arc has as many – if not more – issues as warriors. Knowing that, is it unreasonable to accept the idea of a full-strength Warriors team beating any of those teams in a seven-game series, especially given how impressive they are to close out the season?
However, it does not immunize the Golden State from its own dangers. They’re still banking on the heavy workload and pristine health of one of the league’s oldest rosters (knowing that any hitch in the plan will force them to turn to their bench for quality minutes). The lack of a home-court advantage also makes the road’s problems more difficult to ignore.
Even if these things went right, it wouldn’t be easy for the warriors to get out of the West. But this team has so much skill and chemistry that no one can ignore their chances. The idea that a team can “flip the switch” and suddenly play well after producing months of mediocre basketball is, at best, frivolous. If any team can do this, it’s the Warriors.