NHL via Getty Images
In our latest series on potential acquisition targets the Capitals are likely to pursue in the off-season, we’ll take a look at the current Florida Panthers team. Anthony Duclair. With Capitals and general manager Brian MacLellan looking to upgrade their top six forwards this off-season, Duclair is an interesting option.
Statistics and salary cap information used in this post are courtesy of The natural stats trickAnd hockey referenceAnd cap friendlyAnd Popper SportsAnd Hockey PhysAnd Hockey evolution. If you would like to learn more about the statistical terminology used in this post, please check out the NHL Analytics Glossary.
directed needs
Anthony Duclair plays left wing and was sixth for the Florida Panthers when healthy. Last season, he spent most of his time on the ice alongside Alexander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe.
The Florida Panthers appear to be actively shopping for Anthony Dockler, who is entering the final year of his contract.
– David Pagnotta (TheFourthPeriod) June 27, 2023
The Capitals are desperate for a secondary scorer for the second line. With prospects Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson playing as first-line wingers for the Capitals, there is a definite need to score a net goal for the second line.
background
Duclair is a 27-year-old left winger and a former third-round pick (80th overall) by the New York Rangers in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. In the 20 games he played last season, Dockler scored 2 goals and had 7 assists for 9 points. Duclair was limited to play during the 2022-23 season due to an Achilles tendon injury he sustained during the most recent off-season that required surgery to repair. Although Duclair did not have much production in the regular season, he scored 4 goals and 7 assists for 11 points in 20 games during the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final.
In his career, he scored 122 goals and 139 assists for 261 points in the 490 games he played. He has two 20-goal seasons (2015-16 and 2019-20) and a 30-goal season (2021-22).
Although Duclair is only 27 years old, he has been a bit of a pioneer so far in his career. He started with the Rangers, then was traded to the Arizona Coyotes in March 2015. Arizona then traded Duclair to the Chicago Blackhawks in January 2018. The following season, Duclair signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets and was subsequently traded to the Ottawa Senators. Then in December 2020, Duclair signed a three-year deal with a $3 million cap with the Florida Panthers. Duclair is entering the final year of that 3-year deal.
Perform five on five on the ice
Here’s Duclair’s performance in the possession metrics during a five-on-five game last season.
The metric that really stands out here is his performance on goals in percentage (GF%), with the Panthers compiling 58.33% of goals scored while Duclair was on the ice. Obviously, a big part of this was playing with Barkov (14 goals of equal strength) and Carter Verheig (35 goals of equal strength). Everything else is pretty average, which isn’t too surprising considering Duclair’s back from a serious Achilles injury.
Here’s Duclair’s performance for the five-on-five generation last season:
The Panthers were very successful in converting on the slight majority of High Danger Chances (HDCF%) that they created. As we touched on earlier, this is largely due to the quality of the companions Duclair has been used with. We’ll also see in a minute why Duclair’s in-game five-to-five metrics are rather underwhelming.
Below is Doclair’s isolated impact chart, which measures his actual impact on his team’s performance when he’s on the ice vs. the bench:
As we touched on a bit, Duclair is very strong at generating offensive value in expected goals per sixty (xGF/60). Worryingly, the Panthers saw a 9% increase in expected goals per sixty (xGA/60) while Duclair was on the ice. This is concerning because the majority of Duclair’s ice time has come with Barkov, who has an isolated effect of -6% xGA/60. Verhaeghe has also had his struggles defensively in this regard (+7% xGA/60).
rate plus minus rate
The Average Plus Minus Rate (RAPM) is an effective way to measure a player’s performance in relation to the league, and in relation to the level of substitution. Here’s Duclair’s RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey:
As we can see, Duclair is fairly effective offensively during the five-on-five play, but he definitely has his struggles defensively. Any net positives from creating Corsi’s shot attempts (CF/60) significantly outweigh Corsi’s shot attempts per sixty (CA/60). His generating power of xGF/60 is surpassed by his rank of xGA/60.
fit list
Duclair can certainly contribute, both aggressively when he’s healthy and on his game. He would be an affordable addition to the second line, and some scoring could add that the Caps desperately need to add to the roster. The problem is that even with one of the best two-way centers in the game in Barkov, he still scores negative defensively.
The Capitals certainly don’t have any Selke candidates at roster center, so it could be a big risk to use Duclair in a top six round where he gets at least 16 minutes of time on the ice per game.
Does this make sense for hats?
In terms of making the money work, Duclair fits the bill much easier than a lot of the other names we’ve covered in this series. With Anthony Mantha and Evgeny Kuznetsov looking like they will return for the 2023-24 season, hat space will be tight and the need for a top scorer still remains. We’ve seen the proceeds from other cap offload deals around the league (Kevin Hayes kept 50% salary to the Blues in the sixth round after Hayes had an insultingly high production), and salary retention isn’t really on the table for the Capitals if they want to make a splash. in the trade market.
Can you count on Duclair’s offensive production to overcome his difficulties defensively? For a $3 million cap, and because it’s the final year of his deal, it’s a relatively low-risk option. If the Capitals were to acquire him without parting with a player on their current NHL roster, they would have $4,313,333 in cap space left to sign Martin Fehervary and add two roster players for depth.
Related reading:
Capitals attraction of target players: Vladislav Gavrikov
Capitals prospect acquisition target: Michael Bunting
Capitals prospect acquisition target: Nick Schmaltz
The goal of acquiring players’ potential capitals: Brock Boeser
Capitals prospect acquisition target: Ryan Graves
Capitals prospect acquisition target: Victor Arvidsson
The target for players’ potential capital gains: Elias Lindholm
By Justin Trudell