It was a nice little weekend for Leafs fans. One round monkey from the back of the foliage. The Panthers upset the Bruins and gave the Leafs a way forward that didn’t involve going through the President’s Trophy winners. Now is the time to prepare for round two and one of the best ways to do that is to look back at what went right and what went wrong in round one.
Ilya Samsonov can steal toys
Considering the playoffs started with Samsonov posting a sub . 800 outing and getting knocked out in the third inning, everything that came after that was very positive. There were Samsonov’s mortal moments throughout the series, but ultimately Samsonov stood on his head and gave the Cards a .969 game six and gave them four games above .900. Game Six was the most exceptional game, and that’s really what it misses the most, as Campbell, Andersen, and Reimer were all serviceable but then went sideways when it mattered the most. Samsonov has withstood the pressure and is likely to continue into the second round based on his dominance over the Panthers in the regular season.
Hilariously though:
The differences were not in favor of Toronto
In 5v5, the Leafs were behind Lightning in Corsi, with expected goals, and interestingly enough in goals as well. The same is true in all situations except on goals where the Leafs outperformed the Lightning as one often does when winning the series.
However, while finding a way to win while excelling is encouraging, it’s not the most sustainable path to the Stanley Cup, and given that the Leafs lead play and outpace their rivals, pulling away wasn’t ideal. .
The Panthers also found themselves in a similar boat, as in all situations the Bruins had the upper hand, but something the Leafs will need to watch is that the Panthers have outscored the Bruins at 5v5.
Big dogs appeared
Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Riley, and O’Reilly were all over a point per game going into the first round of the playoffs. Matthews scored 5 goals, tied Marner for the playoff lead in assists, and only one point behind Rob Hintz in the points lead.
No longer having to suffer through the many anecdotes surrounding Matthews and Marner in the playoffs, Tavares’ washed-up narrative, Nylander not caring about the narrative, or the heavy criticism of Riley that came during the regular season is great. If the Leafs are going to reach their potential, these players will have to stay on top of their game.
Hall can continue to be a problem
In numbers, Timothy Liljegren again looks like the better option to be in the Leafs lineup against the Panthers than Justin Holl. The numbers backed Liljegren on Holl against the Lightning as well, but Sheldon Keefe didn’t see it that way and a historically poor performance from Hall followed.
Hall isn’t as bad as he led us to believe in the first round, but Timothy Lillegren wasn’t as bad as the last 20 games of the Leafs season would have us believe either. With Hall fighting it out and Liljegren being quite a good option and also the future of the Leafs’ defense, sticking with the young Swede seems the most logical. It might also make sense to go with Gustafsson over Giordano or stick to the 7D format.
The Rielly/Schenn pairing has turned many people off
I’m not sure many people expected Riley to be one of the better goal-defenders in the playoffs, and I think fewer people expected Luke Chien to be likable statistically. They did both while Riley also put in a solid performance as quarterback, and Luke Schenn turned things into a boom. After a disappointing experience together in the regular season, we were pleasantly reminded of how situations can change in the playoffs and this pairing was a good fit to take on the Lightning.
It seems likely that this pairing would work well against Florida as well given that Rielly should be able to exploit a team that has a high GAA and Schenn is the type of player who can make Matthew Tkachuk have a bad time.
Mix it up a bit
It’s been a pretty common experience over the past few playoffs that by the time you get to the third game or so, the Leafs’ opponents have position players ready for the Leafs’ rush to arrive and quickly break up the offense. It was also a staple that at a certain point in the series the opponent would just block the entire hole area and be set up for shots from the Leafs’ favored positions. Recording has been suspended for elimination matches and this is not the first time this has happened.
What’s encouraging is that the Leafs stopped trying to use the high opening and point shots against the Lightning when they were taking the Leafs’ best chances, and Toronto has adapted in Game Six low side attacks from the net that created some havoc in front of the net and opened up space for the Leafs’ stars. It would be nice to see more of this and maybe include some different zone entry strategies as well.
Finally, since it’s no fun to end this on a negative note, honorable mention Matthew Kniss is required. Not only was he a player who went all out during the playoffs, but he also forced Michael Ponting to up his game and fight to keep his place in the lineup as well. Fun fact is that Matthew Kniss currently leads all NHL rookies in the playoffs. Perhaps the hype was justified after all.