We know that sometime during the night of June 22nd, Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum will announce who is the final pick for the 2023 NBA Draft. We will then have complete certainty of how one of the busiest nights in the association will turn out. But even then, we have to rely on mock drafts and other factors to get a better idea of how the draft will go. To make it easier, we present the 2023 NBA Draft Prediction.
To calculate the odds of a player landing a given draft position, we took into account the mock draft picks we monitor for aggregated mock draft development…while also taking into account their reliability in previous years. By taking into account each player’s placement in these mock drafts and the consensus on their potential draft range, we calculate the odds for each lead and draft placement. Additionally, we take into account each player’s reported pre-workouts, increasing the likelihood that a franchise will draft a player who has worked with the team.
There are a few points we need to address here. First, there is no pure analytical justification for why Victor Wimbanyama There shouldn’t be a 100 percent chance of him being the first pick in the 2023 draft, regardless of the “*** happens” factor. The consensus among the fictitious drafters and league insiders is just as overwhelming. However, we cannot rule out unpredictable factors that may contribute to the non-zero chance that unforeseen circumstances may prevent Wembanyama from being a first draft pick. For this reason, we arbitrarily set a 0.5 percent chance that the French phenomenon would not be a top pick. Of course, if you think the “*** happens” factor should actually measure closer to 5 percent or 0.01 percent, you might be right, too.
Another obvious anomaly in prediction draft odds involves a player being a favorite for more than one draft spot. In our first version, the best example is this Taylor Hendricks, who emerged as the first lead for the 10th and 11th draft picks. The reason for this is that there is a general consensus that it will land in one of these two positions. Meanwhile, a prospect with similar potential, eg Casson WallaceHe has fictitious draft projections ranging from the 7th pick to the 13th pick, making it difficult to pinpoint his exact draft position. Ultimately, both players are seen as potential lottery picks, but the odds reflect that Hendrix’s draft range is considered more stable than Wallace’s.