It’s the day the 2023 NFL schedule is released, bringing us one step closer to the start of the season.
In this piece, I’ll examine the board down to the nuts and bolts. How does this schedule affect the fantasy football scene? Who are the easiest and hardest players? What are the 14 teams that will participate in the playoffs? How about an early look at the 2024 draft order?
Some housekeeping before diving into this. First, week 18 was included in the phantom analysis because removing it would have only a minor effect on the results. Next, the strength of the schedule’s assessment isn’t based on the final 2022 records, which is often what you’ll see in this type of column. There have already been a slew of roster movements in the off-season, and injured players will be returning to action, so all of that is factored into each team’s 2023 outlook. My per-roster rating — not last year’s production — is what I use to create my easiest and toughest schedules.
The analysis below is your next step in preparing for the 2023 NFL Campaign and accompanying fantasy football season.
Season 1 of the Jordan Love era will feature the league’s easiest fantasy roster. How appropriate is this timing? Green Bay would benefit from six games against NFC North opponents, with neither the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, or Detroit Lions expected to have a top 20 defense. We’re also not too intimidated by four games against the NFC South, the toughest defense on the list (Pittsburgh Steelers) matched by encounters with the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Rams. This development enhances Love’s sleeper appeal and adds some value to Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Christian Watson and rookie Jayden Reed.
The New Orleans Saints (more on them in a bit), Bears, Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers round out the teams with the top five easy fantasy schedules.
Toughest Fiction Table: East Asia
The AFC East is loaded on the defensive side of the ball (all four defenses are good, if not great), which make up the New England Patriots (1st), New York Jets (2nd), Buffalo Bills (3rd) and Miami Dolphins. (v) with four of the five toughest fantasy schedules in 2023. In addition to those six games, these four teams will face off against the AFC West (Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Raiders) and NFC East (Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Leaders). It’s possible (most likely?) that we’ll see a bunch of low-scoring fixtures in the AFC East, so keep that in mind when considering drafting skilled players from these four teams.
The Giants have the toughest fantasy schedule in the NFC, though the Eagles (6th) aren’t far behind. This makes sense with both teams (plus the Cowboys and Commanders) willing to play four games against the aforementioned AFC East defensemen. The Eagles’ elite offense is still on the cards, but the schedule won’t be as smooth as the 2022 outing, so it’s likely to get a bit back on the ground.
Website promotions and discounts
While we don’t want to get caught up in the strength of the schedule based on the 2022 results, there is some correlation between the fictional points allowed by the site and the expected fictional strength of the schedule (based on the 2023 lists). The graph below shows the strength of each offense’s schedule based on what their 2023 opponents allowed last season. For example, based on their 2022 results, the Bills are set to face the second easiest schedule of tight ends but the 28th easiest (i.e. fifth hardest) ranking to appear. (Green = easy; red = difficult.)
Here are some promotions and discounts based on this chart only:
upgrades
QB: Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr
RB: Samaji Perrin, Javonte Williams, David Montgomery, Jahmir Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco
WR: Chris Olaf, Michael Thomas, Christian Watson, Jayden Reid, Mike Evans, Chris Goodwin
the: Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews
cutbacks
QB: Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Pickett
RB: D’Andre Swift, Rashad Penny, Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert, Kenneth Walker III, Zac Charbonnet
WR: Trillon Burks, Cooper Cobb, Van Jefferson, Jojo Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton
the: Darren Waller, Sam LaPorta, Cady Otton
All win totals were provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Easiest schedule overall: New Orleans Saints (OT: 9.5)
There will be better-than-expected opposing teams (and vice versa), but it’s hard not to look at Saints’ 2023 schedule and be amazed at how easy it turns out. For starters, the division isn’t at all daunting, with the Panthers (Bryce Young), Falcons (Desmond Reader) and post-Tom Brady Buccaneers (Kyle Trask/Baker Mayfield) all going through a midfield transition. It feels similar to what happened in the four matches against South Asia. The Jacksonville Jaguars own Trevor Lawrence, but the Indianapolis Colts (Anthony Richardson) and Houston Texans (CJ Stroud) will be starting rookies, and the Tennessee Titans aren’t as intimidating as usual and could turn from Ryan Tannehill to Will Levis at some point. The Saints would also face a wide open NFC North division without an elite team and no longer featuring Aaron Rodgers. As for unique games, the Saints pit them against the Giants, Patriots, and depleted Rams. For additional perspective on the Saints’ bright roster, a look at Caesars’ latest prospect shows that none of the top seven Super Bowl favorites are on their schedule this season.
Other NFC South teams — the Falcons (second easiest), Panthers (fourth) and Buccaneers (sixth) — join the Saints in having a lean schedule for 2023. The Colts are set up with the lightest roster in the AFC, though that may not be enough. To turn off a wild card in a loaded conference.
Toughest overall schedule: New England Patriots (WTO: 7.5)
In keeping with what was previously mentioned, the Patriots’ schedule ranks as the toughest in the league, while the rest of the AFC East lags behind. Focusing on the Patriots, they’re projecting the worst of the four teams in their division, the Josh Allen-led Bills remain a powerhouse, the Jets added Aaron Rodgers and the Dolphins filled a standout defense with Jalen Ramsey and healthy recovery Tua Tagovailoa. New England’s schedule also includes the NFC East and AFC West, which means showdowns with last season’s Super Bowl teams (the Eagles and Chiefs), as well as games against the Cowboys, Giants, Chargers, and Sean Payton-led Broncos. Games unique to the Patriots include the Steelers, Saints, and Colts.
The AFC West also faces a tough schedule, with the Raiders (third hardest), Chiefs (fifth), Chargers (seventh) and Broncos (ninth) all rounding out the top ten.
Projected AFC playoff seeds
All playoff odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook
1 – Heads (-400); 2 – Bills (-240); 3 – Cincinnati Bengals (-380); 4 – Jaguar (-180); 5 – dolphins (-115); 6 – Baltimore Ravens (-160); 7. Chargers (-105)
Like last season, the AFC is stacked, which means some good teams will miss the playoffs. The defending Super Bowl Chiefs remain loaded on offense and strong on defense. Josh Allen and Joe Borough pilot the Buffalo and Cincinnati Flyers with good defenses. Trevor Lawrence has put the Jaguars on the list of AFC South favourites. Miami arguably has the best defense in the league on paper, and their offense was outstanding with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa last season. The duo of Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh will keep Baltimore competitive, though I’m a little concerned about defense. The Chargers’ talent hasn’t lived up to its billing in recent years, but it should be good enough to battle the Cleveland Browns (+110) and Jets (-150), among others, for a wild card berth.
Predicted NFC Match Seeds
1 – Eagles (-380); 2. 49ers (-460); 3. Saints (-180); 4. Vikings (+120); 5 – cowboy (-210); 6 – Seattle Seahawks (-130); 7. Black (-170)
The Eagles have taken a hit on defense during the season, but they’re still a solid unit, and the offense that Jalen Hurts directs is elite. The 49ers’ QB situation is dicey, but Kyle Shanahan has a way of maximizing offense, and the defense is still one of the best in the league. The aforementioned lightweight schedule could help the Saints to 10 or 11 wins in the ugly-looking NFC South. The Lions are the sleeper fun team this season, but while I see them as strong wild card contenders, the Vikings roster still looks superior. Is Dallas the best team in the NFC? It might be, on paper at least, especially considering its defense is better than the new Philadelphia unit. Seattle was a surprising nine-win team in 2022, once again showing that it’s in the NFC playoff mix to be weak.
The 2024 NFL draft is projected to be a top five draft pick
1. Rams. 2. Leaders. 3. Arizona Cardinals. 4. Raiders. 5. Titans
The Rams went 5-12 last season, and the roster looks a lot worse on paper than it did in 2022. This is one of the worst defenses you’ll see on paper at this point in the offseason. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cobb aside, the Los Angeles offense isn’t much better. Reconstruction is underway. Washington (Sam Howell vs. Jacoby Brissett) and Arizona (Kyler Murray’s ripped ACL) both have big QB concerns. There are still plenty of holes in the Las Vegas defense, and changing a QB (Jimmy Garoppolo for Derek Carr) might not be an upgrade. The Giants have big holes on both sides of the ball and could turn to Will Levis at QB if they’re struggling.