NBA fans are about to take a break from praying for a lopsided three-pointer entry, and instead turn to praying that a specific envelope contains their favorite team’s logo.
The NBA draft lottery may seem like a strange sight, but it could affect the future of franchises for years to come. And this year, it holds a special significance: the winner will have the right to choose France’s Victor Wimbanyama, who is expected to be a game-changing star.
When and where is the lottery taking place and how can I watch it? The lottery takes place on Tuesdays at 8 p.m. ET in Chicago. ESPN will broadcast the event; You can also expect to quickly find the news on social media, as fans celebrate or lament the result.
Who is in this year’s lottery? The 14 teams that did not participate in the playoffs are eligible; Includes the four teams that competed in the matches but failed to advance to the playoffs proper.
It’s a little more complicated than that. Because of previous deals, the Dallas Mavericks will give their pick to the Knicks unless they fall into the top 10, and the Chicago Bulls will pick the Orlando Magic unless they fall into the top four.
How it works? A random draw will be held to select the top four draft picks, with the weaker teams having better chances. Shots 5 through 14 will then be allocated in reverse order of teams’ records.
Who has the best chance at pick #1? Each of the three weakest teams in the regular season — the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs — has a 14 percent chance of getting a top draft pick.
Who else has a chance at first place? The rest of the teams have lower chances on a sliding scale, from the Charlotte Hornets at 13 percent down to the New Orleans Pelicans, who had a winning record in the regular season and only have a 0.5 percent chance of being selected as a top pick. The rest of the teams with a chance are Blazers at 11%, Magic 9, Pacers 7, Wizards 7, Jazz 5, Mavericks 3, Bulls 2, Thunder 2, Raptors 1 (numbers rounded up to the nearest percentage).
How about shots 15 to 30? It’s all set, starting with the playoff team with the worst record, the Hawks, in 15th place, and moving down by selection to the better teams.
Is what I see on TV the actual lottery? No, what you’re seeing is more of a ceremonial reveal of the draft order. The actual lottery takes place a little earlier in front of a handful of witnesses from the league, the team, and the news media who are locked in another room.
I read that the lottery is fixed. Is this correct? no. Conspiracy theorists sometimes claim that the league reforms the lottery in favor of teams in large markets, particularly in the inaugural lottery in 1985 when the Knicks won and earned the right to pick Patrick Ewing.
There has been no credible evidence that the draft lottery has actually been fixed, and with no team from New York or Los Angeles in the draw, one hopes conspiracy talk will be silenced this year.
When and where is the actual draft? June 22 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, for the ninth time in the past 10 years. (The exception was the year of the pandemic, when it was held via conference call.)
Who will be chosen? Everyone expects Wembanyama to go to number one. Variously, he has been reported to be between 7ft 2in and 7ft 4in, and has a wingspan of over eight feet which makes him a nightmare on defense. It’s fast and it can score too. He averages 22 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks in the French League this season for the Metropolitans 92, a team based in Paris. He won’t be 20 until January and should have a huge upside.
Unusually, predictors who think a lot about the draft are starting to come to a consensus for picks 2-4 as well. Those likely to be guard Scoot Henderson, who averaged 17 points a game with the G League Ignite; forward Brandon Miller of the University of Alabama; and guard Amin Thompson, who played for the City Reapers of Overtime Elite.
But that could change depending on which team gets the pick, and stocks could go up and down over the next month.
And what about the MVP in college, Purdue’s Zack Eddy? Despite his stellar season, Eddie was not highly rated by NBA scouts. At 7-foot-4 and bulky, he looks like a classic NBA center, but his inability to score from the outside doesn’t seem right for the modern game. He can go somewhere in the second round.
If my team gets the top pick, we’re set, right? Players like Tim Duncan, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis have all gone to No. 1, and Wimpanyama looks certain.
But Greg Oden, Anthony Bennett and Ben Simmons all went to No. 1, a humble reminder not to start counting championships just yet.