Any doubt about Gonzaga’s being a blue basketball player may have been dispelled the moment Jeff Nelson opened up his laptop computer last week to reveal private information related to the latest realignment round.
Nelson is the president of Navigate, a respected Chicago-based consulting firm that has been used by many conferences to assist with realignment efforts over the years. Navigate is currently working with Gonzaga on a possible transfer to the Big 12 or the Pac-12.
Navigate evaluated how the nation’s top basketball programs have ranked against power conference opponents in regular season play over the past three years using a metric called “TV Power.”
Gonzaga is a surprising fifth on that list. It falls behind Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina and Kansas but Before Ohio State, Michigan State, Arkansas, and Tennessee round out the top ten.
Cold blood? Gonzaga? Small sample size? It’s all still up for debate, but the value of the Zags is reflected in the shifting priorities of the Big 12. While the league Interest in recruiting Pac-12 teams It remains, the addition of Gonzaga (basketball only) and UConn (full membership) dominating league talks.
The Big 12 continues to wait for the Pac-12 to reveal a new media rights figure to its members before taking the next step in this endeavor. Meanwhile, the league has been more aggressive lately in pursuing their basketball interests, especially after the Big 12 Spring Meetings last week.
Commissioner Brett Yormark confirmed that expansion had been discussed. The situation was further described to CBS Sports this way: There was a “mutual admiration” at the presidential level between Gonzaga and the Big 12; However, there is stronger “impetus” for UConn to join the league than Gonzaga at the moment.
“We will look at all options,” said Yormark. “We see the upside in basketball for all the right reasons. We think it’s undervalued and there’s an opportunity for us to double down on the No. 1 basketball conference in America, but football is the driver. We all know that.”
It’s no secret that Yormark has a distinct and long-term vision for basketball, which eventually includes separate media rights contracts for basketball and football. It’s never been done, at least in the modern era of the Power Five. Basketball has always lagged behind in the ratings with football being the main source of revenue.
Yormark believes, with interest in streaming real estate on the rise, college basketball will be more valuable to more suitors in the future. There are those who differ in the industry. One major issue: Any move to separate media rights would have to wait at least seven years for the Big 12’s new media rights agreement to expire in 2031.
This wouldn’t stop the Big 12 from adding two national powerhouses to what is already the No. 1 college basketball league. Either addition would play into Yormark’s stated intent of making the Big 12 “smaller, cooler.”
Gonzaga received an annual valuation of $15 million, per one industry source, should it join the Power Five basketball conference. That’s less than half of what members of the Big 12 will get ($31.7 million) starting in 2025. The number tied to UConn is less clear in that basketball will be central to any deal with a modestly regarded independent football player.
It’s safe to say that the addition of such a unique pair of national basketball programs as expansion candidates was rarely—if ever—attempted in the Five Powers era.
Local feeling towards the UConn movement has been described as mixed.
On the one hand, migration to Adult 12 will cause the school to lose its identity; It would be to lose at least some ties with Northeast and Big East rivals to play in remote outposts like Stillwater, Oklahoma, and Ames, Iowa.
UConn, which is entering its fourth year returning to the Big East, will owe the conference at least $30 million in exit fees if it leaves before its seventh year as a member. That’s for a sports division that’s reportedly $53 million in the red already.
Huskies are a snapshot of the realignment itself. Prior to this year, their last national championship was achieved in 2014 as a member of America where they played two of the Big 12’s four most recent expansion teams: Houston and UCF.
The Big East has regained much of the old bravado and respectability because UConn is a member. With the addition of Georgetown (Ed Cooley) and St. John’s (Rick Pitino) as two important coaches this off-season, the league is getting stronger. A veteran Big East source suggested that moving to the Big 12 would not only enable suitors to come after UConn coach Danny Hurley, but the coach might start looking elsewhere himself.
On the other hand, well, there’s the big 12 money. According to a 12-year deal signed with Fox in 2012, the 11-team Big East averages $42 million annually, or $3.8 million per school. (UConn left the Big East for America in 2013 and returned to the Big East in 2020.) The Big 12 just distributed $440 million in total revenue to its 10 members for the 2022-23 fiscal year, averaging $44 million per school. Though again, this is backed by soccer rights.
UConn won’t get it that Any time soon, but think of any new additions to the Big 12 as a growth stock if handled the right way. With the SEC and Big Ten dominating college athletics, the idea might be to pool as many brands as possible to become the #3 conference in the standings. This is important in terms of security, finances, and access to both the NCAA Tournament and college football hem.
In the end, the Big 12 may appeal to UConn’s sensibilities. In the re-alignment game, the school has rarely been courted this. Yormark is a guy from the Northeast with big ideas and extensive connections to New York.
His association is already considering a series of exhibition basketball games at New York’s famous Rucker Park next summer. Consider Kansas, Baylor, O’Conne and Gonzaga participating. This is the last of three national champions plus the Zags have played for the national title twice since 2017 and have been to eight consecutive Sweet 16 appearances.
The evolving mystery turns to who will pay for Gonzaga and UConn. It’s highly unlikely that Fox or ESPN would want to reopen a Big 12 deal that hasn’t started yet, especially with the Zags as a basketball-only member. Financially, UConn football would be almost an afterthought in the Big 12, which indicates how much Yormark values basketball for making the move.
Sources tell CBS Sports that the money, at least for Gonzaga, will likely come from within the league. Schools may sacrifice some of their current quota to entice vigilantes and/or huskies. Plus, the Big 12 is still sitting on the $100 million combined buyout it got from Texas and Oklahoma.
This is where Navigate gets involved in determining Gonzaga’s assessment of a new league. There are qualifiers. UConn—with its five national championships—ranked 38th in the TV Power measure. And despite its national appeal, Gonzaga has played fewer than 20 regular season games against powerhouse conference competition over the past three seasons. (Michigan State, No. 8 in TV Power, played 71).
This plays into Gonzaga’s interest in moving up in the class. She considers herself equal on the playing field with those traditional blue bloods. It’s no secret that the Pac-12 – a much better geographic fit for the Zags – makes a huge move despite its current situation.
Basketball is usually worth 15% to 20% of the Power Five’s media rights deal. In the Big 12, that would come to about $5 million or $6 million. QUESTION: Can Gonzaga take more than that share as a stand-alone national power to the Big 12 or Pac-12?
If Gonzaga were to negotiate based on that $15 million annual valuation, the Big 12 would seek $1.25 million from each of its members. (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF join on a rolling scale and will not have immediate full quotas.)
Since 2019 when Mountain West recalled Gonzaga, Zags have gained a weighted share of WCC revenue. And for good reason. They have accounted for over 70% of the “units” accumulated by the WCC since 1999. Teams participating in the NCAA Tournament earn these units for every win.
WCC has secured six units from the 2023 tournament for a total of $12 million, According to Sportico. The Big 12 ranked second nationally to the SEC with 16 units worth $32 million. The Big East finished third with 15 units and $30 million.
These units account for the vast majority of the WCC’s revenue. She has television deals with ESPN and CBS Sports Network. Four years ago, when MWC showed interest, Gonzaga had leverage after faking something close to a blue-blood condition. It has made the championship 24 consecutive seasons not counting the 2020 COVID-19 season.
“It wasn’t easy by any means,” former Gonzaga athletic director Mike Roth said of the weighted revenue split. “It was different. There were some inside the conference who said, ‘No one does it that way.'” On the Gonzaga side of the conference, my comment was, “Yeah but no one has someone at the conference do what Gonzaga did.”
“All of a sudden, the West Coast Conference, we were kind of out there on what other people are talking about. I know the Pac-12 are having the same discussions.” [regarding weighted shares]. The conference went very well.”
Going into the Big 12, Gonzaga and UConn will have to leave those units earned in the old leagues. Obviously, there are larger considerations. The Power Five conferences each earned $80 million in College Football Playoff money alone, primarily for being the Power Five conferences.
Gonzaga veers smaller, according to Navigate’s research, drawing in an audience outside of its natural footprint. UConn’s fanbase is more local. Navigate metrics show that Gonzaga’s ratings against powerhouse opponents are 2.5 times higher than the Big 12 game average. Since 2017, Gonzaga has the highest winning percentage against powerhouse teams at 78%.
There are travel partners to go with both possibilities. If the Big 12 were able to land Colorado, it would give them three members in the Mountain Time Zone, along with Gonzaga and BYU. (Gonzaga does not sponsor football. Her minor sports will also be in the Big 12.)
Will UConn be coaxed into more Big 12 money and “nearby” teams in Cincinnati, West Virginia, and UCF?
This may all depend on your definition of smaller and cooler.