It’s taken a while but as each second-round series gets going, we can officially bracket into the opening round of the NBA Playoffs this season. That done, we’ll delve briefly into the conference semifinal events before outlining some of the best bets for Thursday night’s playoff slate.
We start by closing the first floor door; For good. Here are my takeaways.
More par than anyone expected
Phrases like “the West is halfway there” or “there’s a lot of par” were among the many phrases that stuck on repeat throughout the NBA season. And guess what? Each turned out to be completely valid. Seeing every team lose a series is not something I expected, no matter how relatively competitive it may seem.
When I really sit back and look at it, though, these Play-In Tournament teams are Play-In Tournament teams for a reason. Since the concept was introduced, no team from that block has taken more than two games in a first-round series— And we haven’t had a seed below five in the finals since 1999.”
That quote above? This was nearly a month ago in my playoffs betting preview with Rob Schaefer – convinced that the idea of a play-by-play team making it to the opening round was ridiculous, based on history. Well, not only have seven (the Los Angeles Lakers) and eight seeders (the Miami Heat) made it to the conference semifinals, each of them has already stolen the home court advantage while posing a legitimate threat to reach the conference finals. Both teams outlasted their seeded first-round opponent from start to finish, and while it’s unfair to assume that their opponents’ luck has changed the series (I don’t think that’s true), there are a few important elements. This brings me to the next takeaway.
Fighting a bedbug infestation
What more to say about injuries other than that there were a lot of injuries and they were all sucked in, for lack of a better word. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Julius Randle and FIFA World Player of the Year winner Joel Embiid all missed games less than a month after the qualifiers (go ahead and add Chris Paul while you’re at it). In short, it’s a pity for everyone – the players, their teams, the fans, etc. As always, half the battle is being more healthy than the other team. Other than Paul, it seems as if those are starting to turn the corner in terms of health.
Fingers crossed.
Repeat subjects in the second round
A lot of what I’ve seen from certain teams in the first round bled in the second round – for good or bad.
The good? Teams that faltered in their previous encounters mostly did so again during the early parts of this run – the Lakers, Heat, Nuggets and Sixers. However, on the other end remain the teams that weren’t as impressive (some more than others). For example, he put the Phoenix Clippers away in five games but never really looked impressive doing it. Boston didn’t do as well in its six-game series with Atlanta, which is why it’s not surprising to see both teams have already taken a punch or two in the mouth against much tougher competition.
For what it’s worth, it’s early in the series for each team with plenty of basketball left to play, and if you still believe in the Celtics, you’re not alone – they still have the best league title odds (+175). But the bigger potential reward is being saved for those who still think Kevin Durant and Devin Booker can take the Suns to the Finals and over the finish line. They entered Thursday with +1200 odds.
You can decide for yourself which of the remaining teams is worth betting on futures.
Best bets on Thursday
Futures are great, but let’s be honest, most of us don’t want to wait for the NBA to finish in June and miss out on all the highs and lows of playoff betting along the way. Lakers-Warriors Game 2 is the only game on Thursday’s list, but the game offers plenty of attractive props for players to consider spending some money on. Here are some things to keep in mind:
Kevon Looney over 13.5 rebounds (-115)
Last six playoff games Looney: 23, 21, 13, 22, 14 and 20 rebounds. Why not take charge? Finding his way to at least 14 rebounds feels like just another day at Looney’s office, based on how he’s been cleaning glass in recent weeks. And when you consider how important his size is to a smaller Golden State team who has to deal with the equally powerful rebounding duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James who totaled 34 boards in the Lakers’ Game 1 victory, Looney will. You see enough time on the court to take advantage of the rebound brace.
Jordan Paul over 1.5 3 points (-165)
Our lasting memory of Game 1 will probably be the rumbling of 27-foot pee, 3-pointers from deep water with less than 10.0 seconds to play in a three-point game. good shot? bad shot? It doesn’t matter at this point. Potential game-tying shot aside, it’s fairly easy to forget that Poole put up 11 triples and hit six of them in a Game 1 loss. The six-rep makes it unlikely, but given his track record, it feels closer to that than the 1.3-in. Each game of the 25.7 percent in shooting he showed in seven games against Sacramento. More than one make three is possible and is something worth betting on.
Jared Vanderbilt over 0.5 steals (-225)
Remember when Vanderbilt lost during the last quarter of Game 1 and the game completely turned in the Warriors’ favor? Things got a little tricky for the Lakers defense, and whether it was Paul or Stephen Curry freeing shots, this little stretch showed just how valuable Vanderbilt’s length and defensive IQ are to the Lakers in a series like this. There will be plenty of chasing Curry from start to finish, and you can bet some active hands will result in at least one steal.
(Photo by Kevon Looney: Ray Chavez/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images)