Back in Week 4, the Buffalo Bills thrashed the Miami Dolphins with a 48-20 victory. Now, 14 weeks later, the Dolphins are looking to avenge that loss and claim their first AFC East division title since 2008. The second-half of the annual home-and-home series between the AFC East rivals comes as the final game of the 2023 NFL regular season, taking the primetime spot as the Sunday Night Football broadcast.
Miami enters the week with a one-game lead over the Bills in the division and in the second seed spot in the AFC playoff picture. A win locks them into both of those spots, but a loss slides them down to the sixth-seed position as a wild card team. The Bills with the win would tie Miami, with both teams 11-6, but would have the season sweep tiebreak to push them into their fourth-straight AFC East title. A Bills loss could have them in the sixth seed, the seventh seed, or out of the playoffs.
The Dolphins remain the top offense in the league, averaging 409.2 yards per game. They have the top passing offense, with a 271.7 yards per game average, along with the fifth-ranked rushing offense, averaging 137.5 yards per game. Their 30.1 points per game leads the league.
Buffalo’s offense is fifth-ranked, averaging 368.3 yards per game, with the 10th-ranked passing offense (238.1 yards per game) and the seventh-ranked rushing offense (130.3 yards per game). Their 26.9 points per game average ranks sixth in the league.
Miami’s defense feel to ninth in the league after the drubbing they took from the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17, now averaging 308.6 yards per game allowed. Miami’s pass defense is 12th in the league allowing 213.5 yards per game, while the rush defense is seventh, giving up 95.1 yards per game this year. Miami’s scoring defense is 22nd in the league, giving up 23.1 points per game.
The Bills’ defense is just behind Miami, ranked 10th overall with 309.2 yards per game allowed. Buffalo is allowing 198.4 yards per game through the air, ranking them seventh in pass defense. Their run defense is 15th, giving up 110.8 yards per contest. The Bills are only allowing an average of 18.6 points per game, making them the fourth-best scoring defense in the league.
The Week 4 meeting between the teams in Buffalo started how everyone expected, with the teams finding the endzone early and often. Buffalo scored on the opening drive of the game, with the Dolphins responding four minutes later. The Bills then scored on their second possession, with Miami matching. The third drive for Buffalo, just under three minutes later, kept Buffalo a perfect three-for-three on touchdown possessions. Miami could not match, going three-and-out with the day’s first punt. Buffalo punted after four plays on their next possession, giving Miami a chance to pull back even – but the Dolphins again went three-and-out. The Bills scored on a two-play, 59-yard drive that began with quarterback Josh Allen connecting with wide receiver Stefon Diggs for a 55-yard gain before running back James Cook punched it in on the four-yard run. Miami fumbled on their next possession, with the Bills losing four yards on the resulting drive but kicking a field goal. A Miami three-and-out and a Buffalo kneel killed the first-half clock with Buffalo up 31-14.
Miami began the second half with a touchdown drive, capped with a pass from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to wide receiver Braxton Berrios for the 11-yard score. Miami failed on the two-point conversion, but closed the gap to 31-20 and looked like they may be able to claw their way back into the contest. The Bills quickly slammed that door shut, however, as they kicked a field goal on their next possession, then picked off Tagovailoa, giving them the ball at the Miami 25-yard line. Four plays later, the Bills found the endzone again. Miami’s next three drives all ended with a turnover on downs, while the Bills added one more touchdown to finish the game 48-20.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, this game should be closer than the Week 4 game. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points. A Dolphins straight-up win is +130 on the moneyline while the Bills are -155. The point total is set at a combined 48 points.
We have all the basics for watching this weekend’s Bills at Dolphins AFC East championship game. We are also collecting all of our pre-, in-, and post-game coverage for you right here, giving you a one-stop shop for all our game coverage.
Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (11-5)
2023 NFL Week 18 Sunday Night Football
- When: Sunday, January 7, 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Coverage: NBC
- Broadcast Team: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark
- National Radio Broadcast: Westwood One
- National Radio Broadcast Team: Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic
- Dolphins Radio Network: iHeart Radio (WINZ 940 AM, WBGG 105.9 FM, WTZU 94.49 (Spanish)) in Miami
- Dolphins Radio Broadcast Team: Jimmy Cefalo, Joe Rose, Kim Bokamper
- SiriusXM Channels: 88 (National), 226 (Bills), 225 (Dolphins), 229 (Spanish)
- Streaming Options: fuboTV; YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket); Peacock; NFL+ (Replay after the game)
SB Nation Bills Coverage: Buffalo Rumblings | @BuffRumblings
AFC East standings (through Week 17):
Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Buffalo Bills (10-6) – 1 GB
New York Jets (6-10) – Eliminated
New England Patriots (4-12) – Eliminated
Week 17 schedule:
Jets at Patriots, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Bills at Dolphins, 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday
AFC playoff picture (through Week 17):
1 – Baltimore Ravens (13-3, AFC North leader)xyz
2 – Miami Dolphins (11-5, AFC East leader)x
3 – Kansas City Chiefs (10-6, AFC West leader)y
4 – Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7, AFC South leader)
5 – Cleveland Browns (11-5, Wild Card 1 position)x
6 – Buffalo Bills (10-6, Wild Card 2 position)
7 – Indianapolis Colts (9-7, Wild Card 3 position)
Houston Texans (9-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Eliminated:
Denver Broncos (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Las Vegas Raiders (7-9)
New York Jets (6-10)
Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
New England Patriots (4-12)
x Playoff berth clinched
y Division title clinched
z Homefield advantage/first-round bye clinched
Tiebreaks:
- Jaguars over Colts and Texans based on head-to-head results
- Colts over Texans based on head-to-head results (divisional tiebreak); Colts over Steelers based on head-to-head results.
- Texans over Steelers based on head-to-head results
- Broncos over Bengals based on AFC winning percentage
- Titans over Chargers based on head-to-head results
NFC Playoff Picture (through Week 17)
1 – San Francisco 49ers (12-4, NFC West leader)xyz
2 – Dallas Cowboys (11-5, NFC East leader)x
3 – Detroit Lions (11-5, NFC North leader)y
4 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8, NFC South leader)
5 – Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, Wild Card 1 position)x
6 – Los Angeles Rams (9-7, Wild Card 2 position)x
7 – Green Bay Packers (8-8, Wild Card 3 position)
Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Atlanta Falcons (7-9)*
Eliminated:
Chicago Bears (7-9)*
New York Giants (5-11)
Washington Commanders (4-12)
Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Carolina Panthers (2-14)
x Playoff berth clinched
y Division title clinched
*Note: The Bears are ahead of the Falcons in the standings, but the Falcons have not been eliminated from the NFC South division title, keeping them above the “Eliminated” group.
Tiebreaks:
- Cowboys over Eagles based on NFC winning percentage (divisional tiebreak); Cowboys over Lions based on head-to-head results
- Buccaneers over Saints based on common games winning percentage
- Packers over Seahawks based on strength of victory; Packers over Saints based on NFC winning percentage
- Seahawks over Saints based on NFC winning percentage
- Vikings over Bears based on common games winning percentage (divisional tiebreak); Vikings over Falcons based on head-to-head results
- Bears over Falcons based on head-to-head results
- Commanders over Cardinals based on head-to-head results