eight days.
That’s all it took to wipe out all the goodwill that came from Tree Leaves passing the turn for the first time in nearly two decades. Once Sam Reinhart scored the winning goal in overtime to put the Panthers ahead 3-0 going into the second round, it was a question of when, not if, you’d see their playoff aspirations disappointed. And for the fifth time since this era began, Toronto have been sent firmly in front of their home fans.
While the dust settles on another season of spring shortcomings, the foliage has settled and hasn’t at the same time They deserve to get the score they got in the second round.
Toronto got the bulk of the scoring opportunities and offensive zone time, which should have resulted in at least one instance of the game where they scored more than two goals. That said, they made it very easy for the Panthers to execute their game plan and Sergey Bobrovsky made more saves than both Ilya Samsonov and Josef Wall managed. It certainly didn’t help that Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares combined for a goal on 67 shots in this series while only a few could have made the difference. Now why does that last sentence sound familiar?
Just as the past seven years of the Leafs’ hockey era began, the same problems that kept them from running at home reared their ugly head in the second round. Their goaltender was the second-best in the series, they fell apart in front of a gambling-heavy team, their seemingly lethal offense dried up at the worst of times, and they lost the battle of the special teams.
What makes this loss a little more so is that the previous round saw the Leafs win in all of these areas despite being outplayed by the Lightning. He showed that this collegiate unit is capable of winning a tour and going deeper in the spring, but something was missing that kept them from achieving hockey’s immortality. So while players may want to stay the course, changes come one way or another.
#Forever_papers Scored exactly 2 goals in 6 consecutive matches. 11 different players scored 12 goals in that period.
This is their first consecutive streak of 6 consecutive games scoring 2 goals or fewer since 2011-12.
– Sportsnet Statistics (SNstats) May 12, 2023
It’s easy to point the finger at who the Leafs are to blame for again in the playoffs, but it’s a complex answer with many layers.
It starts with a lack of depth quality on the left wing that was dismantled once Matthew Kniss went down with a concussion in Game Two. As crazy as that sounds, he quickly became and was an integral part of the Leafs’ success. The difference between night and day in the way they play after being marginalized. This is not to say that Michael Bunting and Callie Jarncrook were passive as they both had their chances when scored alongside the top four, but Knies’ descent meant having to rely on the likes of Alex Kerfoot to help bridge the offensive gap and men like him. It is simply not enough to get the job done consistently.
Toronto’s 5v5 play is compounded by Sheldon Cave’s questionable tactics and use of players not up to par to win the playoffs. Justin Hall continued to get tough minutes even though he was outsmarted whenever he was on the ice the bigger the offender, but holding on to the sloppy Mark Giordano and taking so long to split the Jake McCabe-TJ Brodie pairing in the second round was another huge mistake on defense. While Kniss’ injury certainly didn’t help matters, Keefe’s insistence on keeping the Bunting-Matthews-Marner top line together despite going without goals until they lost 3-0 in the series would prove costly as well.
And the Leafs’ 1-5 record at Scotiabank Arena in the 2023 playoffs is another reason for their second-round exit. In all five losses, the Toronto FC coach continued to lose the practice battle to both John Cooper and Paul Morris despite benefiting from a recent change. Keefe being consistently outclassed by an opposing coach in the playoffs is nothing new, but combining that with only two wins in the playoffs is not a recipe for success and it’s not surprising that they are now playing golf rather than preparing for Game 6 tonight.
In terms of the special team battle, Toronto’s tendency to search for the perfect shot rather than put the puck on the net whenever possible also contributed to their downfall. This shortcoming is even more pressing when you consider that the Leafs modified their game plan midway through the Lightning Series to look for long-range shots that could deflect offscreen or generate a bounce which worked wonders in Andrei Vasilevsky’s solution. The players decided to ditch their winning formula and fall back into their old habits of short passes and long runs with less shooting output, and they came back to finish them off. By the time they adjusted their strategy in Game 4 to implement extended passes to keep the Panthers out, it was too late.
You can make all the excuses you want for the Leafs’ failure to make it to the third round for the first time since 2002, but the truth is that this was a missed opportunity for this core after six straight first-round exits to their emphatic end. From Tavares stick. even if Matthews’ wrist was not sore, Knies didn’t get a concussion, Samsonov stayed healthy, or the Leafs got more power plays, it wouldn’t erase the fact that their actions on the ice left them trailing 3-0 and had to rely on a miracle so rarely. Fruit to keep their season alive. However, all anyone will remember from the series are all the missed calls, most notably the controversial decision not to allow Morgan Riley’s goal. Despite clear evidence that the disc was in the network.
So, after seven years of playoff shortcomings, the Leafs are entering a pivotal summer with an uncertain future.
Toronto Maple #Forever_papers Entering the off-season with:
$8.3 million in cap space with a roster of 17
3x 2023 draft picks (1st [BOS]v, vi)RFAs:
Samsonov
dead
HolmbergUFAs:
carefoot
O’Reilly
kampf
Akyari
lesson
Simmonds
Aston Race
Hall
Shane
Gustafsonhttps://t.co/60tsQFv5kD– CapFriendly (CapFriendly) May 13, 2023
Of all the Leafs free agents pending mentioned above, I can see them holding the majority of them. Noel Acciari has been a revelation for the last six and his style of play will make him an easy bet to get an extension. Same goes for Luke Schenn, who has been exceptional in the postseason in the primarily slot alongside Rielly. Ryan O’Reilly’s playoff experience has proven vital in helping the Leafs make it past the first round, and he’ll likely accept a hometown opponent to stay in Toronto. David Kampf and Zach-Aston Reese were a great fit in the fourth row while Pontus Holmberg would have no problem getting a qualifying bid.
The wild card pick is Samsonov because while it’s possible he could also get a qualifying offer, it all depends on whether the Leafs think Woll is ready for a full-time role and whether they can let go of Matt Murray’s contract. Samsonov will almost certainly get a pay raise for his strong play in the regular season and playoffs, but it’s up in the air if he stays beyond this year. If I were a betting man I’d be tempted to have him stay and Murray be traded, making room for Woll to join the team on a permanent basis.
Hall and Kerfoot’s future in Toronto is still unknown because it all depends on what the front office looks like once free agency begins. While Ponting had reached the Calder Cup final a year earlier and is a perennial 50-point producer, his meat with the officials and subsequent three-game ban hurt his chances of an extension with the Leafs. Wayne Simmonds may have played his last game in the NHL and won’t be back, while Victor Mitty and Eric Gustafsson weren’t often factors.
Deciding which of the current crop of free agents to stay or go is one thing, and deciding whether to move on from one of the Big Four pieces or keep the band together indefinitely is a whole other story.
Heading into next season, Matthews and Nylander have one year remaining on their deals while Marner and Tavares are on the books for another two years. The 2023 playoffs were a stark reminder that the Leafs will go as far as their top guns can go, demonstrating what they can do when they’re in their game and just how much the team fails when they’re not. Nylander has gotten a bigger payday with his continued growth throughout his deal, Tavares will see more of a dip as the years go by, and presumably Matthews and Marner can get what they want in their next contract.
Kyle Dubas didn’t have the foresight to predict a global pandemic halting the salary cap that limited what the Leafs could do after the Big Four shut down in 2019, but he or whoever is in charge will face the difficult task of deciding whether to stick to it. The primary people who fail to get it done or make a big change and try something new. If it were up to me, I would stick with the other three and move on from Tavares, but his contract with a no-movement clause makes that almost impossible.
Speaking of Dubas, his contract is set to expire in July and he would easily be GM’s biggest free agent if the Leafs didn’t keep him on board. His five-year tenure up to this point has no doubt been far from perfect, but he has improved with time and last season saw him put the team in the best position they could continue to run by coming into the deadline. It’s not entirely his fault that it didn’t happen because the pieces he brought were major contributors to their winning streak over Tampa Bay. Despite one year remaining on his contract, deciding what to do with Keefe will also be a vital one for the team this summer. He was one of the best players in franchise history in terms of regular season success, but his tactics and adjustments were mediocre in the playoffs as mentioned earlier and just one win over four years just isn’t good enough.
No matter which direction the Leafs decide to go, changes will come for them because the team hasn’t been able to make it into the playoffs for the seventh straight season.
There’s no denying that they took a huge step forward by defeating their demons in the first round and it was an amazing moment worth celebrating. However, all the positive vibes were dashed in just over a week by falling behind 3-0 against a team that finished 19 points behind in the regular season and was one point shy of missing out on the playoffs altogether. Now the Leafs will have to sit through this loss for the next five months and think about why this core failed again.
A combination of a lack of depth, a dropped goaltender, losing a special teams battle, and failure to resolve an opponent’s struggle contributed to the Leafs’ downfall against the Panthers. They now face an uncertain future with many free agents hanging on the ice and in the press box, as well as a huge decision to make what to do with their most important pieces.
Progress in the qualifiers will not be enough to prevent the inevitable changes that will be made. While this team showed flashes of what they could do at their best, once again it wasn’t enough to achieve greatness on the biggest stage.