Kyrie Irving to the Dallas Mavericks, Rudy Gobert to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Two trades aging like milk.
Neither Tim Connelly of Minnesota nor Nico Harrison of Dallas, the head of the front offices for those organizations, are particularly complacent about the latest big trading spots, given how seasons have evolved. Dallas pulled the plug on any attempt to make the postseason with two games to go in an effort to retain their protected Top-10 selection this year. On the other hand, Minnesota pulled off the eighth seed and lost 1-0 to Denver after being pushed back in the opening game.
The question now becomes, which trade is worse, Rudy Gobert to Wolves or Kerry to the Mavs?
For a refresher, here are the details of these deals:
Get Timberwolves
Rudy Goubert
Jazz Jet
Malik Paisley and Patrick Beverly
Leandro Polmaro, Walker Kessler, Jared Vanderbilt
2023 First Round Pick (Unprotected), 2025 First Round Pick (Unprotected), 2027 First Round Pick (Unprotected),
2029 1st round (protected top-five finish)
Mavericks Get
Kyrie Irving
Markiv Morris
Nets Get
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dorian Finney Smith
2029 first-round pick, 2027 second-round pick
2029 second round
Let’s break it down into three categories: the spot value of the assets traded, the team’s short-term expectations, and their long-term positions after the trades.
The immediate value of the exchanged assets
The sheer price Minnesota shelled out for Rudy Gobert makes it worse to watch than the pennies on the dollar Dallas would have to send to Brooklyn for a superstar like Irving, who isn’t particularly close.
Walker Kessler is a lock to make the first team All-Rookie and likely to finish third in Rookie of the Year voting. He’s proven to be an effective offensive center and projects to be an elite edge guard – he’s fourth in the NBA in blocks as a rookie. Patrick Beverley, Jared Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley are all rotation players who will certainly earn minutes with the Wolves if they’re still in Minneapolis.
However, the big loss is of course all those picks Minnesota gave up. That’s a big part of their future out the door.
As for the Kerry deal, the loss of Dorian Feeney-Smith hurts that deal, the amicable deal they had with him (4yrs/£56m), and two, the fact that he was their best and most versatile defender. Dinwiddie is a good combo keeper, but Kerry’s arrival makes up for his departure. Overall, the pick Brooklyn got was paltry compared to what Minnesota sent out to Utah. This is not close
Loser: Minnesota Timberwolves
short term outlook
Here is where the comparison becomes more interesting. Besides his off the field and injury issues, another factor that has contributed to Kyrie’s downgraded move to Dallas is the fact that he’s out of contract this summer. Who knows where Irving will go next and what kind of contract he will command. Maybe Dallas has the inside track to re-sign him? maybe?
He is widely rumored to be interested in meeting LeBron James and could go to the Lakers, who would have the potential to sign Irving for a major deal this summer. The Kyrie run again floated with Kevin Durant in Phoenix. who do you know He can retire to run for president and no one will be shocked. This is Kerry’s job.
Minnesota has a much more stable immediate future. Freshly minted from the All Star squad, Anthony Edwards is likely to sign a maximum deal this season. Karl-Anthony Towns has already signed a 5-year/158m deal. They will also bring back veteran guard Mike Conley, utility man Kyle Anderson, and all-defensive winger Jaden McDaniels at least next year. While they will likely lose Nas Reed, they have a great deal of talent on the books to return next year.
Meanwhile, Dwight Powell and Christian Wood are both heading into free agency in Dallas. Combine their potential departures with Javale McGee and Davis Bertans both severely downplaying their big deals, and the near future could be ugly for Dallas.
Loser: Dallas Mavericks
long term position
Really when it comes to long-term planning after bad deals, it’s about getting out.
Even if Irving stays this summer, he’s on the wrong side of the 30 and is, at best, an ordinary defender. Add his troubles out of court, and he doesn’t return any kind of draw in a trade.
Building a team around Luka Doncic and Irving has always been a difficult task given how poorly these two heavy hitters can play leaving defense. It’s an especially difficult task given that Dallas has limited assets ahead.
If their selection this year reaches the top 10 or higher (79.8% chance of making it), they keep it. The upside to sticking with it is that this selection instantly becomes the best tradable asset. The downside is that the protections on their first-round pick owed to New York extend for another two years, which means that until they transfer, they’re limited in the picks they can handle. They’ve also sent a bunch of second-round picks out the door already.
Minnesota is vastly more willing to pivot. Even if Gobert never returns to his DPOY level and his contract becomes a heavy anchor pulling down their roster, they do have the players to redeem some of the assets they gave up. The most obvious step is to trade in Karl-Anthony Towns. Anthony Edwards is better than KAT on both ends of the earth and he is younger. If someone is outside the door, it’s the ANT.
One of Towns value leaders on the open market will be Trae Young, who may be flying in from Atlanta this summer. Both KAT and Young are generational offensive talents with defensive responsibilities and have great variance in their inventory around the league.
While the Rudy Gobert trade will continue to be the butt of more jokes on Twitter, the truth is that Dallas’ gamble on Kyrie could be a major domino in Luka’s eventual exit from Dallas due to the Mavericks’ inability to surround a competitive roster. .
Loser: Dallas Mavericks
Conclusion
There are no winners here. Both trades set these two teams back after notable appearances in the postseason last year. The Wolves’ return to the playoffs for only the second time since 2004-05 confirmed that the team was on an upward trajectory. Meanwhile, Doncic carrying Dallas to the Western Conference Finals seemed like a testament to his ability to deliver and endure under the rosters as talented as Cleveland’s young LeBron.
Given the size of the hole Dallas now finds itself in, I tend to judge their acquisition of Kyrie as worse than Minnesota’s acquisition of Gobert. However, what Minnesota was handed out would go down in NBA infamy.