Some things go together and one of the things that was definitely in the back of my head after the Leafs finally won the round was that there was a very real possibility that they would get swept in the second round. Amazingly, the Leafs can still go 20 years without a win going into the second round if Florida completes their sweep on Wednesday. Personally, I find myself torn. There are four instances in history of a team doing a reverse sweep and there can be a question, “Why don’t we?” way to approach this. On the other hand, only four teams have made it to the reverse sweep, and it would be more humane to put the Leafs out of their misery in Game 4 than watch Toronto come back to tie the series and lose in Game 7. The weather is nice and it looks like we’re playing rough.
The thing about this series is that Leafs are not badly beaten. They haven’t been as slick or dominant as they could be against the Florida Panthers, but 4-2, 3-2, and 3-2 in the OT alone is no reason to check all things Leafs Hockey Ops. The fact that such things keep happening is the biggest cause for concern.
The Leafs core four bears the brunt of the criticism and that’s largely fair. Austin Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner were completely absent from the series. Marner so far has 1 assist, 20% of goals, 42% of goals expected and 46% for Corsi. John Tavares has no points in this round.
In contrast, Nylander, Matthews, Marner and Tavares lead the Leafs in shots taken, but the zero goals between them on 49 shots combined is something that will completely sink the team. Some of that can be attributed to Sergei Bobrovsky, and the rest has to be attributed to other things, such as this group’s failure to up their game in a meaningful way during the playoffs.
Individual expected goals leaders
player | Objectives | ixG |
John Tavares | 0 | 2.02 |
William Nylander | 0 | 1.78 |
Austin Mathews | 0 | 1.7 |
Ryan O’Reilly | 1 | 1.03 |
Mitchell Marner | 0 | 0.82 |
I think this is the biggest criticism of this group. Things get tough in the playoffs, opponents step up their game against the Stars, and the Toronto Stars didn’t, at least in the second round. Marner and Matthews are two players that are routinely argued to be superior players to Leon Draisaitl when we discuss the regular season and there’s no question that similar coverage of these players would happen in the playoffs however you look at what McDavid and Draisaitl were able to accomplish in the playoffs versus what we’ve seen from the Toronto group . Nobody tried to take over a game in the second round, and frankly, the Leafs pretty much went through the motions in the first round as well, except for the final minutes of every game.
Sometimes this seems like the easy way to blame the coach for these shortcomings, other times it is a matter of remembering who is responsible for getting the best out of this line-up and putting the players somewhere to be successful. Sheldon Keefe hasn’t done much with getting the performances out of his stars or finding a way to put them in perfect situations. The fact that Keefe hasn’t found air for his star players and seems content to roll four lines at a time of year when most teams fall short of their benches is unacceptable. The fact that the Leafs still seem at a loss as to how Florida will resolve it is.
Now Toronto would probably be without Ilya Samsonov. Landing Joseph Woll may not have been as significant as he would be sold, but Woll sure had a few rookie moments mixed in with a few game-saving moments. The road ahead is a tough one, but in this defeatist-filled article, I’m going to say that four straight wins against the Florida Panthers doesn’t seem like an impossible thing to achieve.
What is more likely is a summer of tough decisions. There is no doubt about the skill of Leafs core, but that doesn’t change the fact that this core may not be able to win together. Do the Leafs need a coach who can push this group forward in a productive way? Is there a balance somewhere between Babcock’s hyperactive hands and his desire for players to do the things they are at their worst and Sheldon’s hand how he raises his hand and players wanting to channel their power exclusively? I definitely have opinions on these already but we will wait for the handshake line before going into off season mode.
For now, one last dose of reality is here. After this round, there will only be four teams playing hockey. The Leafs were in the top eight in the league and that was pretty much what could reasonably be expected of them. If Toronto had tied Boston in the second round, I probably wouldn’t have written a timid look at the 0-3 start to the second round, that would have been expected. Maybe a team that knocked down the Bruins so well shouldn’t be the shock we take it as. The Leafs are still a good team, but the question remains, how do they become a championship team? If this answer is based on luck, the Maple Leafs will be dismantled forever.