Fantasy football draft strategy and roster building are always hot topics this time of year.
There are debates about how important it is to secure an elite running back early on, why you should aim for a starting quarterback, and even the best way to draft and air D/STs.
And thanks to the recent dominance of Travis Kelce, who has led tight ends in fantasy by scoring six of the past seven seasons (including besting second place by 101 points in 2022), there’s a lot of chatter about when Kelce should be selected in this year’s fantasy drafts… plus whether you should just play the waiting game if you decide not to spend the first player on the Chief.
This is where our ESPN Fantasy Team comes in. We asked our analysts to give their pros and cons to drafting Kelce in the first round, as well as spending an early pick on a tight end and which late trades they’ll be looking for in the drafts this year.
As you’ll see below, they’re not all on the same page, which is just one of the reasons why fantasy football is so much fun. There are many ways to build a successful team.
1. What are the pros and cons of drafting Travis Kelce in the first round?
Eric Karabell: Crafting a Kelce means you have a TE that is nearly as good as every WR and you don’t even have to think about crafting another TE again. Then again, there could be strong TE values in round 10, and since you have Kelce, there’s no need to investigate. It works both ways.
Eric Moody: Kelce provides fantasy managers with a huge weekly advantage in a position where there are few team-makers. The biggest con is his first-round pick, which means you’ll be missing out on one of the best fantasy running backs like Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor.
Liz Loza: Kelce’s biggest “professional” offering is safety in a highly volatile situation. … Looming most of the “cheeky” managers is the prospect of Father Time finally catching the 33-year-old and subsequently losing him to an elite roster WR like Tyreek Hill or a coveted RB like Bijan Robinson (both of whom have mid-draft positions similar to those of Kelce).
Matt Bowen: He’s the #1 option for Patrick Mahomes, the volume target in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. … In his past three seasons, Kelsey has seen no fewer than 130 goals per year, totaling 32 touchdowns over that stretch. Easy money here. However, if you Do Dive into Kelce, you’ll be missing a Tier 1 player in an excellent position — running back or wide receiver — when you can wait in the tight end position instead. You can still find value and production with a mid-level TE1 like George Kittle or Dallas Goedert.
2. What are the pros and cons of crafting a TE before you fill the flex?
Karabelle: I guess I don’t look at it that way. It’s all part of one larger puzzle. Draft on a redundant basis, at least the first 10 innings, and more often than not you’ll see that you still need a tight end after you fill the flex spot. This applies to 10 and 12 team formats.
Bowen: Drafting Tier 1 tight end early – Kelce, Mark Andrews and TJ Hockenson – could put you in a position to avoid the recent swings we’ve seen at center. I’ve been there too. He gets lonely on this assignment wire each week. But by doing so, you’re giving up an opportunity to get an RB or WR size in PPR formats to fit that flex point. In the 10-team leagues, let everyone else burn an early pick at a tight end, because that only frees up more valuable players to add to their game. for you a team. In the deep leagues, I’ll peek at tight ends a little earlier, but I’ll still peek at that flex point first. Yes, I could be jumping on the assignment wire by Week 3 to find a starting tight end, but I really don’t believe in being drafted to fill out a lineup. Target players, not positions. I’m fine with airing on the narrow end.
Risks: Selecting a TE in the first four or five rounds allows managers to secure the services of a first-class player (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson or Darren Waller), all of whom are expected to draw at least 100 goals. However, waiting for the position means investing in players who aren’t as prominently special (from a pass-attraction perspective) and, therefore, won’t get as many receiving opportunities (eg, Kittle is TE5 and expected to attract 85 appearances, which is a significant drop from Waller’s expected 100 targets). Using this strategy means potentially losing players who are providing a massive lead, including Jahmyr Gibbs and Chris Olave, both of whom come off the boards in the fourth round of the 12-team practice.
3. If you take a TE in the first five innings, does that prevent you from also taking a QB in the first five innings?
Moody: never. By taking advantage of the spot levels, you can still build a well-balanced team by taking this approach. When the dust settles in the first five rounds of the 12-team league, you can have Tony Pollard, Amon Ra St. Brown, Hawkinson, Miles Sanders and Joe Borough on your squad. This is a good start for any fantasy director.
Bowen: of course not. The top three QBs in points per game last season — Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Mahomes — were drafted over the first six innings. If you draft a tight end early on, don’t let that influence your philosophy of targeting the mobile QBs in your league. And they go faster than you think.
Risks: Justin Fields and Justin Herbert are popular fifth-round picks. According to ESPN ADP data, both QBs are drafted after the top four ranked fantasy tight ends (Kelsey, Andrews, Hawkinson, and Waller). Making a roster QB and TE in the first five innings is certainly possible, but it means gambling on the upside of another center (potentially an RB).
Karabelle: Of course, but no one should take a QB in the first five innings of a standard draft, and I tend to act similarly on a tight end. There just aren’t enough safe, reliable running backs and wide receivers to avoid those situations in the first five innings.
4. If you wait until the later rounds, what TEs are you targeting this year?
Bowen: In the three 10-team leagues I play in, where I sit and wait for the position, I actually look up to Pat Freymuth, Evan Ingram and Cole Kmet. The ability to tighten the seam is here, with passing schemes that meet their road attributes. At 12 my target list is a bit deeper and includes Tyler Higbee, Joan Johnson, Greg Dolcic and Chigozem Okonkwo. If they stop? to the weekly banners. It is simply not a priority site for me in fantasy.
Risks: Dalton Schultz is a high floor player who is recruiting innings double digits. A reliable tackler who has managed a fantasy career-high 12 in consecutive carries, Schultz is drawing 5-6 looks per game in Houston. It’s not a flashy pick, but it’s considered one of the more consistent producers in the position.
Moody: David Njoku, Johnson, Okonkwo, Higbee, Gerald Everett, Hayden Hearst, Dolcic… they all have the ability to exceed their wildest expectations.
Karabelle: Schultz, Njoku, and Higbee are in the 10-team leagues. Okonkwo and Dulcich in 12 players.