Only once in NBA history has a team overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Finals. You remember LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Now, the Miami Heat will attempt to erase a 3-1 deficit, starting with a win in Game 5 Monday night in Denver. The Nuggets are, once again, a firm favorite and our experts pick Denver to take the title at Ball Arena.
On the brink of irreplaceable condition in the league’s greatest season, the Golden State Warriors surrendered three straight wins to Cleveland — including Game 7 at Oracle Arena — as the Cavaliers won their only franchise championship in 2016.
The other 35 teams that faced a 3-1 deficit lost in this round.
Those are the odds the Heat faces after losing two games in Miami to fall behind 3-1 to the Nuggets. One more win would give Denver its first NBA title – and a well-earned title.
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Nuggets vs. Heat
8:30 p.m. ET on Mondays on ABC
What are the odds of a Nuggets vs. Heat match?
series: Nuggets lead 3-1
String odds: Nuggets – 5000, heat +1800
Nikola Jokic is on his way to becoming the first player in NBA history to lead the postseason in total points, rebounds and assists. Jamal Murray lost double-digit dimes in each of the first four games of the Finals. In lulls – like when Jokić got into nasty trouble in the second half of Game 4 – key contributions from the likes of Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown and the rest of the Nuggets filled the gap.
All of which means this Nuggets team is one win away from glory for a reason.
Miami faces an uphill battle in Game 5, going 8.5 points in favor of Denver. Although the Heat did steal Game 2 in the Ball Arena, the Nuggets’ famous advantage in the home arena — 9-1 with a 10.4-point margin in the postseason — factors into that, as does the talent gap between these sides from top to bottom.
If the Nuggets shut this down, don’t waste time looking for Finals MVP long shots. That would be Jokić, averaging 30.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 8 assists in the final game. Jokic and Murray drive everything Denver has done offensively.
But if Miami can dig deep to get Game 5 out, the Heat will be just one home game 6 away from breaking into history. It will be their best feint yet in a playoff run packed with them.
Expert Picks for Nuggets vs. Heat
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(Photo by Nikola Jokic: Mike Ehrman/Getty Images)