MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the top UFC bouts. Today, we’re looking at the main card of UFC Fight Night 223.
UFC Fight Night 223 takes place this Saturday at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card is streaming on ESPN+.
Results of the last event: 2-2-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 35-29-3
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognations, where I will be providing a brief breakdown of the fight day for the UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come across as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to provide quick picks and analysis in an easy-to-digest format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like a more detailed analysis from me, feel free to check out my weekly show, Neck protection podcast.
So, without further ado…
Josh Quinlan (-175) vs. Trey Waters (+140)
The main card kicks off in Las Vegas with an impromptu welterweight pairing of Josh Quinlan and Trey Waters.
Although I was looking forward to seeing Quinlan tested by Ange Loosa, Waters presents a unique issue with his height and length. However, despite Waters’ dangerous knees and counters, I think his falling off the blow – along with the speed difference – potentially set him up early for a nasty knockout loss.
The pick is Quinlan to take out another short notice opponent in the first round.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-185) vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (+150)
Death, tax, and the UFC matchmakers continue to bury fun flyweight fights to the fore in favor of force-feeding us heavyweight matches that no one asks for on the main card.
This week, the powers that be will see a fight between Marcos Rogério de Lima and Waldo Cortes Acosta, between two promising prospects, are decided.
Despite de Lima being a fighter I used to lose automatically due to submission, the Brazilian captain has found new life in the heavyweight division – a division sorely lacking in a ground fighting presence.
For that reason, I will reluctantly side with De Lima for his more fluid game and experimentation on the Contender Series product by firing Cortes-Acosta with a lackluster decision.
Julián Erosa (-150) vs. Julián Erosa (-150) Fernando Padilla (+125)
Although Juilan Erosa deserves a much better name at this point in his career, I’m glad the UFC at least gave him a slot on the main card and a fun dance partner in Fernando Padilla.
Given that visa issues have kept Padilla for two years, it’s hard to predict what the 26-year-old will look like at this point in his career.
Padilla, similar to Erosa, is a tall, long-legged fighter who almost prefers fighting dirty on the inside. The Mexican is also a brown belt in the Planet X Jiu-Jitsu system, but I’m not sure we’ll see a lot of drawn-out terrestrial exchanges in that system.
I’ll partner with Experience Erosa (who looks eerily like Cameron from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off”) to see him through the stretch with a quick win on the scorecards.
Cody Brundage (+185) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (-225)
Despite the lack of names and numbers left for Saturday, the UFC matchmakers still saw fit to make this six-match main card by forcing another middleweight match into the mix.
Although the smaller octagon should favor Vieira’s submission sensibilities, I find myself partial to the underdog in this spot.
Brundage is not only a strong wrestler who trains at height, but the American is also an opportunistic wrestler who is still young and improving.
I would trip Brundage to survive Vieira’s early submission storm in order to score a knockout at the end of the second round.
Caio Buralho (-375) vs. (+290) Michal Oleksuk
The co-main event on ESPN+ features a middleweight bout between Caio Borralho and Michal Olekseijczuk.
While not disagreeing with who is the favourite, I think Olekseijczuk is more lively than the betting lines would suggest.
Borralho may get the promotional push given his ties to Dana White’s pet project, but Olekseijczuk – for all his faults – has proven successful in multiple weight classes at this level.
However, I still struggled against a superior submission fighter in the smaller cage.
The option is for Borralho to survive his early hitting scares in order to secure a rear naked choke in the second round.
Song Yadong (+105) vs. Ricky Simon (-125)
The main event in Las Vegas features the important bantamweight fight between Song Yadong and Ricky Simon.
As mentioned in the in-depth breakdown, this is a close battle no matter how you cut it.
Yadong could easily replicate Urijah Faber’s win over Simon (Yadong’s win had a hand in) by countering Simon’s commitments up front with his crosses and hooks. However, it is hard to ignore the fact that the smaller octagon provides an inherent stylistic advantage for superior submission fighters and grapplers.
Add to that the fact that Yadong has shown a tendency to fade in past fights, and I’ll stand by Simon to survive the Chinese fighter’s strength early in order to secure a head-and-arm choke in the third round.
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