Santa Clara, Calif. — For most quarterbacks picked in the top three in the NFL Draft, the immediate expectation is for them to take dark franchises and lift them to the highest heights in the league.
More often than not, it doesn’t work. That’s why, while the San Francisco 49ers used their third overall in 2021 over Trey Lance’s quarterback, the massive 44 quarterbacks have been selected in the top three in 50 previous NFL drafts and only two starters – Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning Win the Super Bowl with the team that originally drafted it.
The situation in San Francisco is unique. When head coach Kyle Shanahan finally officially announced that the Niners belonged with the Lance on opening day of training camp, he wasn’t asking the sophomore caller to be the savior of the franchise.
As he explained why the 49ers turned a team that was minutes away from their second Super Bowl appearance in three years into an unproven 22-year-old, Shanahan pointed out multiple things. Faith in Lance sure, but nothing stands out more than this: The Niners roster is talented enough that Lance doesn’t have to play the hero.
Shanahan said, “I feel as good about our roster as I am about him. I think our team is in a great place to turn him into a quarterback who hasn’t played before.”
The 49ers have a roster unlike most teams that draft quarterbacks in the top three. Just a year after their Super Bowl LIV appearance, the Niners traded from No. 12 to No. 3 to acquire Lance, a move they were only in a position to make due to an injury-decimated 2020 season.
Prior to the Niners drafting Lance, no quarterback higher than No. 25 had been selected by a team that was a full season removed from the Super Bowl. So while Lance will face a lot of pressure in his first full season as a starter in San Francisco, it’s going to be more of the “don’t screw it up” kind than the “please save us” kind.
“I think he’s probably in the best position you can be in as a first-year quarterback with a defense like ours, a good O-line and a bunch of weapons,” said defensive end Nick Bosa. “He’s got all the help he needs… I think if he doesn’t make big mistakes we’ll be in good shape.”
The question then becomes what exactly do they need from Lance to get to the top of the mountain? While San Francisco’s offense under Shanahan will never abandon its core concepts — wide area mixed with a rushing rush scheme, plenty of action and refinement in the passing game — it will likely work differently with Lance than it did with Jimmy Garoppolo.
With Garoppolo at the controls, the Niners executed an accurate, heavy attack that leaned yards after hunting to deal damage in the air. Over the past three seasons, Garoppolo has completed 68.5% of his passes (fourth in the NFL) and the Niners were fifth in time of possession.
What Garoppolo didn’t bring was the ability to continually throw the ball or play with his legs. At the same time, the Niners were last in the NFL in pass attempts for more than 20 air yards (118), 29th in completions in such throws (56) and 339 yards by quarterbacks also 29th.
In Lance, the Niners are pinning a quarterback who came into the league with just 318 pass attempts at North Dakota State and some accuracy questions. Last season, Lance’s 57.7% completion percentage was more than 10 points less than Garoppolo.
The Niners hope that Lance’s willingness to take shots and make things happen when plays break down will make up for any losses in accuracy. Even in a small sample of the 71 attempts from last season, Lance has proven he’s not afraid to let it fly, with 13 attempts of more than 20 air yards (18.3%). Garoppolo caught 441 passes last season, with 32 passing more than 20 yards in the air (7.2%).
Lance’s 10.2 air yards per attempt was the highest in the NFL among quarterbacks who attempted at least 50 passes. Of course, Lance also brings a ground element — he had 1,100 rushing yards for the Bison in 2019 — which will allow Shanahan to get creative with the running game and create more opportunities outside of the throwing schedule.
“The new wrinkles aren’t the problem with him,” Shanahan said. Trey can do anything, but what would be his best, this [something] I don’t have an answer yet. And I’ll have a much better idea at the end of camp, but I still don’t have the answer. That will continue throughout the year and that’s always evolving.”
In Lance’s favor, he will start the season with a handful of elite players on the squad. Left tackle Trent Williams will protect his blind side, and Lance has first ex-pros like guard Debo Samuel and tight end George Kittle, not to mention rookie youngster Brandon Ayuk and running back Elijah Mitchell.
On defense, the Niners returned eight starters, including Pro Bowlers Bosa and Fred Warner, and spent big money signing cornerback Charvarius Ward. So stifling was that unit in the camp’s opening days that some wondered if crime would catch up with it. With the pre-season winding down, Lance and Co. began. They had some success and stood firm in the belief that playing this defense every day would only make them better.
When you say things [are] “It’s slowing down, it’s getting better,” Lance said. “Every rep I do, I think the game slows down, and that’s kind of how I work every day, every day every time, every rep.” [I’m] I try to learn from him as much as I can.”
There are few quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl in their second season in the NFL. That list includes Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, and Russell Wilson. Of this group were Brady and Warner, like Lance, in their first seasons as starters.
They were also surrounded by elite talent, which meant they didn’t have to carry the freight. The Niners know Lance will have his ups and downs. But they hope to get better every week and at least avoid playing in crucial moments that lead to losses.
“We need to do everything we can to make it as easy as possible for Trey,” Kettle said. “We need to play high enough where if Trey has a game where he throws a bunch of picks, that’s what he is and we’ll play good enough where we can win those games…he plays, the better and it will be up to us to help him the best we can.” we can “.