And here we go again.
It wasn’t long ago that the Leafs Nation were reeling from a tough Game 7 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Leafs had multiple opportunities to close out the series, but with the story running over the past decade, it just wasn’t meant to be.
So, when it became clear that Toronto and Tampa would meet again — and that fact sank in around November — you just had to wonder what would be different this time around. The team has added depth at every position, while Tampa Bay still looks like the same solid group we’re used to.
For Toronto, there is one major difference: the man between the tubes. Ilya Samsonov is Toronto’s No. 1, replacing Jack Campbell a year ago and trailing Matt Murray all season. He’s up against the best goalkeeper of the last decade, but anything can happen in the case of seven matches. Especially for Samsonov, who has stolen more than a handful of games this season.
It will be a good match between two of the best Russian goalkeepers in the league. So, let’s break things down:
Match date
No goaltender over the past decade has been as good as Vasilevskiy in the post-season. In 99 starts, he has a 63-38-0 record with a 0.923 save percentage and seven shutouts. Six of those donuts came in elimination matches, which was a big reason the Bolts advanced to the cup final three years in a row. When matches matter, there is no better goalkeeper than Vasilevskiy.
Samsonov has just eight playoff games to his credit, going 1-6-0 with a . 907 save percentage with Washington. That loss wasn’t all his fault, but his inability to get the job done is partly why the Capitals chose to move on from him in the first place. Samsonov’s -2.11 goal saves above average put him near the bottom of the league over the past two years, while Vasilevskiy dwarfs all with his 15.94 GSAA.
So when it comes to the playoff experience, it’s not quite even close.
season to date
There have been questions about who will come out on top in Toronto this year. Matt Murray seemed to have the advantage, given his tournament success and experience. But Samsonov was the youngster trying to recover from a rough patch in Washington that saw him go from crease receiver to kennel very quickly.
But Samsonov was great, posting a 27-10-5 record with four shutouts and a . 919 save percentage. Samsonov’s advanced analytics were among the best in the NHL in the first half before eventually hitting a wall around Christmas. He finished it off with a 3-1-1 record in the last five games, allowing only six goals and finished it off with a solid 45 save effort against Florida. It was easily Samsonov’s best season of his career, and he established himself as the team’s goalie of the future if the Leafs could come to an agreement with the suspended UFA.
Meanwhile, Vasilevsky was doing business as usual. He had four shutouts and a 34-22-4 record to go along with a 0.915 save percentage—0.001 less than his total from last year. Once again, Vasilevskiy was one of the best goalkeepers in the league, but he’s felt a little more laid-back than usual given how great he’s been in recent years. He’s riding a six-year streak with at least 30 or more referees, and his playing time is down by three games this season – maybe he’ll be more comfortable?
season series
It’s crazy, but Samsonov only has two games against Tampa Bay – neither of them with Toronto. He made 26 stops in a win on December 14, 2019, then made 25 stops on his way to a win last season. Those starts were so spread out and didn’t really matter in a long time, but it’s crazy to think he had so little experience against a team like that.
Meanwhile, Vasilevsky went 14-10-2 with a . 920 save percentage in 26 regular season games against the Leafs during his career. Of course, he picked up four wins a year ago during the playoffs, but he’s actually lost both of his starts against Toronto this season — including the game earlier this week.
Regular season stats are fun and all, but how you play is all that matters when it matters most. And this is where Vasilevskiy has a clear advantage.
what are you expecting
After watching Jack Campbell take a swing at Vasilevskiy a year ago, it’s Samsonov’s turn to do the same. And maybe it’s me, but that’s the most confident I’ve felt about the Leafs’ first-round progression in regular playoff form — not those weirder covid-affected 2020 and 2021 seasons. When Samsonov’s hot, he can hang out with the best of them this year.
Vasilevskiy is still Vasilevskiy, and lightning is still lightning. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Bolts went the distance again this year. They’re heavyweights who fear no one, and if they beat Toronto, they’ll give Boston a challenge. Vasilevskiy is one of the best playoff performers we’ve seen in decades, and he’s still in his prime.
Samsonov can’t be great if the Leafs are going to move on from here. Given the heights this season has brought us, there is a strong possibility that Samsonov will shine as long as the team gives him enough support, something we haven’t seen very often in the past few years in play-off time.