Philadelphia – One working theory that led to the 2023 NFL Draft is that the Philadelphia Eagles should step in on offense by drafting Texas star running back Pejan Robinson in the first round.
The logic goes like this: There is no way the defense is going to be good after losing a pair of starting safety and linebacker in free agency, along with standout defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. Thus, Philly’s best chance of returning to the Super Bowl is with an offensive juggernaut that can carry the day.
Most of the pieces are in place. The Eagles have quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert and arguably the best offensive line in football. Imagine bringing Robinson – one of the best prospects in recent memory – into that lineup? It will be hard to find good answers on how to try to stop them.
The Eagles occupy the thirty-tenth place in the overall standings. Will Robinson be in play? Let’s break it down:
Robinson case
Look no further than Super Bowl LVII for why teams should prioritize the offensive side of the ball. Philadelphia led the league in pass defense (179.8 yards per game) and finished the regular season with the third-most sacks of all time (70), but couldn’t slow Patrick Mahomes and company when it mattered in the 38-35 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. .
“Offenses dominate in this league, and that’s why we’ve always focused more of our resource allocation on making sure we have a standout offense, because it’s so hard to stop — I’m going to add Jalen to this list — Jalen Hurts,” Eagles CEO Jeffrey Lowry said in league meetings late in the day. March: “Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allens, Joe Burroughs, Little Guns and Vintage, Aaron Rodgers and all that group.”
The Eagles were strong on offense last season. Led by MVP candidate Hurts, they finished third in points per game (28.1) and total yards (389.1 avg.), behind the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
Robinson would add another dimension to an already powerful attack. Displaying a rare combination of speed, agility, strength, and patience, he led the Big 12 in rushing yards (1,580) and rushing touchdowns (18) while contributing as a receiver with 19 catches for 314 yards (16.5 avg.) last season on the way to winning the Doak Walker Award as best fullback. for the nation.
He is ranked No. 9 on the Big Mel Keeper Billboard and is No. 4 on the Billboard Hot 100 Todd McShay’s list of the 32 best prospects.
“Everyone says Pejan Robinson is not only the best in the class, he’s one of the top five players in the class,” former Eagles scout and current analyst Daniel Jeremiah told NFL Network. “He’s from the elite.”
Robinson would immediately jump into a starting role in Philadelphia, replacing the departing Miles Sanders, who signed a four-year, $25.4 million deal with the Carolina Panthers in March after setting personal highs in rushing yards (1,269) and touchdowns (11) in 2022. As strong as the O-line and Hurts’ ability to keep defenses honest as a running threat in his own right, it’s easy to imagine Robinson ripping it off as a rookie and helping put the Eagles back at the top of the NFC. It should also be noted that Hurts and Robinson are represented by the same agent: Nicole Lynn.
The case against her
As tempting as it all sounds, drafting a running back has proven to be very risky.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently explored the subject of running backs’ batting rates, which are determined by whether first-round running backs are selected or sign an extension before their team has to make a decision. Between 2011 and 2019, only five of the 13 first-round linebackers received an option for a fifth year or contract extension before their fourth season began. This is a success rate of 38.5%, the worst of any position and well below the 62% overall rate for first rounds over this stretch.
Using a better pick for Robinson would mark a huge shift by the Eagles, who haven’t selected a running back in the first round since 1986 (Keith Byars). Retreat is at the bottom of the list of priority jobs within the organization. Year after year, Philadelphia has shown that they believe in investing in quarterbacks and trenchers above all else. Former Eagles coach Andy Reid once said“I want two offensive tackles, the quarterback, two passes, two corners, and I’ll figure out the rest,” and the team has remained largely true to that philosophy, despite the growing importance of inside linemen.
And he succeeded. The Super Bowl winning backfield in 2017 has been pieced together over the course of the season. They signed Corey Clement as an undrafted free agent, signed veteran LeGarrette Blount to a one-year contract in May, and acquired Jay Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins at the trade deadline.
Last season, the Eagles dished out just over $5 million for the running back position—15th most in the NFL, per Spottrack—and finished fifth in rushing (147.6 yards per game). They’re expected to rank in the 24th in returning dollars this year ($6.1 million) with a group that includes Kenneth Ginwell, Boston Scott and recently signed Rashad Penny, who has dealt with a number of injuries during his career but has shone when right.
“We feel good about the room the way it is now,” said coach Nick Siriani. “She loved adding Rashad and wanted to train him for a long time.”
With Hurts expected to sign a deal that could run up to around $50 million per season in the near future, this would be a strange time to change the formula and funnel more dollars into the running back. The tenth general selection is She is set to receive a four-year, $22 million deal averaging $5.5 million per season.
What will they do?
The Eagles have been tempted by their first division backs in the past. They were heavily linked with Christian McCaffrey in the run-up to the 2017 draft, but he was taken by the Panthers in the eighth before the Philly start clock.
With a host of quarterbacks expected to start early, talent will be pushed further down the board this year. Add to that the fact that the running back position has been undervalued all over the league, and there’s a good chance Robinson will fall to the Eagles at 10 — or possibly less if Roseman trades the pick.
Odds are they won’t accept it. This management group was very predictable when it came to crafting habits. If the scores are close between two players or a group of players, they go with the positions they value – offensive and defensive line – almost every time. Despite Robinson’s quality, the Eagles aren’t likely to pass a ceiling-high player in a stellar position — as edge runners are. Terry WilsonAnd Miles Murphy And Nolan Smith You’d be expected to come off the board in that range, for example – given the high demand and low supply of spread makers in those league-wide positions.
It’s unlikely that the gap between Robinson and the rest of the available players is wide enough at 10 for the Eagles to go against the grain.
Choosing 30 could be a completely different story. If Robinson goes down because of how the running back position is projected across the league, there’s a real chance his value stands head and shoulders above the remaining field. When teams are faced with either turning away from an immediate-impact player with Pro Bowl potential or a border starter, even the heaviest draft boards begin to skew in favor of the former.
This is the most likely scenario in which Robinson lands in Philadelphia, where he would arguably have the best chance of taking the NFL by storm.