This year, NBA fans get an exciting pair of 2020 Western and Eastern Conference
Finals rematches featuring several generational talents in LAL F LeBron James, DEN C
Nikola Jokic, BOS SF Jayson Tatum, and MIA SF Jimmy Butler. This repeat of history
undoubtedly solidifies that these four teams are the real deal.
In the West, the #1-seeded Denver Nuggets are squaring off with the #7-seeded
Los Angeles Lakers. Game 1 of the series tips off on Tuesday, May 16th at 8:30 PM ET,
airing on ESPN. The game will take place at Ball Arena in Denver. The spread moderately
favors Denver in Game 1 by -6.0, while the total sits at 222 (Caesar’s Sportsbook).
The #2-seeded Boston Celtics face off in the East with the #8-seeded Miami
Heat. Game 1 of this one tips off on Wednesday, May 17th, at 8:30 PM ET, airing on TNT.
The site of the game will be at TD Garden. The spread in Wednesday’s Game 1 heavily
favors Boston by -8.0, while the total is 210.5 (Caesar’s Sportsbook). With each team
possessing its pair of superstars, we’ll see which two teams will prevail to ultimately
compete for the Larry O’Brien Trophy in the NBA Finals.
Western Conference Finals:
This fun WCF matchup interestingly spotlights a #1-ranked offensive rating in the
playoffs with the Nuggets and a #1-ranked defensive rating in the playoffs with the
Lakers, so it will surely be a clash. Starting with Denver, they will thrive due to having the
rest advantage coming into this series, having played only 11 games this playoffs
compared to the Lakers extra game of wear-and-tear, having played 12 games so far.
Statistically, in the past few years, teams that have had more rest in the two previous
series tend to do better than their opponents in the conference finals, working out in
Denver’s favor. Another thing working out for Denver is that the first two games will be
played at home, as they are 38-7 at Ball Arena, overall. Offensively, it will be engaging to
see MVP candidate Jokic’s role as a passer and if he will continue to have the ability to
pass out of double teams to find open shooters.
Another thing that has played a role in the Nuggets success is their bench. The
principal bench guys coach Michael Malone runs with are SF Bruce Brown, PF Jeff
Green, and rookie G Christian Braun. On the Lakers side of the equation, they have
gotten great play from SG Austin Reeves recently, boasting a 16-6 record with him in the
starting lineup. L.A. hit the lottery at this season’s trade deadline, going out and getting
PG D’Angelo Russell and PF Jarrod Vanderbilt from Minnesota, as well as PF Rui
Hachimura from Washington. These players have been huge for L.A., as they take much
pressure off of LeBron as a scorer. For each team, it boils down to a few main essential
questions:
Denver’s questions: Can DEN PG Jamal Murray stay offensively consistent? Can
MPJ not only remain healthy, but be a two-way threat? Can DEN PF Aaron Gordon
defend LeBron James?
Los Angeles’ questions: Who can take pressure off of LeBron James? Can LAL C
Anthony Davis guard Jokic and stay healthy at the same time?
I still see Jokic being able to get what he wants here in this series. Mike Malone’s
bench will outplay Darvin Ham’s bench. Give me the Denver Nuggets in 6 games.
Prediction: Denver in 6
Eastern Conference Finals:
These playoffs, it seems the Boston Celtics have barely escaped from their first
two series, beating Atlanta and Philadelphia in six games. On the other hand, Miami has
only played 11 games, differentiating themselves with a five-game finish over the East’s
top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. Regarding the Heat, they have literally been on fire.
Jimmy Butler is averaging 31.1 PPG this playoffs, which is outstanding. This is
complemented by Miami’s elite shooters in PG Kyle Lowry, F Duncan Robinson, and SG
Max Strus, who must get going for the Heat to win games. On the defensive side, Miami
leads several of the playoff statistics, such as deflections per game, loose balls
recovered per game, charges drawn per game, and box outs per game. Even though
these hustle stats don’t appear on the box score, they definitely matter and could be the
slight difference that puts the Heat over the hump. The Celtics have shown significant
highs and significant lows during this postseason. The solid and tall starting 5 they have
been running with allows them to switch on all screens and still be able to play solid
defense, which really helps. On offense, Boston should be able to create mismatches for
themselves and have their stars get downhill for inside scoring opportunities. Overall,
the star power of Jayson Tatum (28.2 PPG in playoffs) and SG Jaylen Brown (24.6 PPG
in playoffs) must be present for Boston here to avoid the series upset. In the long run,
this series will also boil down to some essential questions, just as the WCF:
Boston’s questions: Can Tatum and Brown get the mismatches they want and
capitalize on them? Can Boston stay disciplined and keep up with Miami’s hustle?
Miami’s questions: Can Butler continue his offensive tear and outduel Jayson
Tatum? Can Miami’s premier shooting hit on their three-point looks? Can MIA C Bam
Adebayo and this Miami defense stay gritty and locked in for 48 minutes each game?
Although the Celtics rank higher in offensive and defensive ratings in the
postseason, I just like how much more consistently Miami is playing right now. They are
playing with an unmatched level of grit and decision-making right now that is hard to
beat. Give me the upset pick of Miami in a hard-fought 7 games.
Prediction: Miami in 7
Sources: ESPN.com, Caesars Sportsbook, NBA.com
Written by: Thomas Sirianni on 5/16/23 at 11:53 AM ET
