The Hershey Bears put an end to a very good season with a 6-4 win over the Lehigh Valley Phantoms in the season finale on April 15th. 2022-23 season.
Nelson met with the media in the aftermath of the Bears’ season finale, sharing a bit of the Bears’ overall systemic philosophy, and offering insight into how the team measures the team’s performance (or lack thereof).
“At any time you can be pushy, which our team hasn’t been all year. When you look at the analytics and they say our projected targets for them, they’re much higher than our actual targets, so I was glad we did some plays for the guys.”
Todd Nelson got real with analytics. xGF>GF # the capper #HBH pic.twitter.com/Kg37A0iFxo
– Capitals Horizons (@jon_m_sorensen) April 16, 2023
That’s what draws attention to any analytics nerd, especially when it stems from a league that doesn’t share next-generation stats with the public. But back to the bears.
For the rest of the world, simply put, Nelson was saying that the Bears have generated far more scoring opportunities than they have converted over the course of the season, which can be considered a positive or negative, depending on your point of view. While the Bears’ “finish” stats aren’t perfect (converting on chances), goals projected to be greater than actual goals is a good sign in the overall sense of the picture, as long as the Bears win games.
Nelson continued the team’s overall philosophy, stating that maintaining control of the puck was the number one job.
“As a coaching staff we encourage our guys to hold on to the balls. Basically the philosophy is if we have the puck they can’t score. We can’t imagine it too much but if we hold on to the balls it makes it very difficult for them. If we stretch time zone, they’ll get upset and that’s when the goals happen.”
Winning the battle for possession is a common common goal for any hockey team, but playing away is an interesting concept. It could also be said that the philosophy differed from the Capitals’ overall methodical approach in Washington last season.
Nelson said the Bears closely track total possession time in games, as most teams do these days. However, he also added that the Bears’ possession metrics are good enough to compare to the top teams in the NHL.
“I think for the season we have an average of six to seven minutes of possession time, which is excellent. It would put us in the top five in the NHL.”
The insight and surprising discussion of advanced metrics at Nelson’s end is much appreciated in the analytics community. Insight Timing is very interesting, if not thought-provoking.
The team has been out of action since April 15, after earning a bye in the first round. Nelson and the Bears roughly simulated their first-round series, giving the team two days off at the end of the regular season, then getting back to work for Thursday high-intensity scrimmages and drills.
Playoff Series Preview: Hershey Bears Vs. Charlotte Checkers
The Bears left for North Carolina on Wednesday before their semifinal game with the Charlotte Checkers, which kicks off Friday night at Bojangles Coliseum in Queen City.
Written by John Sorensen