FLOURHAM PARK, NJ — It’s the ultimate “get rich quick” scheme: A perpetual loser, thinking he’s one player away from greatness (and feeling pressured to get there), abandons his long-term plan for a year or two shooting the Super Bowl.
These are the 2023 New York Jets, who are desperately hoping their acquisition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers will allow them to be like Tom Brady and the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: a successful marriage of an all-star franchise and an aging legend in search of another Super Bowl bell.
Considering all the key factors—a huge gaping quarterback, now successful defense and emerging stars in rookie decades—the trade for the former Green Bay Packers star makes sense. Even at 39, one year into his fourth MVP season, he’s giving them a shot at hitting the stacked AFC. This was not the case over a decade ago. For change, there is real hope.
The Bucs, in similar circumstances, did just that with Brady. After a 12-year drought and a seven-win season (like the Jets either way), they signed Brady, who changed the losing culture, at age 43, galvanized the organization and threw plenty of touchdowns to lead the Bucs to a Super Bowl title in his first season. Unfortunately for the Jets, Rodgers was not a free agent. The Packers traded Rodgers, their 2023 first-round pick (#15) and their 2023 fifth-round pick (#170) to the Jets for a 2023 New York first-round pick (#13), a 2023 second-round pick (#42), a sixth-round pick for 2023 (#207) and a conditional 2024 second pick who becomes first if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps this season, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Monday. The price isn’t prohibitive for a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and the cap ($15.8 million in 2023) is acceptable.
So yes, the famous quarterback can leave his team forever, go to a new part of the country and turn losers into winners. Jets owner Woody Johnson can see it now: Rodgers ecstatic, rides down Broadway in a ribbon parade, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy to wide receiver Garrett Wilson in a drive-by — a nod to the famous Brady Cup in the Bucks’ riverboat victory parade.
That would be an odyssey for the franchise that has gone 54 seasons without a Super Bowl appearance.
“If they win the Super Bowl, it will be worth it, but there are a lot of risks,” said a longtime executive who believed the Jets had better sign the “safer” Derek Carr. “The Jets didn’t need to hit a home run. They have a juggernaut of defense and some skillful talent. All they needed was a double.”
Presumably, Rodgers sees the Jets the way Brady saw the Bucs—an undervalued asset. The Bucs had interesting bits and pieces, and they added a few that were drawn to Tampa because of Brady’s presence. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, the defensive coordinator at the time, recalled the intangible impact on the franchise.
“There’s a lot of buzz when you find someone like that in your building,” Bowles told ESPN. “They give you a lot of hope. You bring in a lot of character, a proven winner who did. It excites the fan base and makes everyone on the team do their best if they haven’t already. No one wants to give up on a guy like that.”
Rodgers could have the same effect on the Jets, making them a free agent destination. It’s a big reason former Packers wide receiver Allen Lazard decided to join the party. If they can solidify the offensive line with a signing and/or draft pick, the way the Bucs did by drafting right tackle Tristan Wirfs in 2020, Rodgers will have a real chance of success.
He already has a solid relationship with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, his coordinator with the Packers from 2019 to 2021 — that’s huge. Speaking on “The Pat McAfee Show,” Rodgers identified Hackett as the main reason for choosing the Jets. They can skip the dating period and get right to work. It also means Rodgers won’t have to learn an entirely new offense, which should come as a relief. Older players, who are often stuck in their ways, would rather not have to deal with the hassle of mastering new game rules.
That was a problem for Brady, who struggled with Tampa’s Bruce Arians system before its renewal late in the 2020 season—a turning point on his way to the Super Bowl. Rodgers will not suffer from this aggravation. He has a coach he loves and a system he knows.
“[He’s a] Hall of Fame coach Robert Salih said of Rodgers during the run-up to the Jets-Packers game last season: “He’s a special talent, obviously. He gets the ball where you want it to go. He gets him there quickly.” [He] The play can change on the line of scrimmage. He makes everyone around him better. He challenges you from a defensive standpoint to substitutions in everything. He deserves everything he got in his life.”
That’s not to say there aren’t concerns, some of the same questions that popped up in 2008 when the Jets acquired Brett Favre from the Packers — namely, age and commitment:
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Will Rodgers’ body start to fall apart? Brady was an anomaly. Consider: Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers hit 39 and out. Eli Manning made it to 38. Drew Brees made it to 41, but he missed nine games over his last two years. Father Time usually begins to assert itself around the elite players’ 40th birthday. Rodgers turns 40 on December 2.
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Does he really want to invest in planes? Rodgers said he was 90% retired before the darkness receded in February. Now, all of a sudden, is it all? Rodgers, who usually skips the voluntary portion of the offseason, is having to change his ways to make this work. Instead of meditating and cleansing his body in secret retreats, he owes the team his presence. They need a leader who can unify and revitalize the dressing room, something previous starter Zack Wilson failed to do. One thing about Brady: His off-season preparation, for himself and the team, borders on obsession.
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Was Rodgers’ pedestrian performance of 2022 (26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, no passing games for 300 yards) an out or a starting running back? “He didn’t look so good last year — you can’t call it an aberration when a guy is 39,” said the personnel executive. The Jets aren’t worried because they believe Rodgers’ injured right thumb, which is now healed, was a big part of the problem.
If all goes well — if Rodgers bounces back from last year, fully commits to the team and stays healthy — the Jets should be competitive. But the AFC is full of star players, and Rodgers has to be vintage to outpace the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.
Aircraft ready to seize this opportunity. They could have made a stronger play for the younger Carr, 31, who ended up signing a four-year, $150 million contract with the New Orleans Saints, but they were so adamant about Rodgers. The organization has no faith in Wilson, the former No. 2 overall pick. The draft presents some interesting prospects, but they’re likely out of reach for the Jets, which pick the 13th overall.
Through the confusion of Wilson’s pick, they are caught between Rodgers and Hard Place. They could have sat around, wishing Wilson a miracle or throwing obscene money at Carr, a mediocre rookie. Instead, the planes take a chance for the ages. Its decision-makers will be flattered or fired. They need to get rich quick.