Now that the dust has settled on a 2023 season that started with so much promise, fans can start to ask how this Miami Dolphins squad can get over the proverbial hump in 2024. Most fans have ideas on how the Dolphins can be better next season and we aim to investigate some of the more popular ones. We started with finding ways to improve the tight end room and then looked at potential changes to their interior defensive line. Now lets break down how Miami can improve the depth of their receiver room.
Why This Position Matters
This should almost go without saying, but this offense is completely built around their top two receivers (Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle). Their game breaking speed and elite chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa routinely put defenses in impossible situations. We’ve seen what happens when defenses line up in single coverage without safety help and that forces these defenses to play Miami in a certain way. That in turn opens up the offense for other players and gives Miami a lot of light boxes to take advantage of in the running game.
Where Are They Now?
Since trading for Tyreek Hill in 2022, the Miami Dolphins have had arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL (definitely the fastest). They target both players at an exceptionally high rate and the tandem has racked up 5,879 yards and 32 receiving touchdowns. In that time frame the Miami Dolphins offense jumped from the 25th in the NFL in 2021, to 6th in 2022, and then 1st in 2023. Obviously they are doing a lot of things correctly and their two headed monster at wide receiver is a big reason why.
Percentage of plays where a Miami Dolphins receiver ran a route and was targeted:
Hill: 35%
Waddle: 26%
Berrios: 10%
Wilson: 14.8%
Claypool: 16.2%
Cracraft: 16.1%
Anderson: 9%
Ezukanma: 7.7%— George Forder (@GeorgeForder3) February 28, 2024
The flipside of Hill and Waddle shouldering much of the load, is that they’ve struggled to find a viable and consistent third receiving option in this offense. There’s only been one wide receiver (outside of Hill & Waddle) to break 300 yards since McDaniel came to Miami and that was Trent Sherfield (417) who left in free agency after the 2022 season. It’s also worth noting that Tyreek’s target rate of 35% is significantly higher than any other top receiver in the NFL. That figure tends to hover around 25-30% for a teams WR1. It’s not necessarily a problem (obviously) but it could help to spread some of those targets out.
Options This Offseason
The team doesn’t need to worry about finding a top target in this offense. Their focus needs to be on finding a player at a bargain that can contribute as a 3rd option at wide receiver (sometimes 2nd due to injury). We don’t really know if Mike McDaniel is going to prefer a larger bodied player that can win in contested situations, or a speed based player like they have now. For that reason, we’ll look at all kinds of potential options this off season.
Free Agency
Even with the extension of Mike Evans, this is shaping up to be a fantastic free agent class at wide receiver. Like we have mentioned before, they aren’t going to be looking for a top target in this offense. So, (to the chagrin of some of you) we can probably rule out some of these $15-20 million/year players to include: Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., and Calvin Ridley. With their limited cap space, that leaves the second and third tiers of free agents.
One of the more common types of players to fall into this 2nd/3rd tier are going to be guys coming off a disappointing or mediocre season that may be looking to come to Miami to reset their value on the open market. They’re still a few years away from 30 and will take a little less money on a short term deal to put up numbers in the NFL’s top passing offense and then look to cash in on their next (and potentially final) free agency. Some players that fall into this category are Darnell Mooney, Marquise Brown, Curtis Samuel, KJ Osbourn, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Kendrick Bourne, and DJ Chark. To me, the most intriguing players out of this group are Mooney, Samuel and Bourne. Mooney has been buried in one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL over the last few years and is just two years removed from a breakout campaign. Curtis Samuel has versatility as a runner & receiver that I KNOW Mike McDaniel would take advantage of. Finally, Kendrick Bourne is just a good football player. Not the most dynamic athlete by any means, but a solid route runner and blocker than can make things happen after the catch. He too has been buried in an inept offense for the last three years (New England), but previous to that spent time in San Francisco with Mike McDaniel.
The other potential free agents for this squad are the established veterans. These are guys that (for the most part) have established skill sets in the NFL. The risk here is that we don’t know how much father time has caught up with these players. This would include Odell Beckham, Michael Thomas, and Tyler Boyd. OBJ showed he can still play at a high level, it’s just if he can stay healthy or not. Boyd would be my favorite of this group, but he’s really a big slot specialist, when it might be more beneficial for them to get an outside receiver.
In today’s college football, a lot of teams are airing it out. The NCAA has excelled at producing top-tier NFL talent at the wide receiver position. Every year there are players that fall to the end of the first round or day two/three and proceed to dominate in the NFL. This past year was headlined by Puca Nacua (who fell to the 5th round, while setting the rookie receiving record), but also included players like Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, and Tank Dell. The point is, there are players later on in the draft that can step in and contribute immediately.
Everyone knows the players at the top of this draft class. Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze are going to be off the board when Miami gets to the podium. That is going to leave the second and third tier of players available to Miami, starting with pick 21. In the first round, they could conceivably select Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkey, Adonai Mitchell, or Troy Franklin (who all performed well at the combine). While it’s not a need, this regime has not shied away from adding to a strength if they think it’s the best player available.
Solid options from the second round on include Xavier Worthy (who set the combine 40 record), Xavier Legette, Roman Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, and Keon Coleman. Honestly, there are going to be so many college receivers that can add something to an NFL offense that they could have their eye on someone we haven’t even considered. If they’re able to trade back to get into the 3rd/4th round, it could be a great time to take one of these mid round receivers.
Final Thoughts
Wide receiver is one of the main strengths of this team. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are going to continue to headline this group for at least the next couple of seasons, but there are going to be situations where they need contributions from other players. You don’t need to add a big name free agent or spend your first round pick on the position, but you need to infuse some talent into the WR3 position. So, what would I do?
First, I would add one of the previously mentioned second tier of free agents. My favorite is Kendrick Bourne, for how he plays the position and his familiarity with the offense/McDaniel. On top of that I would probably bring back Braxton Berrios as well and then look at day two and three of the NFL draft. The Dolphins need cheap talent and I think the best way to get more of that is to trade back from one of their first two picks to acquire late day two/early day three selections. If Miami can add a viable third option at receiver, teams will have an extremely difficult time if they focus in on just Waddle and Hill and that could take this offense to a new level.