It’s been 40 days since quarterback Aaron Rodgers publicly stated his “intent” to play for the New York Jets in 2023 – yet he’s still a member of the Green Bay Packers.
The most anticipated potential trade in recent memory is heading into a rut as the NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night (8 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC, and the ESPN App), meaning heightened urgency for all parties. The Jets remain confident that a trade will occur. “He’ll be here!” Jets general manager Joe Douglas, appearing at a New Jersey radio station-sponsored event on April 7, told a boisterous crowd.
but when? And why?
A closer look at what to expect this week:
When is this trade expected to happen and why next?
Rob Dimowski, ESPN Packers reporter: In the Packers’ view, that need not happen before the draft begins. Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has gone on record not asking the Jets to be selected in the first round (No. 13 overall) in this draft. Obviously, however, he wouldn’t make a trade without his second-day draft picks (rounds 2 and 3), so a likely scenario is that the trade goes down before the second round starts on Friday. The Jets have a pair of second-round picks (#42 and #43) but no third-round pick. The Packers’ second-round pick comes right after those draft picks in 45th overall, so don’t be surprised if there’s a flurry of activity at the time.
Rich Cimini, ESPN Jets reporter: It would be high drama if the Jets-Packers continued to stare until the Jets were on the clock at #42, but that seems unlikely with a trade of this size. This isn’t the kind of deal that gets put together in a few minutes, especially one that might involve restructuring Rodgers’ huge contract. (Rodgers is guaranteed $59.4 million in 2023.) If the two teams strike an around-the-clock deal, that likely means the framework is pre-established. One of the advantages of having the 42nd pick (acquired from the Cleveland Browns in a trade for Elijah Moore) is that it gives the Jets back-to-back picks—two chances to “steal” a player the Packers might want. A little leverage, perhaps?
What are they arguing about?
Dimovsky: The issue seems to be what to do if Rodgers does not play after the 2023 season with the Jets. The Jets may be reluctant to pick a future first-round draft pick without knowing that Rodgers is committed to more than one season. There may also be an issue of how much, if any, Rodgers’ contract the Packers are willing to pay.
Semini: The Jets want protection on the back end, just in case Rodgers chooses the only path. In other words, they would like a 2025 Packers draft pick if he retires after the 2023 season. From the Jets’ perspective, it wouldn’t be a good idea to give up an unconditional first-round pick for a quarterback who will be 40 by the end of the season and admittedly is “90% retired.” Before darkness recedes in mid-February. . In 2008, the Jets were willing to give up a first round player to Brett Favre, but only if he led them to the Super Bowl, a condition of their trade to the Packers. They may be willing to do the same for a Rodgers trade, especially since he will be the 31st or 32nd pick in 2024.
Assuming the trade happens during the draft, when can we expect to see Rodgers in a Jets uniform?
Dimovsky: Rich can tell you what the Gates expect from Rodgers, but unless he’s more ready for the offseason than he’s been in recent years, good luck getting him to New Jersey for anything other than the mandatory mini-camp in June. Heck, he even got over it in Green Bay during the 2021 season. Rodgers gets a $50,000 workout bonus, so it’s not like money would motivate him to report. This is a guy who enjoys his own routines.
SeminiIt’s almost impossible to predict when the mercurial Rodgers will debut, but the Jets don’t sweat it. He has a strong relationship with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and already has a good understanding of offense, so it’s not like he totally needs to attend OTA workouts, which start May 22nd. At the same time, players are eager to work with him on the field. It would send a positive message if he stepped out on recent history, showed up for non-compulsory events and tried to build chemistry with his teammates.
What does it mean for both teams if a trade doesn’t take place before or during the draft, and what then?
Dimovsky: Prepare for a stalemate that could last for weeks in the summer if no trade takes place before or during the draft. Without any immediate compensation in the form of the 2023 draft, the Packers will probably want to wait until June 1 to make the trade. That would allow them to spread Rodgers’ remaining salary fees over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. However, they might prefer to take the $40.3 million in one lump sum this year and be done with it.
Semini: You’ve been hearing a lot of roll juggling from the Jets, saying it’s a great opportunity for Zach Wilson to get extra workout reps in throughout the spring while he learns the new offense. You can also hear about players traveling to Southern California to have informal workouts with Rodgers while they wait for a trade. Wilson hosted his teammates last summer at a luxury resort in Idaho. Rodgers could do the same near his home in Malibu if he so chose. It is envisaged that the Jets could take the business talks all the way to training camp. It wouldn’t be perfect, but, hey, Favre’s trade didn’t happen until August 6th.
Could this trade collapse and not happen? If so, then what for both teams?
Dimovsky: That’s the $58.3 million question from the Packers. They won’t have to pay that bonus, guaranteed, until the first week of the regular season, so they’ll have time to try and find another receiver for Rodgers. But if not, they’ll have to pay Rodgers that money — on top of his $1.165 million base salary — whether they’re going to play him or not. Paying someone $60 million not to play would be malfeasance in the football operation. The only way out would be if Rodgers retired, and at this point, why walk away? Can you imagine the outrage among Packers fans if Jordan Love struggled early as they pay Rodgers not to play?
Semini: If it collapses, the Jets will have to buy a paper towel factory to get enough tissues to remove all the whites from their faces. It’s Rodgers or the bust. They’re a little too far out of the way to turn back, especially since they’ve made it clear they don’t trust Wilson as a QB1. They could try to fire Ryan Tannehill from the Tennessee Titans, but that would be a hard sell to the fan base, which has focused on Rodgers for months. Lamar Jackson? This could be a pipe dream. What if Rodgers gets impatient and decides to retire? This indication is not given. He seems committed to the Jets, based on how he tries to recruit free agents.