NBA Finals Predictions
Fans get an intriguing matchup for this year’s NBA Finals between the blazing-hot
#1-seeded Denver Nuggets and the fearless #8-seeded Miami Heat squad. The
Nuggets, led by two-time MVP C Nikola Jokic, surprisingly dismantled the Los Angeles
Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, completing a perfect 4-0 sweep. On the
contrary, the Miami Heat had to grind out to represent the East, playing a full
seven-game series to do so after starting out with a 3-0 lead.
The Finals kick off on Thursday, June 1st at 8:30 PM ET, airing on ABC. The game
site for Game 1 will be at Ball Arena in Denver, being that they are the higher seed.
Currently, the spread is heavily favoring Denver in Game 1 by -9.0. The total for this
game sits at 219 (Caesar’s Sportsbook).
In this article, I will be providing team breakdowns that include each team’s
strengths and the essential questions that each team must effectively answer to raise
the Larry O’Brien Trophy and ultimately become the 2023 NBA Finals champion. I will
also offer my own personal takes on the series.
Nuggets Team Breakdown:
The Denver Nuggets have been nothing short of incredible during this playoffs,
boasting a 12-3 record thus far, cashing in with wins in all of their home games. Surely,
they are coming in with the rest advantage in this one, with their last game being eleven
days ago compared to Miami only coming in with only three days of rest. Statistically, in
the past few years, teams that have had more rest in the previous series tend to do
better than their opponents in the conference finals, working out in Denver’s favor.
Another thing working out for Denver is that the first two games will be played at home,
as they are 42-7 at Ball Arena, overall. Being that Denver is at a higher elevation, there is
less oxygen available to players, which makes it an additional hurdle that any away
opponent has to get over.
In terms of why they are winning, you can thank the two-time MVP C Nikola Jokic,
who has been averaging an astounding 29.9 points per game, 13.3 rebounds per game,
and 10.3 assists per game through fifteen playoff games. He offers the unique ability to
score from all three levels at the center position, from heavily contested layups to
threes, while also possessing the point-guard-like vision and finding open shooters.
Alongside him is PG Jamal Murray, who has had a run of his own as of late (27.7
playoff PPG). These two can work out of the pick and roll effectively, acting as a
beneficiary for both of their games, creating several good looks for the Nuggets offense
on a consistent basis. He has been known for being clutch in the 4th quarter, which is
why he has the most career playoff 20+ point 4th quarters (4) by any player over the last
25 years.
A few other factors that have contributed to Denver’s success throughout their
run are what their bench offers. The principal bench guys coach Michael Malone runs
with are SF Bruce Brown, PF Jeff Green, and rookie G Christian Braun, who offer extra
depth to an already-stacked starting five. Last but not least, Michael Malone deserves a
lot of the credit for Denver’s success by putting together this roster over the last 5-10
years. Starters PF Aaron Gordon and SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have been huge
additions made by Malone recently that offer them two-way abilities as defenders and
shooters. Overall, this is a group that should be feared.
Heat Team Breakdown:
The Miami Heat have undoubtedly had the toughest road to the Finals, having to
go through the #1-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, the #5-seeded New York Knicks, as well as
the #2-seeded Boston Celtics. Ironically, their previous series was where they had to dig
the deepest as a group to win, despite winning the first three games against the Celtics
in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics responded with three straight wins to
match the Heat to force a Game 7 and it looked like they could complete the first 3-0
comeback in NBA history, but in the end, the Heat pulled through. Although Miami won
the ECF, it is very concerning that they dropped three games in a row to an inconsistent
Boston Celtics team because Denver isn’t a team to fool around with.
In terms of why Miami got here, it is because they are playing with an unmatched
level of grit and determination that very few teams play with. On the defensive side of
the ball, Miami leads several of the playoff statistics, such as deflections per game,
loose balls recovered per game, charges drawn per game, and box outs per game. Even
though these hustle stats don’t appear on the box score, they definitely matter and could
be the slight difference that puts the Heat over the hump in some of the games here.
On the offensive side, Jimmy Butler has been terrific averaging 28.5 points per
game, 7.0 rebounds per game, and 5.7 assists per game while shooting nearly 50% from
the field during the postseason. He has been clutch in crunch time, hitting big shots and
making key plays on both ends of the floor. Butler is not afraid of anyone, and he will not
back down from the challenge of guarding Jamal Murray or Nikola Jokic. He will also
make them work on defense, attacking them relentlessly and drawing fouls. Butler is a
leader who sets the tone for his team with his intensity and passion. He is a superstar
whose dominant play is necessary in order to carry his team to victories.
Miami C Bam Adebayo is dominating at the right time as well, as he is emerging
as one of the best big men in the league, serving as a perfect complement for Jimmy
Butler. He has the size, strength, speed, and agility to guard multiple positions, from
centers to guards, allowing him to be a premier defensive anchor for his team. He has
the IQ, instincts, and awareness to protect the rim, switch on screens, rotate and help,
and disrupt passing lanes. Adebayo will have his hands full with Jokic, who is arguably
the best center in the league and a triple-double threat every night. But Adebayo has
shown that he can handle elite big men, having limited Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel
Embiid in previous rounds. Adebayo will make Jokic work for every point, rebound and
assist, and he will also make him pay on the other end with his athleticism and skill.
Finally, the Heat have had an outstanding supporting cast with the likes of elite
shooters in PG Kyle Lowry, F Duncan Robinson, and SG Max Strus, who must get going
for the Heat to win games. Recently, Caleb Martin added his name to this list with
several key performances in the ECF against the Celtics (19.3 PPG in ECF).
Injuries:
Denver Nuggets:
None
Miami Heat:
PG Tyler Herro (Hand) Out
Tyler Herro has been ramping up basketball activities and potentially could make
a return later in this series, as he could be a much-needed piece in the series. Statuses
and betting odds subject to change.
Prediction:
At the end of the day, this boils down to a few essential questions for each team.
For the Nuggets, they must effectively answer the following questions: Can DEN PG
Jamal Murray stay offensively consistent? Can MPJ not only remain healthy, but be a
two-way threat? Can DEN PF Aaron Gordon proficiently guard Jimmy Butler? Will Jokic
continue to find scoring opportunities against Bam Adebayo?
For the Heat, they must answer the following questions as a squad: Can Butler
continue his offensive tear and outduel Nikola Jokic? Can Miami’s premier shooting hit
on their three-point looks? Can MIA C Bam Adebayo and this Miami defense stay gritty
and locked in for 48 minutes each game?
In this series, I see Jamal Murray and Jokic continue getting the looks they want.
Miami should not be fully counted out though, as they are the toughest defense that
Michael Malone’s group has had to face this playoffs. Give me the Denver Nuggets to
raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy and win their first NBA Finals in franchise history, with
Nikola Jokic winning the Finals MVP. Denver in 5
Sources: ESPN.com, Caesars Sportsbook, NBA.com
Written by: Thomas Sirianni on 6/1/23 at 11:39 AM ET
