The Toronto Maple Leafs have stated several times this season that they want to re-sign all four of their starting players. This is good news for some Leaf fans who want to see if they can get through to the playoffs so they can finally win the Stanley Cup. Over the next two seasons, with the players guarantee paid, it is estimated The salary cap could go up by about $4 million. If this is the case, it would give the Maple Leafs more leeway to sign free agents, including the top four players whose contracts expire after the next two seasons. The catch is if they signed all four of their best players, even with the cap lifted, they could still be in the same predicament they are in now.
Leafs Cap issues lead to playoff disappointment
Every season, the Maple Leafs have one of the best teams in the league, but it’s the same old story: They fail to go anywhere when it counts in the playoffs. The usual reasons are that the team does not have enough grit or that the goaltending and the defense are not good enough. The biggest problem with any of that is that the Maple Leafs don’t have the cover space to improve defense or goaltending. As for grit, they are not at liberty to make a player with the guts play in the top six; Instead, they get players with the nerve to play in the bottom six, which is appropriate for the regular season but not so much for the playoffs. Former General Manager (GM) Kyle Dubas tried to fill in the gaps as best he could, but with little money came limited talent.
With the high contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander, it was difficult for Dubas to spend money on more high-end talent. That’s what hurt Toronto in the playoffs, not a lack of superior goalkeeping or a lack of a strong defensive team. Dubas’s got grit, but not the kind who can play his best six minutes during qualifying. Depth was also an issue. The team did not have skilled players in the bottom six who could move into the top six when needed, and this kept the Maple Leafs from advancing into the playoffs. If a team can find plenty of space to sign high-performance talent, they can have the recipe for a trophy.
The Leafs have a lot of players to sign
The Leafs have 12 players who need contracts this season, and none of them are major players. Seven forwards and three defensemen are unrestricted free agents (UFA) and two of the players are restricted free agents (RFA). With a projected cap size of just over $9 million for the 2023-24 season, there is little room for them to re-sign their players or sign free agents. The Leafs have already hinted that they will not re-sign Michael Bunting, Alexander Kerfoot and Justin Hall. Victor Mette is an RFA and is unlikely to return to Toronto. This leaves only eight players to re-sign but there is still vacant space. To fill these points, they would need to spend all, if not most, of their remaining cap. Using beginners can work, but as a competitive team, they don’t want a lineup with too many inexperienced players.
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If the Maple Leafs continue to sign talented mid-level players to fill the bottom six spots, they will continue to fall short of the playoffs. The Vegas Golden Knights have proven that depth is the key to winning this season when they won the cup, and the foliage could not form the proper depth. As long as a big four takes up the cap space, they won’t be able to sign the right depth to replicate what Vegas did this season. Eight spots must be filled by 15 of the 23 players signed next season. Goalie Ilya Samsonov is likely to be re-signed and given an uptick, and Nick Robertson and Matthew Kniss could take two more spots. That leaves five spots for the Leafs to fill in their $9 million cap, which is less than $2 million per player, not counting Samsonov’s salary, and that doesn’t give Toronto the depth it needs.
Maple Leafs need to make a big move
When you have the talent of the Maple Leafs, it’s hard to imagine one of the core four being carried over, but when year after year you fail to reach your goals, a change is needed. Toronto can’t keep signing short-term contracts with players at the bottom of the list, and they think they’ll get farther than the year before. They need to free up not just a little space but a lot, especially if these huge contracts are to expire in the next couple of seasons. In order for the Leafs to give Marner, Matthews, Tavares and Nylander back, they have to give all of them, except Tavares, a raise. Even with the cap increased, the Maple Leafs will remain in the same position due to increased contracts, which means they will still need to sign small, short-term contracts with players they hope to have career seasons.
If the Leafs want to add the depth they need, they must let one of their top four players go. The best way to do this is to trade one of them, and if management won’t get extension terms from one of them to help the team, it’s time to look elsewhere and trade the player for as many assets as possible. The Core Four’s contracts are terminated over the next two seasons, and Toronto has most of their other contracts over the next two seasons. They only have eight players signed during 2024-25; Of course, they’ll sign at least one or two Core Fours before then, but those next two seasons are pivotal.
The Maple Leafs have other options, such as buying Matt Murray or trading him to other players, but none of those moves will give them the relief that would come if they dismantled the Core Four. They also can’t let these players walk away at the end of their contracts, so a trade is a must if new GM Brad Treliving feels they need to make a significant move, which he’s not afraid to do.