We began our postseason evaluation of the Capitals forward group last week with a look at the individual points per minute of icing time And performance of expected targets per striker for the 2022-23 season [here].
And today we complement that preliminary assessment with a look at the performance of each of the front line squads the Capitals have deployed this season. We will compare them Differential expected goals (xGF – xGA) f expected targets in percentage (xGF%) with the Offensive Zone Showdown Turning Start Percentage (OZFO%) at five out of five.
All fonts posted
The following chart plots every forward lineup posted for the 2022-23 season (sans lines that included Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway). The graph includes the total time each line was posted (TOI), percentage of offensive zone encounters each line was on the ice for (OZFO%), expected goal difference (xGF – xGA) and expected goals in percentage (xGF%) For each line it is posted at five over five. [Click to enlarge].
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
The thin vertical red line above divides the positive and negative predicted targets for the percentages of all combinations of lines.
What worked
If we throw out the first eight line groups due to lack of adequate sample size (minimum time on ice), we can look at the remaining best performing line groups that incurred a lot of time on ice all together. [Click to enlarge].
the Ovechkin-Strome-Sheary The line is probably the first line that jumps out at you. The trio posted excellent possession numbers and scored the most minutes out of all of the Capitals’ lineups this season. However, they also score over 80% of their offensive tackles in the area, which will obviously affect their positive possession metrics.
the Mind dood op copels The line posted positive possession metrics, all while seeing only 12.5% of their turnovers starting facing offensive zone. But that’s what the fourth line does. They usually start in the defensive zone and usually face the opposition’s top lines. The fact that it posted positive numbers is impressive, but it’s no shock to Nick Dowd’s streak.
There is a very good chance that the two aforementioned lines will start next season while they are sitting, with the top line from Ovechkin-Strome-Sheary (if Sheary is re-signed) and the fourth line from Protas-Dowd-Aube Kubel. If Sheary isn’t re-signed, you could see Aube-Kubel take Sheary’s position on the top line, which has also worked well this season. Obviously, this will create an additional need in the fourth line.
It should be added that Milan Backstrom Wilson The streak performed very well, for 49 minutes from five on five ice time. This is important and something to think about going forward.
It should also be noted that Craig Smith Post fixed numbers on more than one line group in a short time with capitals. He’s 33 and likely won’t return to the Capitals, but he deserves credit for the work he’s done and the success he’s had. He (quietly) put together a solid finish to the season.
What didn’t work
Just as important are lines that did not perform well on pre-determined tenure metrics. [Click to enlarge].
was a performance Ovechkin Strom Wilson The line, which saw significant time on the ice together but posted negative possession metrics. the Ovechkin Kuznetsov Wilson The line wasn’t doing very well either, considering offensive zone shift starting percentages. Wilson has missed half of the season, so it’s likely that the next coach will revisit that streak early next season to get an update on how they’re working together.
Capitals also gave big time to Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Sheary with results of just under 50%. This could be due to Kuznetsov’s sub-par season and terrible finish, but it’s possible that this streak will get more time next season, assuming Kuznetsov and Cherry return.
Add context
As with all analytics, the above stats are just a few brushstrokes on the overall board we started with points per minute and expected goals performance.
The next (third) step of the forward analysis will look at other key acquisition metrics as well as look at player replacement values based on goals above replacement (GAR) and expected goals above replacement (xGAR) for each of the Capitals forwards. We’ll end the series with a final post bringing all the analysis together.
Written by John Sorensen