The Orlando Magic, despite being among the worst teams in the NBA this season, appears to be on the right track in rebuilding. Two seasons ago, they traded superstar Nikola Vucevic to the Chicago Bulls and finally hit bottom after several seasons of mediocrity. Then they drafted rising star Franz Wagner in 2021, followed by Paolo Panchero with the first overall pick in last year’s draft.
While they haven’t been particularly good this season, they’ve made promising strides and have not one but two lottery picks they can use to improve their team further. With the sixth worst record in the NBA, the Magic can have the sixth pick, but they can also move up or down in the draft standings.
Orlando could also get the Bulls option, which was acquired as part of the Vucevic trade. The selection is protected from the top four. However, with the draft lottery rolling out on May 16th, luck might strike the magic and have both choices. But what are the odds of that? Let’s take a look at Magic’s full draft odds.
Orlando Magic completes NBA draft prospects
First choice – 9.0%
Second choice – 9.2%
Third choice – 9.4%
Fourth choice – 9.6%
Despite finishing sixth from the bottom of the league standings, the Magic have a 37.2% chance of climbing into the top four. Obviously, the hope is that they get the first overall pick, but picking a top four pick is still confusing, especially in this draft. After all, with the exception of Victor Wimpanyama, there seems to be an increasingly smaller consensus on who is the second, third or fourth best prospect.
Sixth choice – 8.6%
Seventh choice – 29.7%
8th choice – 20.6%
9th choice – 3.7%
10th choice – 0.2%
Although the Magic have a one in three probability of landing a top four pick, they have a 54.2% chance of being drafted. In fact, their most likely draft spot is actually seventh or eighth, which would be disappointing because it lowers their chances of finding a future superstar. Even if this worst-case scenario were to happen, they would probably have an extra lottery pick. Let’s take a look at the lottery odds for picking bulls next.
First choice – 1.7%
second choice 1.9%
Third choice – 2.1%
Fourth choice – 2.4%
As for picking bulls, the odds of them jumping into the top four and not being moved is just 8.3%. The most likely scenario is that he remains the 12th pick and transfers to Magic.
Pick 12 -85.2
13th choice – 6.7
14 pick 0.1
Ultimately, Magic has a better than one in three chance of making the top four. That would be huge for their rookie franchise, but they could instead fall down the lottery draft order. Fortunately, they also likely have a pick of the bulls, which should soften the blow if the worst-case scenario were to occur.