We’re heading into the final week of the XFL regular season, and four teams are vying for the two remaining playoff spots.
In the North Division, the Seattle Seattle Dragons and St. Louis Battlehawks enter Week 10 with identical records of 6-3. The Battlehawks take on the Orlando Guardians on Saturday, while the Sea Dragons take on the Vegas Vipers on Sunday. If one team wins and the other loses, the winner will earn a playoff spot as the North Division runner-up.
If both teams win or lose, a tiebreaker will go down to the team with the best combined ranking in points scored and points allowed in division games. If this is a tie, the team with the best total points scored and points allowed in all league matches will be awarded the spot. Whoever wins will travel to face the #1 seed DC Defenders in the North Division Championship on April 30.
In the South Division, the hunt for second place is between the Arlington Renegades (4-5) and San Antonio Brahmas (3-6). To prevail, the Rebels need to beat the Houston Roughnecks, who have already clinched first place in the division, or lose the Brahma to the Defenders. The brahmanas can get the win and lose the apostates.
San Antonio would get runner-up if they finished with the same record because they would win on the strength of an all-game tiebreaker. Whoever gets the win will travel to Houston to take on the Roughnecks for the Southern Division Championship on April 29.
Here’s what to expect in Week 10, along with picks from ESPN sports betting Doug Kizirian. The betting lines are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Saturday, 12 p.m., ET | ESPN and ESPN+
Spread: STL -9.0 (47.5)
The Battlehawks find themselves in trouble after failing to clinch a playoff spot in Week 9 against the Sea Dragons. The 18-point loss was the largest margin of defeat this season. Even though they are playing the team with the worst record in the league, it may not be as easy as it looks. While the Guardians were already eliminated from the postseason, they were far more competitive, giving the Defenders their only loss of the season in Week 7 while losing the previous two weeks by four points.
Players to watch: Both offenses had passing issues last week. The Guardians’ linebackers struggled against Brahmas, as Quinten Dormady and Deondre Francois threw for 67 yards with two passes and an interception. But running back Devin Darrington sparked on the ground, finishing with 133 yards and a touchdown. Battlehawks quarterback AJ McCarron also struggled last week, throwing a season-high two interceptions and only 186 receiving yards, his second-fewest total of the season.
Kezirian’s Choice: Over 47.5. St. Louis is alive in the playoffs but needs some help. Not only do Battlehawks need to win, they need to score a lot of points. They don’t know the exact number because they play first this weekend, but they should make a quick attack for the entire game.
Raise your hand if you don’t believe it’s already the 10th week ✋ pic.twitter.com/TsadL4wjAY
– St. Louis Battlehawks (XFLBattlehawks) April 19, 2023
Saturday, 3 p.m., ET | ABC, ESPN+, and ESPN Deportes
Spread: DC -2.5 (41.5)
The Brahmas got the help they needed last week, surviving by defeating the Guardians as the Renegades lost to the Defenders. But winning this weekend could be a daunting task, as San Antonio faces the Defenders with the league’s best record and highest offense (29.8 points per game). The defensemen’s rushing offense leads the league in yards (1,318 yards) and touchdowns (14). Meanwhile, the Brahmas have the league’s strongest defense (17.0 points per game) and the second-lowest offense (15.6).
Players to watch: The Defenders’ leading rushing running back Abram Smith, who leads the league in rushing yards (747). Their running game is complemented by the receiving duo of Chris Blair and Lucky Jackson, both of whom rank in the top four in receiving yards. Brahms’ defense centers around linebacker Jordan Williams, who ranks first in the league in tackles (82) and tackles for loss (12). Defensive linebacker Delontay Scott is tied for second in the league (7.5).
Kizirian’s Choice: Less than 42. DC figures to comfort its beginners and doesn’t score easily. Although Brahmas still have something to play for, their attack is very methodical and run-oriented.
Sunday, 3 p.m., ET | ESPN and ESPN+
Spread: ARL-1.0 (42.5)
The Rebels came close to securing a playoff spot last week, losing in overtime to the Defenders. To finish the job they have to beat the violent ones. If the Rebels are victorious this week, the Divisional Championship Game will be a rematch between these two teams.
Players to watch: Last week, Luis Perez went 31-for-41 and had 335 receiving yards, the best performance by a Renegades quarterback all season. Wide receiver Tyler Vaughns also had a season-high 63 yards. Sal Cannella has been a repeat target with 39 receptions this season, sixth most in the league. But they’ll face a tough defense that boasts defensive back Gene Harris, who leads the XFL in interceptions (5), and outside linebacker Trent Harris, first in sacks (8.5).
Kezirian’s Pick: Arlington -1. Houston may rest some starters, while Arlington controls playoff fate. And since there’s a good chance these two teams will face each other next week in the playoffs, I would expect the Roughnecks to use the vanilla offense.
Sunday, 7 p.m., ET | ESPN2, ESPN+
Spread: Sea – 8.5 (47.5)
This must-win game for the Sea Dragons is a rematch from Week 3, when Seattle won 30-26. Even with a 2-7 record, the Vipers can be tough opponents, forcing opponents to commit three turnovers in each of their last two games.
Players to watch: The Sea Dragons’ receiving quarterback duo, Ben DiNucci and Jahkor Pearson, continued to direct their offense. DiNucci has 2,332 passing yards, while Pearson has 628, both leading the XFL. Vipers quarterback Jalan McClendon had 249 yards, two touchdown passes, and completed 73% of his throws last week, his best performance since becoming a starter in Week 7.
Kezirian’s Choice: Seattle -8.5. This is a chance to be one of the best games all season, assuming St. Louis wins and scores a lot of points. This means that the Sea Dragons will be motivated to light up the scoreboard, while the Vipers figure to play the reserves.
back to work. pic.twitter.com/puZ9kmTNhl
– Seattle Sea Dragons (XFLS SeaDragons) April 19, 2023
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face to face
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Best win/loss ratio in division games
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Strength in Winning All Matches – Combined record of opponent wins
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The joint best ranking among division teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
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The joint best ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
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Best net score in all games
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The best tactile network in all games
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toss a coin