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This week the PGA Tour heads to Mexico for the 2023 Mexico Open in Vedanta, and we’re a long shot pick that signals a once elite level of play. This is our pick, the favorite bet on the Mexican Open and everything else you need to know for this week.
Mexico Open odds: long range bet
The betting odds on this week’s Mexican Open are lopsided, and any player outside of defending champions John Ramm and Tony Finau could be considered a long shot. With that in mind, we’re putting our money on Gary Woodland, who comes into the week with +3300 winning odds.
Woodland, the 2019 US Open champion, is having a solid season. He’s scored two top 10s so far this year, including a T9 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open and another T9 at the Genesis Invitational against a star-studded field. In the first major of the year, Woodland flashed well, opening with a 68 in the Augusta National for a T14 Masters finish, following it up with a T31 in the RBC Heritage. Moreover, he only missed three cuts in 14 starts.
Last season, he amassed five Top 10s and two Top 5s, and finished T24 at the Mexico Open, the first time the tournament was an official PGA Tour event.
If Ram understandably stumbles out of the gate due to his whirlwind of the past few weeks, that would open up a huge opportunity for Woodland. If he wins, a $10 bet on his part will earn you $330. For an insurance bet or a less risky bet, consider a Woodland bonus bet to finish in the top 10 or top 20.
How did the long shot work last week
At last week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans, we picked Joel Dahmen and Denny McCarthy as long shots to win the only team event on the PGA Tour schedule at +4000.
Dahmen and McCarthy did not disappoint, putting together four solid runs to beat the pre-tournament odds and finish T11 at 21-under. It wasn’t a far-fetched win, but it was a fifth Top 11 or better result for our long-running picks this year, so we’re slowly stepping back in the right direction.
previous results
2023 Zurich Classic in New Orleans: Denny McCarthy / Joel Dahmen (odds: +4,000; finishes: T11)
2023 RBC Heritage: Tom Kim (odds: +3,500; finish: MC)
2023 Masters: Tommy Fleetwood (odds: +6,600; finishes: 33)
Valspar Championship 2023: David Lingmerth (ods: +12,500; finish: T27)
2023 Players Championship: Corey Connors (odds: +6,600; finish: MC)
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Billy Horschel (odds: +10,000; finish: MC)
2023 Honda Classic: Sepp Magpie (odds: +5000; finish: T5)
2023 Genesis: Adam Scott (odds: +5,500; finish: 65)
2023 WM Phoenix Open Championship: Rickie Fowler (ods: +8000; finish: T10)
2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (ods +8000; finish: T11)
2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (ods: +10,000; finish: T11)
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (odds: +5,000; finish: T73)
2023 Century Championship of Champions: Ryan Bream (ods: +75,000; finish: T35)
Mexico Open Odds: The Candidates
The favorites betting list for this week’s Mexican Open is as unbalanced as it gets. Ram – the defending champion, Masters champion and world number one – has odds of winning +240. Not far behind Tony Finau, who finished T2 in Mexico last year, at +750.
For third place, the odds-makers got Windham Clark early in the week, but his odds of winning dropped sharply to +2000.
You can see the top 10 and the links in the Mexico Open betting odds as of Monday morning below, OR Head over to BetMGM See the full list of odds and bets for this week.
2023 Mexico Open Betting Odds (Top 10 & Correlations)
Jon Rahm (+240)
(+750) Tony Finau
Windham Clark (+2000)
Patrick Rodgers (+3000)
(+3300) Gary Woodland
Aaron Rai (+4000)
Alex Noreen (+4000)
Byung Hoon An (+4000)
Maverick McNeely (+4000)
Nikolai Hoeggaard (+4000)