Michael Ponting’s three NHL games are over. Interestingly, these three games went well for the Leafs. They were undefeated at the time and now have the Tampa Bay Lightning on the brink of elimination. You might say, “If it ain’t broke, why fix it?” But this seems folly in two respects. The first is that for the first 40 minutes of the last game against Tampa, the Leafs seemed to break loose. You can also have a similar discussion about the third game. Toronto could use some help, and even if you are satisfied with Knies, Jarnkrok, fourth line, etc., there should be a place for Michael Bunting in the Leafs lineup. The other reason you’d go into it is because 20 motivating targets is worth it, probably more than the guys at the bottom of your list even if they play well, there are some positive aspects that Bunting does provide, and adding it to a second powerplay unit is definitely a benefit.
First who gets out?
Keefe notes that he has time to make up his mind with Bunting eligible to return to # Leaves Lined up
– Teri Kochan 🇺🇦 (@koshtorontosun) April 25, 2023
Explain how some things are. The Leafs travel today and we won’t have an immediate answer as a result, but also Matthew Knies won’t be one of the most serious Leafs since joining the lineup. That means looking elsewhere at the bottom of the Leafs lineup card and if Knies isn’t in the conversation the players Sam Lafferty, Zach Aston-Reese, Noel Acciari and David Kampf will be.
Given that Kampf was used as center and that Acciari was producing with O’Reilly, it is easy to exclude them from the list as well as Knies. It’s really a matter of comparing Zach Aston-Reese to Sam Lafferty and ZAR seems to have the edge. Aston Reese have a goal, throw more strikes, both Lafferty and Aston Reese have struggled enough in their possession metrics and it’s hard to say Laverty comes closer in this situation due to a better 1.4% xG%. The only difference is that Lafferty has a right-handed shot and is deployed more frequently on the right side than Aston Race. This may be enough to give him the advantage in this situation as Bunting going in while Knies stayed in means the left side of the ice is getting more and more crowded.
Where in the lineup is the flagpole hole?
The initial Game One lineup had Bunting alongside Auston Matthews which wasn’t much of a surprise given that a lot of Michael Bunting’s offensive production depends on being in that spot. It seems unlikely that the venue will ever be returned to Bunting as Calle Jarnkrok has thrived at this venue since returning there in Bunting’s absence.
You can look at Bunting with Tavares, but outside of solid play the two strikers haven’t worked well together, and while an extra-time goal shouldn’t necessarily guarantee Alex Kerfoot will keep his place in the top six, it’s hard to say it should. Taken from him at this point either though, Matthew Kniss might be the best case for it.
Given that Knies has been on the O’Reilly streak regularly but has been venturing into the top six in the past two games, I’m betting Bunting could be the perennial match on the O’Reilly streak right now and Knies could see himself put on the line Fourth with regular circumstantial movement to the top nine as Sheldon Keefe sees fit. And this may again be supported by the fact that it is likely to be an Aston Reese exit, not a Sam Lafferty exit, as Kniss is unlikely to move to the right wing.
Bunting with O’Reilly and Acciari seems like a pretty bad line for Tampa who lined up against them and seems to have the ability to create some offense as well. Knies also seems likely to be a better fit for the Kampf line as Knies has at least at the NCAA level proven to be reliable off the puck as well, and so far has exceeded those expectations that the NHL level as well. If Keefe wants Kampf for defensive games, there’s always the option of flipping Kerfoot for Knies too although that would make for a very selective deployment for Tavares’ line.
With three games left to skip Tampa, getting the Bunting back into the mix is important, even if not to eliminate the Lightning but to look forward to a potential second-round game against Boston. The Leafs are going to want Bunting to be in on it and they’re going to want him to play his ass and know he’s likely to play him.
data source The natural stats trick.