Next in our series of reviews of the Washington Capitals’ 2022-23 season performance, we’ll take a look at that Rasmus Sandinperformance this season.
On February 28, the Capitals shipped Erik Gustafsson and Boston’s 2023 first-round pick (acquired in a trade for Dmitri Orloff and Garnett Hathaway) to acquire Rasmus Sandin from the Toronto Maple Leafs. The trade marked the first real glimpse of General Manager Brian McClellan’s strategy to simultaneously field young players in the roster while rearranging the roster around the aging group of veterans.
Sandin is entering the final year of his current $1.4 million US contract. When his current contract expires, he will be a restricted free agent. With all those years of team dominance left, the Capitals can expect Sandin to play on the left side of their defensive team long term.
Statistics used in this post are courtesy The natural stats trickAnd Hockey evolutionAnd hockey referenceAnd Hockey Phys. Contract and transaction information is courtesy of cap friendly. If you would like to learn more about the statistical terminology used in this post, please check out the NHL Analytics Glossary.
Performance while playing five to five
We’ll go ahead and start our assessment by looking at Sandin’s overall performance this season, including his time in Toronto, mainly for comparison’s sake:
First thing’s first, we have to deal with what appears to be a definite dip in play after Sandin’s move to Washington. Part of what we can see here is obviously the result of playing on a better team in Toronto last season. With more talent around him, he has thrived in a relatively offensive role in Toronto.
After selling out at the deadline (and dealing with an injury-ridden end of the season), it was clear that the Capitals had less talent than the Maple Leafs this season. Although Sandin’s base metrics decreased slightly in the capital, his offensive actual production rate increased. In 19 games this season with Washington, he has scored 3 goals and 12 assists for 15 points. In 52 games in Toronto, he scored 4 goals and 16 assists for 20 points.
With a larger role, it became clear that Sandin could be effective in self-defense.
Let’s start by looking specifically at Sandin’s possession metric performance, which is measured by Corsi in percentage (CF%), Fenwick in percentage (FF%), and Shots in percentage (SF%):
Obviously, this is just another view of the data in the graph shared at the beginning of this section, but it’s important to consider performance here. It’s easy to look at the drop in possession metrics from his time in Toronto versus his time so far in the capital and think he’s underperformed after the deal.
I think that’s just one lens in dissecting this data. The other perspective is that the Capitals as a whole struggled in the possession department, posting 49.78 CF%, 49.53 FF%, and 50.05 SF%. There will also be an adjustment for Sandin to move from a smaller role in the Leafs’ blue line to a four in the Capitals role, as well as system changes from playing under a different coaching staff. Moreover, you have to build chemistry with your new teammates.
The following are the Sandin targets in percentage (GF%) and expected targets in percentage (xGF%):
Again, this is a commentary on the difference in roster quality between Toronto and Washington this season. The silver lining going forward here is that Sandin’s GF% exceeds xGF%, which indicates a higher rate of completion. This is an area where the Cubs as a whole have struggled this season.
Something to watch next season in this regard is the expectation of a higher xGF% from Sandin. With the offensive zone starting rate, he needs to be on the ice to get a higher number of scoring opportunities.
Speaking of scoring chances, let’s take a look at his scoring chances in percentage (SCF%), high risk chances in percentage (HDCF%), and high risk goals in percentage (HDGF%):
Again, we see the deviation between Toronto and Washington. I won’t go into that difference again, but the real bright side that has been consistent is Sandin’s tracking HDGF% is higher than HDCF%. This also indicates a higher rate of ability to finish.
doubles performance
Here’s a look at Sanden’s top three ice-timers this season. With so few games played, the other pairs had much smaller sample sizes, so they weren’t included since it’s hard to know if they’re really statistically significant at this point in time.
Interestingly, Sandin performed best in expected goal difference (which is goals against expected goals minus) in a role in which he was given a lower percentage of protected offensive zone starts. Part of that is that Sandeen is really effective on offense.
Sandin’s xG differential fell to negatives when paired with John Carlsson, but they controlled the majority of their scoring opportunities while on the ice together. And that xG differential can be a bit misleading because these two have been on the ice together for 3 goals and an expected 3.31 goals for that, so it’s not like they were scoring at an amazing low rate. Carlson and Sandin had controls at 55.21 CF%, 51.95 FF%, and 53.45 SF%.
The pairing with van Riemsdyk is interesting. Sandin had the highest xG differential when paired with TVR, but the lowest xGF% share while also receiving close to 70% offensive area. Their measures of tenure were slightly behind with 47.49 CF%, 44.16 FF%, and 44.22 SF%.
Player value metrics
Let’s take a look at how Sandin’s goals above replacement (GAR) and expected goals above replacement (xGAR) this season compare to other seasons during his career:
Although we’ve seen a significant drop in Sandin’s GAR rating from last year to his off-season, we’ve still seen a very consistent trend over the past couple of seasons. His xGAR fell above his actual GAR rating, which means the quality of play is there, but his actual scores fell a little short of that. This is not uncommon for young players, and Sandin is not even in his career years yet.
Here’s Sandin’s Modified Plus Minus Rate Method (RAPM), which is used to compare a player’s performance on key metrics with their average sixty minutes of play to the league average:
This demonstrates offensive defensive talent in the NHL today. He’s effective at scoring and generating good scoring chances and shot attempts, but he struggles defensively a bit in terms of xGA/60. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, he just needs to be used right.
I take Sandeen’s performance with a huge grain of salt. It’s been apparent that the Caps’ playing structure and strategy have really fallen short of expectations this season, which has led to the team parting ways with tough playing coach Blaine Forsythe.
isolated effect
Here’s Sandin’s isolated effect when he’s on the ice (via HockeyViz):
Overall, Sandin adds a lot of impact and value when he’s on the ice. HockeyViz’s drawing combines his time in Toronto and Washington, so we’re seeing a lot of positives from his time in Toronto boosting some of those numbers.
Overall, if you can get moderate defensive results with strong offensive results, that’s a positive for Washington who are desperate to address their offensive problems from this season.
2023-24 season predictions
I’ve seen some people consider Sandin as a replacement for Dmitry Orlov, but I actually think he’s a replacement for Erik Gustafsson. The Capitals definitely needed a secondary offensive defenseman to complement John Carlson, and by all appearances, Sandin fits that mold.
With Sandin’s smaller stature, he will need to be deployed to the right positions with the right defensive partner. It’s hard to envision who his partner will be next season considering we can expect a huge departure from the system Peter Laviolette has installed versus who the next DC coach will install.
For me, the acquisition of Sanden was a solid first step in making this team younger and more skilled. This is clearly the player archetype MacLellan is targeting in roster improvement in the off-season: players skilled in attack on affordable contracts with years of team control left over.
By Justin Trudell
Previous reviews over the phone
Alexander Alexeyev: 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season review
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Reviewing the 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season
Nick Jensen: Reviewing the 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season