After a grueling seven-game series, can the teams maintain their high level of play and succeed?
History does not look good on teams playing seven games in the previous series, as the Miami Heat did in the Eastern Conference Finals. Based on recent history, the Heat is in trouble in the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets.
Of course, the Heat are massive underdogs in the series, north of +300 depending on where you look, but it doesn’t help that the team had to win on the road in Game 7 in Boston Monday night and is now fast. Switched to play on the road in Denver on Thursday, who have been out for over a week.
There are diminishing returns for teams who have played seven games in the previous round, notes Raheem Palmer of The Ringer.
Of course, the Celtics played in a seven-game semifinal series against the Philadelphia-76ers and ran out of gas against the Heat, which helped the trend.
What’s even more troubling for the Heat is that the teams in Game 1 following Game 7 fared even worse, posting a winning percentage of less than 39%. Of course, the Heat is a Game 1 underdog, so the team’s odds are already low, but going forward Miami could meet a similar fate as the team they beat in ECF, running out of gas and failing to keep up. With a talented team that has more gas left in the tank.
For now, let’s take a look at the Game 1 odds as well as our betting preview:
Heat odds versus nuggets, distribution and total
The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.