The Miami Dolphins have put themselves in a position to put together an elite roster and they have done so with high draft picks in high value (premium) locations. Place value is one of my favorite topics to discuss within the game of soccer. The idea is that certain centers have a greater impact on the outcome of the game…which is why those centers get paid more on average.
When you’re competing in a sport (like the NFL) that uses a salary cap, spending your money wisely is key to continued success. One of the best ways to save cap space is to draft these high-value positions, especially early in the draft when you’re most likely to “squeeze” your pick. This is something Chris Greer has shown since joining the Dolphins organization.
What are “high value” positions?
The first and highest value has one very clear one: quarterback. They are the face of most franchises and obviously the face of the NFL. They get the biggest contracts and it is widely recognized that they have the most influence on the outcome of games. Having a good quarterback in a rookie deal gives your franchise a huge boost.
What are some other high value positions? This can vary from person to person, but the offensive tackle, edge defender, cornerback (depending on your defense), and wide receiver all tend to have massive effects on the game. A great way to think about how valuable production is at a particular location is to ask, “How much would it cost me on the open market to replace this?”
Jarir’s most valuable choices
Toa Tagovailoa
You should have seen this coming. Getting a good midfielder on a rookie deal puts you in such a privileged position. I realize that a lot of fans aren’t sold on Tagovailoa, but it seems undeniable that the Dolphins have one of the best twelve quarterbacks in the NFL (when they’re on the field).
In 2022 he was fourth in PFF passing score, second in EPA/play, third in QBR, led the NFL in goal depth average, and led the NFL in QB rating. He’s had a few rock performances, but overall he’s proven to the world that he belongs in the conversation with other top passers-by. If I exchange that on the open market, I need to look at what kind of contract he’d be asking for and take the average annual salary from it.
2023 CAP HEAT: $9,633,094
APY (average per year) for replacement: 38 million dollars
savings: $28,366,906
Tua Tagovailoa’s PFF hit score (68.9) and QB rating (103.4) under pressure both lead the NFL.
He dropped some absolute dimes under pressure against Texas. The Dolphins will need more of this with Terron Armstead out. #finsup pic.twitter.com/9mNiWAX2xu
– George Forder (@GeorgeForder3) November 29, 2022
Gillan Phillips
This should have been another fairly obvious one, but Jellan Phillips doesn’t always get the love he deserves. If there were no concussion concerns in college, there is no chance that Phillips would be available as an 18th pick in 2021. Fortunately for the Dolphins, he was.
Phillips has already recorded 15.5 sacks in his two NFL seasons and finished with the sixth (70) pressure of any defender in 2022 (per PFF). The scary thing is that Phillips is still a young, up-and-coming player. As it stands now, he’s just a notch below the really elite passers (Miles Garrett, TJ Watt, Micah Parsons, etc…), but there’s reason to believe he’ll join that class of players soon.
2023 CAP HEAT: $3,823,146
APY to replace: $22 million
savings: $18,176,854
Gillan Phillips came out big in the second half. He continued to put together solid performances and quickly became one of the best young pass attackers in the NFL. #finsup pic.twitter.com/503aT7WVR8
– George Forder (@GeorgeForder3) October 25, 2022
Jaylen Waddell
There are probably about 15-20 NFL teams where Jaylen Waddle will no doubt be a WR1. Everyone talks about Waddle’s speed, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s just a deep threat. Jaylen Waddle runs specific ways, can fight for football when needed, and I don’t know if there’s anyone else in the NFL who blows off breaks quite like he does.
In today’s NFL, you have to be a deep three in receiver, at least. If Jaylen Waddle hits the open market tomorrow, the line of interested teams will be around the block. The $20,000 APY I put into this machine is probably conservative – I could see Waddle really breaking the bank on the open market.
2023 CAP HEAT: $7,387,090
APY to replace: $20,000,000
savings: $12,612,910
Kind of like before, the bills look like they’re going up two before the snap, but Poyer spins down and Tua IDs right away. This time it’s a better throw and Waddle is out of the races. pic.twitter.com/crR3DRVUUH
– George Forder (@GeorgeForder3) December 21, 2022
How did the dolphins spend $59,156,670?
Well, the most obvious one is Tyreek Hill. Its annual average is $30 million. Another good one here is Terron Armstead, who brings in an average of $15 million annually. Another big plus made possible by these savings is Jaylen Ramsey. His average of $18 million puts this just above the savings threshold, but without a small core in junior deals, there’s a good chance he won’t make any of these moves.
There’s a reason this rebuilding formula is so popular around the NFL. When implemented correctly, it works. The important thing here is that you need to be hitting those draft picks, at least a decent part of them. Over two years (2020-2021), the Dolphins have struck out three of their five first-round picks. Noah Igbinoghene and Austin Jackson are notably absent from this list because they don’t save Miami anything at their current level of play.
This is why teams want to collect a lot of early picks. No matter how good your general manager is, some of these choices won’t work. It’s like playing the lottery, the more tickets you buy the better your chances of winning. As for Chris Greer, he’s hit it big on three of those tickets and he’s funding what could be a championship in 2023.