The Kansas City Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, are the #1 team in ESPN’s Football Strength Index rankings for the 2023 NFL season. But interestingly, the model actually sees the Philadelphia Eagles — who lost to the Chiefs in the title game last season — as the Super Bowl favorites. It’s a result of the vast difference in quality between the NFL’s two conferences: The AFC is full of talent, while the NFC appears to have few contenders, clearing the way for Philly.
For starters, the Football Strength Index—commonly referred to as the FPI—is our rating and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s predictive ratings are based largely on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of the schedule, along with factors such as the team’s past performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, and create our predictions, which are updated daily during the season. Game predictions also factor in factors such as travel, rest teams, and changes to the starting quarterback.
Let’s take a closer look at preliminary assessments for 2023, including the storylines emerging from these numbers.
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Ratings | Super Bowl | narrow divisions
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Chiefs at No. 1 overall
Who else, really, could be #1? The offense is more stable from year to year than the defense, and it led the Chiefs in expected points added per game last season by a wide margin. They also bring back their two most important components in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Offensively, they are very good, and that alone is enough to put the Super Bowl champions back into the league lead to start next season.
After Kansas City, the pattern has held steady—the Buffalo Bills and Eagles were the next two best teams in the EPA offensive per game last season, and they’re ranked 2 and 3 here, respectively. (The Detroit Lions, who are ranked 4th in the category, rank 11th in the FPI due to a much weaker defense and perhaps less confidence in Jared Goff repeating his stellar campaign in 2022.)
The Cincinnati Bengals are fourth in the FPI ranking, running back their three key offensive tackles Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. Sensei also added Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle to cement her biggest weakness. Rounding out the top five are the San Francisco 49ers. Despite the lack of clarity at quarterback with Brock Purdy recovering from elbow surgery, their roster and Kyle Shanahan’s offensive playing letters are strong enough to warrant the higher rating.
Eagles to the Super Bowl?
The average AFC playoffs team in our simulations is roughly 2.4 points per game better than the average NFC team. This is a big reason why Philadelphia leads Kansas City in Super Bowl chances, 14% to 13%. The Chiefs also face a major challenge in their regular season schedule — the second-strongest team in the league, according to FPI — which dampens their prospects despite being the best team in football by almost a full point. The 49ers, Bills and Bengals round out the top five, while the Dallas Cowboys are the only other team over 5% (7%).
That the Eagles are the favorites at just 14% is an indication that this season is open a little wider than most. FPI made preseason forecasts going back to 2015, and 14% is the second lowest for our favorite in that time period. The 2016 Packers were only 12% favored (the lowest), while the 2017 Patriots were favored at 32%, which is the strongest by a massive margin. (We changed the model several times in that period, so it’s not a direct apples-to-apples comparison).
Tight races in the NFC South, NFC North and AFC East
Three sections of the projections emerged as particularly close together. The Woebegone NFC South may not have much going for it in 2023 — each team ranks 22nd or worse in FPI — but it’s getting tough. The New Orleans Saints, with freshman quarterback Derek Carr at the helm, are the expected winners but at just 42% — the shortest favorites in any division. The Atlanta Falcons (29%), Carolina Panthers (22%), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9%) all follow at least one possible path to a division title. But every NFC South team has a winning average expected under nine.
In the NFC North, the Lions are the favorite, at 43%. Although the Minnesota Vikings won the league last season with 13 wins, and the Lions missed the playoffs with nine, there is evidence that Detroit was – and still is – the better team. It had a higher point differential (plus-26) than Minnesota (minus-3) a year earlier, and the Lions ranked fourth in EPA per game on offense (Minnesota was 15th). The Vikings have a 29% tackle percentage in the division, while the Chicago Bears (16%) and Green Bay Packers (12%) hide.
East Asia is also narrow, but for a more compelling reason. The entire department is rated in the top half of the FPI ratings. Buffalo, which ranks second in the FPI ranking in the league, has only a 44% chance of winning the division because the New York Jets (25%) and Miami Dolphins (22%) are legitimate threats. Due to the strength of the division, the New England Patriots only have an 8% chance of winning despite being the 16th best team in the league from a model standpoint.
Come here planes!
It’s amazing what Aaron Rodgers (and a strong defense) can do for a team. The Jets come in sixth in the rankings and have a 9.5 win total (but they are shaded towards the top and come despite a tough schedule). They ranked fifth in the EPA per game on defense last season but 29th on offense. Obviously, the expectation is that things are going to change dramatically with the Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
Now, a high rating doesn’t mean the Jets’ outlook is very strong. We’re talking about a team that has a 25% chance of winning the division and a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. This is the schedule, the strength of the division and the talk of the conference. The Jets can be a good team at the same time and have a tough road to success, which is what the FPI suggests. However, I didn’t think New York was a lock to get ahead of the Dolphins, and it’s a good sign for the Jets that the numbers are down that way.
This is the ninth season FPI has offered preseason forecasts, and it’s the first time the Jets have had a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl — let alone a 4% chance — entering the season.
The Patriots face the toughest NFL schedule
Everyone knows that measuring the strength of the schedule with the previous season’s win percentage is deeply flawed. The Bengals are certainly a tougher opponent than, say, the Vikings, even though Minnesota won more games last year. With FPI, we can get closer to the true measure of the strength of the timeline because it looks at opponents based on their predicted strength. And when the numbers are running, there’s one team sticking to a tougher schedule: the Patriots.
It probably shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, since the other three AFC East teams sit in the top nine in the FPI and the Patriots have to face all of them twice. Additionally, New England is competing against both participants in last year’s Super Bowl.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Saints, who have the easiest bylaw in the NFL. New Orleans benefits from playing in the weak NFC South and not facing a single team in the FPI’s Top 10 the entire season.
Is Sean Payton the savior of the Broncos?
After a thoroughly disappointing 2022 campaign that yielded an uneven experience with Nathaniel Hackett, the Denver Broncos FPI rankings seem…surprisingly optimistic? Russell Wilson is still the quarterback, but Payton is on as a new coach, and depending on the model, could be a pretty respectable Broncos in 2023. Denver ranks 13th in FPI, has a projection of 8.4 wins, and despite playing in the AFC, He gets a 34% chance of getting into the playoffs.
But it’s not just Payton. There is a lot of talent in the Broncos. The defense ranked eighth in the EPA per game last season, and Wilson was among the top ten QBRs just two years ago. In addition, the team has a very strong receiver – Jerry Goody Receiver tracking metrics He points out that he broke more than the 972 yards he could have indicated last season — and added to an already strong offensive line this offseason. The biggest concern remains Wilson, but if he can spot that, there’s a lot to like about Denver.
FPI buys new eras for the Lions and Jaguars
On the heels of strong 2022 campaigns, FPI got into the hype about the Lions (No. 11) and Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 12). For Lions, the news is even better. As the fourth-best team in the weak NFC, Detroit has a 65% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl—seventh highest among all teams. The Jaguars’ prognosis isn’t much worse because they play in a weak division, which actually gives them a slightly higher chance of making the playoffs (67%) and still a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Both teams have shown proven success on offense with their current quarterbacks, being ranked in the EPA’s top 10 per game last season. Goff was ranked 5th QBR last season for Detroit, while Trevor Lawrence ranked 15th (but he was saddled with a weak offensive line and a weak wide receiver that Calvin Ridley has since added).
The Cardinals’ indoor track to a No. 1 draft pick
Even without the trade to the Texans, who selected Will Anderson Jr., the Arizona Cardinals were the favorites to win the 2024 draft, according to the FPI. The Cardinals’ pick has an 18% chance of being the first pick. Right behind them, however, are the Houston Texans at 13%. The Cardinals have the Houston pick, thanks to a draft day move from Texas to third place for drafting Anderson. In other words, before playing bottom this year, the Cardinals have a 31% chance of being a #1 pick in 2024. Those two picks have a 57% and 46% chance of being in the top five, respectively, as well.
It’s no shock that Arizona would see the team likely to have the fewest wins. With Kyler Murray’s health up in the air, it looks like the team will be starting Colt McCoy at quarterback and have holes in the roster.
The Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, and Los Angeles Rams — yes, the Rams already control their first-round pick next year — are the next three teams most likely to win this No. 1 pick.