There’s something to be said for taking control of your health by reducing stress.
Case in point was the Black Friday Jets-Dolphins game. It’s amazing how less traumatizing a Fail Mary Pick-Six can be when you have the intercepting team giving points as the Lock of the Week. Sad to say it’s only taken me 30 years to figure out that most of my Jets betting angst could have been avoided; that they largely have been self-inflicted wounds.
Now we get to see how long this revelation will last. We are faced with an interesting matchup on Sunday at MetLife Stadium between the Falcons and Jets. Atlanta is a two-point road favorite with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Ridder is a probably in a tier just above Zach Wilson in the quarterback hierarchy. He was benched for two games as Arthur Smith turned to Taylor Heinicke. He’s got seven touchdown passes versus eight interceptions on an offense with a lot of weapons. And he’s been sacked four times each by the Panthers and Jaguars, five times by the Titans and seven by the Lions.
The Jets’ defense amazingly has been undeterred by an offense that’s been bad and has been getting worse rapidly. They’re not the ’85 Bears, and their overall point and yardage stats aren’t even that impressive, but no quarterback wants to face them.
Guys like Quinnen Williams and Quincy Williams, Bryce Huff, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are still going at it hard. Though the Falcons have a marginally better team, this feels like a game where the Jets’ defense can cause a lot of problems for Ridder and set up Tim Boyle with some short fields. In and around seven Dolphins sacks, Boyle completed 27 of 38 passes so at least there’s some function, and he did hit Garrett Wilson for a touchdown, which is cause for a parade.
So just a week after going Zen, I’m back sticking my hands in the piranha tank.
The pick: Jets +2.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Bill Belichick’s lifeless squad is on a four-game skid and has scored just 47 points in those games. A surprise win over the Bills on Oct. 22 and some earlier competitive losses to the Eagles and Dolphins are ancient history. The Chargers are one of the great NFL mysteries. It’s incredible this stacked team doesn’t win more games and by wider margins.
Detroit Lions (-4) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Lions have been lagging of late, but I’m figuring the Thanksgiving loss to the Packers will serve as a wake-up call for a team that’s still in great shape in the NFC at 8-3. They’re 4-1 on the road with wins at the Chiefs, Packers, Bucs and Chargers — averaging 29 ppg in those games.
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Visiting Cardinals get a break with the weather. It may be dingy and wet but upper 50s temperatures are a lot better than the alternative in Pittsburgh in early December. Hoping Kyler Murray can do enough against a Steelers team whose past four games have been decided by four, four, three and six points.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) over TENNESSEE TITANS
It’s not quite as cut and dried as saying Derrick Henry is healthy for the Titans, and Jonathan Taylor is out for the Colts. That’s because the last time these teams met, a 23-16 Colts win, Zack Moss ran for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Moss is rarin’ to go.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+9.5) over Miami Dolphins
Not sure what to make of a midweek Dolphins injury report which lists eight offensive players as questionable — including Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert and 80 percent of the offensive line. Commanders are maddening but did have the two close losses to the Eagles. Willing to give Sam Howell and Terry McLaurin a shot to stay under a huge number at home.
Denver Broncos (+3.5) over TEXANS
Broncos have won five in a row, going 4-1 ATS. Little concerned about them offensively with WRs Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. on the injury report, but I’m thinking this will be a typical Texans game — close with a good chance of the margin landing at three or less. A Denver defense that once gave up 70 points in a single game to the Dolphins has yielded a total of 80 over the past five games. Quite a turnaround for Patrick Surtain II, Justin Simmons & Co.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers
Will the Panthers get the same dead-cat bounce after firing Frank Reich that the Colts got last year when they plucked Jeff Saturday off the couch, put him on the sidelines and beat the Raiders? Reich was a bad fit in Charlotte, but I doubt there will be a serious rally ’round the new guy, Chris Tabor. Carolina’s cupboard is pretty bare, and the Bucs should be smelling blood.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns
Hard to pass up a 7-4 team with a good defense plus more than a field goal against a 5-6 team in a stadium that holds very little home-field advantage. But with Joe Flacco likely to start, and both Amari Cooper and Myles Garrett listed as questionable, this version of the Browns could be a far cry from what they were earlier in the season.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Revenge game for last season’s NFC Championship when the 49ers lost Brock Purdy then Josh Johnson got hurt and Purdy had to go back in the game with a torn UCL. Now the Niners are healthy, loaded and on a three-game win streak with an average margin of 17 ppg.
Betting on the NFL?
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
It’s Patrick Mahomes’ first visit to Lambeau Field, and he will get a real taste of it with 29-degree temperatures and a coating of snow. The Pack showed a lot of life on Thanksgiving in Detroit but have a lot of defensive players listed on the injury report. Should be a fun Sunday nighter.
Monday
Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
No disrespect to the Jaguars, who have won by double digits in five of their eight victories. Just think we’ll see some improvement from Jake Browning and that this is a lot of points to be giving a team that’s got quite a few guys who played in championship games and the Super Bowl, even if Joe Burrow’s not one of them.
Best bets: Broncos, Commanders, Bengals
Lock of the week: Broncos (Locks 4-8 in 2023)
Last week: 9-6-1 overall, 3-0 Best Bets
Thursday: Cowboys (L)