The Miami Heat shouldn’t be worried that few people think they’ll win the 2023 NBA Finals. The Heat have beaten the doubters all over the postseason and giving South Beach a fourth championship since 2006 would fit the character of this team.
But the Nuggets (-410) are rightfully favored by a large margin considering they have the MVP of the series, Nikola Jokic. Miami center Bam Adebayo, the second-team All-Defensive player this season, will be a full-on — but he’s a dark horse contender who will win the Finals MVP award if the Heat can pull off an upset. After all, it’s hard to imagine Miami winning if Jokic averaged 30-10-10 for the series. And Adebayo is the only Heat player with a chance to slow him down.
However, Jokic isn’t the only thing the Nuggets are going for. Denver’s backup features several former first-round draft picks, while Miami relies on underrated players to fuel its miracle journey.
Per SportsOddsHistoryMiami (+320) is the biggest underdog in the Finals since the Cleveland Cavaliers (+688) in 2018, when the Cavs took on the indestructible Golden State Warriors with Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. The only teams other than the Heat that had worse championship odds before Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 2000-01 are the Philadelphia 76ers (+1,600 in 2001), then the New Jersey Nets (+550 in 2002), and the Detroit Pistons (+500). in 2004) and the Cavaliers again (+360 in 2007).
Of those teams, the 2003-2004 Pistons are the only ones to win the NBA Finals. Overall, eight underdogs have won Finals since 2000-2001, with the latest to do so being the Bucks (+160 in 2021).
While the first game’s pregame numbers indicate Miami is the biggest underdog since Detroit in 2004, that may not necessarily be true.
Preseason odds seem inconsequential at this time of year, but they’ve been a better predictor of Finals results since 2001 than the odds right before Game 1.
Data from SportsOddsHistory shows that among the finalists since the 2000-01 season, the team with better preseason odds has won the title 76.2 percent of the time, versus 63.4 percent of the time when it was a game-one favorite.
This season, Miami started the year at +1600 while Denver was at +1800. It’s worth remembering that last season the Heat finished with the best regular season record in the Eastern Conference at 53-29 and was a win away from playing in the NBA Finals.
During these playoffs, they frequently play near that level of a team that was outclassed during the 2022-23 regular season. For that reason, a Heat victory might not be as surprising as when the Pistons beat the Lakers in 2004 or the Dallas Mavericks beat LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2011. It could be that the Cavaliers dethroned the 73-9 Warriors. more amazing.
When it comes to The Heat, nothing will surprise us anymore.