The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers could wrap up their playoff series Wednesday night, but they’re underdogs to the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors.
After a rough 0-3 night on Tuesday, I’m looking forward to bouncing back with three player props and bonus money in Game 5 tonight.
Let’s break down the shots:
Record the best bets in the NBA to date
Best bets on the NBA today
- Passed Jalen Bronson by 25.5 points (-120)
- Mitchell Robinson under 6.5 points (-135)
- LeBron James under 40.5 points, rebounds and assists (-120)
- New York Knicks-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (+110) – 0.5 units
Passed Jalen Bronson by 25.5 points (-120)
Knicks star Jalen Bronson has averaged 25.5 points in four games this postseason, and he’s coming off one of his best games, scoring 32 in 45 minutes in Game 4 in Miami.
The Knicks will play Bronson as often as they can handle him, and the star guard has at least 19 shot attempts per game in this series. New York’s best chance of winning is running things through Bronson.
The Heat really couldn’t slow Brunson down despite the struggles of the rest of the Knicks, so I’m going to trust him to put the team on his back in Game Five.
Mitchell Robinson under 6.5 points (-135)
Knicks Mitchell Robinson has scored six or fewer points in all three games since Julius Randle returned to the lineup this series, and he has just 10 shot attempts in those three games.
This gives Robinson, a bad free throw shooter, very little margin for error in his attempts from the field. If he doesn’t dominate the offensive glass (17 rebounds total in the last three games), Robinson won’t get many offensive looks.
The Knicks may need to switch things up and make it small in Game 5 to get rid of the heat, so I’ll fade Robinson, who wasn’t much of a scorer anyway, into this prop.
LeBron James under 40.5 points, rebounds and assists (-120)
LeBron James fading? It’s a bold strategy, but I bet more on the number here than on the player.
The four-time champion has played well in the postseason, but has failed to cross that streak in seven of his ten games.
LeBron passed a 40.5 PRA in Game 4, but he may not play as much in Game 5 if Golden State rises as dramatically as it did in Game 2.
The Lakers followed this blueprint from the first round, struggling in Game 5 on the road before closing things down at home.
Bronn averages 22.6 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game in the playoffs. It’s less than that number a lot of times, so I’ll ride with it in game five.
New York Knicks-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (+110) – 0.5 units
- New York Knicks Moneyline (-170)
- Golden State Warriors Moonline (-305)
This is a “back to the wall” game.
The Knicks and Warriors both need a win on Wednesday night to extend their series, and I love both home teams for getting the job done.
Golden State is 28-10 all-time in the Steve Curry era after losing in the playoffs, and the Warriors have also been 33-8 at home this season. I expect them to bring the urgency they had in Game 2 to extend this series.
As for the Knicks, it will be the team behind the roaring Madison Square Garden, and they went 3-1 at home in this playoff.
Miami has outpace the Knicks in this series, but New York may decide to run Jalen Bronson and Julius Randle as much as possible to stay in this game. I love the Knicks to come away with a win.
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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.