We continue to review the Washington Capitals odds and forecast series with Lucas Johansen, Defender of Hershey’s Bears. (You can access all of the Capitals’ prospects reports and player analysis on the ‘Prospects’ page in the top menu or here.)
Vitals
Johansen, 25, of Port Moody, British Columbia, was a first-round draft pick (28th overall) by the Washington Capitals in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. The Capitals signed Johansen to a three-year, entry-level contract on March 2, 2017 and re-signed him for a year. One on October 3, 2020. The Capitals announced on July 8, 2022 that they had re-signed Johansen to a two-year contract. The first year of his contract was a two-way deal, keeping him off waivers for the 2022-23 season. He will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights at the end of the 2023-24 season.
Career summary
Johansen had very good offensive numbers in his sophomore year with the Kelowna Rockets. At just 18 years old, Johansen scored 10 goals and 39 assists for 49 points in 69 games during the 2015-2016 season.
Johansen scored six goals, 35 assists for 41 points in 68 games with the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL in 2016-17. That was good enough for second among Rockets defensemen in points, goals and assists.
Johansen transferred to the Hershey Bears for the 2017-2018 season. After a slow, offensive start, Johansen began to show signs of his scoring abilities during the latter half of the season. Defensively, it’s hard to tally the overall progress Johansen made last season, considering Ballul’s troubles with the Bears.
It was a disappointing 2018-2019 season for “LuJo”. The major injury, exacerbated by below average play, made the 2018-2019 season forgettable for him. His puck-handling and passing have suffered a lot this season, particularly passing into his own zone, running the puck into the blueline, and entering opponents’ territory.
Offensively, Johansen scored just three goals and 11 assists in 45 regular season games played. He only hit 50 shots in those 45 games. Johansen was 20th on the Bears’ list in points per game with an average of 0.31 points per game. He was 14th on the Bears in PIMs with 22 for the regular season. Johansen recorded two assists in nine postseason games.
Defensively, Johansen, who played in the bottom of the pair for the majority of the season, was -14, the second worst on the Bears (Colby Williams was -15). Johansen is slowly rediscovering his game in the AHL on the defensive side, but there are still plenty of mistakes and foul assignments.
The 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons were mainly lost seasons for Johansen, who played in just nine games in the 2019-20 season and just five in the 2020-21 season. He missed the greater part of both seasons due to injury. Seasons was basically a wash in terms of development.
The 2021-22 season was Johansen’s best season yet in the AHL. First and foremost, he remained relatively healthy throughout the season, playing 62 regular season games and all three postseason games. Johansen had only played a total of 133 games in the AHL in the previous four seasons.
Johansen showed great progress on both ends of the ice. Offensively, he posted a career-high eight goals and 20 assists during the regular season. He also added an assist in the postseason. Defensively, Johansen also showed progression, with fewer snap assignments and turnovers, and showed much better individual play in the defensive zone. He was called up to the Capitals at the end of December and made his NHL debut on December 31 against the Red Wings in Detroit and recorded an assist in the game.
The 2022-23 season was a solid season in the AHL for Johansen, his fifth season with the Bears (267 games), as he focused the bottom pair with the Bears for most of the season. There were occasional sanitary scratches along the way. Offensively, he recorded just one goal and six assists in 40 regular season games played. Johansen scored two goals and four assists in the post-season, proved crucial blocked shots and was tied for the team for best plus/minus at +6 in 20 post-season games.
Monthly summary and analysis of trends from 2022 to 2023
Below is a compilation of our monthly predictions for Lukas Johanssen during the 2022-23 season. You can find all of your monthly leads on the “Prospects” page in the top menu.
October
It was a fairly uneventful start for Johansen. He skated in the first five games of the season before missing the final game of the month on October 30 with an upper body injury. The Vancouver, British Columbia native has scored one goal on the offensive season. It would be his only goal of the regular season.
Lukas Johansen, for his 200th AHL career hit, makes it 4-2. # the capper #HBH pic.twitter.com/wZJBcatIyD
– Capitals Horizons (@jon_m_sorensen) October 29, 2022
On the other end of the ice, Johansen was up and down a bit. He started strong in the opening weekend, playing a solid game. Johansen struggled defensively in Charlotte. Checkers’ speed sometimes got him into trouble, forcing him to make a poor pass and causing him to flip. Johansen is sometimes a little sloppy with the puck.
Monthly score: 2.5
November
An infection bug hit Johanssen in November. The Vancouver, BC native saw action in just three games in the month.
He recorded a minor assist in his first-half tally against Bridgeport on November 11. Johansen did not play while injured in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on November 18.
Monthly score: 2.5
December
Johansen played just four games for the Bears in December, as he was called up by the Capitals twice during the month. Johansen had one game with the Capitals, against Winnipeg on December 11, clocking in at 13:32 ice time. Other than that, Johansen was a scratch.
Johansen seems to have taken on the “next defender” role at this point in the season (ninth defender), and it’s not a bad spot for him in his career. However, it remains to be seen if he will see much action with the Capitals in the future.
Monthly score: 2.5
January
After enjoying a breakout year last season, Johansen unfortunately once again found it difficult to stay in the line-up. Skating in only three games in January, he was plagued by a combination of illness and injury, and played in only 16 games this season.
The Vancouver, British Columbia native was held scoreless in those competitions. Johansen hasn’t scored a point since getting an assist on November 11 and has two points on the season.
Monthly score: 2.0
February
Johansen made a pair of assists in February. This was his highest point of the season, as he entered the month with just two points. However, the Vancouver, British Columbia native had a disappointing season, playing in only 24 of Hershey’s 52 games. Injury and illness plagued Johansen. His breakout season from a year ago seems like a distant memory.
On the plus side, he made eight appearances in February, which is the most he has played in a month this season. Johansen’s pass came on February 19 in Charlotte and was on a diagonal pass that sent Ethen Frank up for a goal. His other assist came in the first game of the month on February 1 when Conor McMichael redirected his shot for the Bears’ first goal at Lehigh Valley.
Monthly score: 2.5
He walks
The good news for Johansen is that he played 10 games in March, the most he has played in a month this season. The Vancouver, BC native also collected a season-best three points in March. He now has seven points on the season. All three of his points came as assists. Johansen’s back-handed feed back Joe Snively’s Second half equalizer against Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on March 1.
He also scored the starting assist on Hershey’s opening goal at Providence on March 11 after Beck Mallenstein He redirected his home shot. Defensively, it was a mixed bag for the defenseman. He has some good games, but then he struggles in others. Johansen still hasn’t found the consistency he showed last season.
Monthly score: 2.5
POSTSEASON
Johansen’s post-season was perhaps the best stretch of his professional career. He came off big with several blocked key shots at critical stages of matches and was tied in the team for the best plus/minus mark at +6. He also scored his first goal since October 28th.
Mike Vecchione found the running back Lucas Johansen to give the Bears a 2-1 lead early in the third period. It’s Lugo’s first goal since October 28th. Cheat bears have both tonight. #HBH # the capper pic.twitter.com/bKih1X9XaP
– Capitals Horizons (@jon_m_sorensen) May 18, 2023
Johansen was big when he had to in the post season. He ended up scoring two goals and four assists in 20 games, doubling his goal totals from the regular season.
Monthly score: 3.5
Summary of monthly results
player expectation
Johansen’s regular season was disappointing, but his postseason was very good. When pressed hard by the media about whether Johansen could make the Capitals’ roster next season, Capitals assistant general manager Ross Mahoney said he loved Johansen’s post-season, and that he had a chance. I’m not sure how Mahoney is supposed to respond, I just don’t see him closing any opportunities for players in the middle of the summer.
For me, Vincent Ioreo is already ahead of Johansen on the depth chart for the organization. Newly acquired Hardy Hamen Aktel could be ahead of Johansen as well. I just need to see more of his play, for myself. Regardless, I have Johansen currently in ninth place on the overall defensive depth chart for D.C., right behind Alex Alexeev (vii) f Vincent Yorio (VIII). That could change at training camp. trade for Joel Edmondson is also a direct reflection of Johansen’s current position in the team.
It’s been a pleasure watching every game of Johansen’s game in the AHL (267), and I still feel he’s the best fit to develop his craft on the Bears blueline for the 2023-24 season. He could get games with the Capitals, but he’ll have to clear waivers this season in order to get back to the Bears. This could greatly affect how it is published.
Written by John Sorensen
2022-2023 Lead Reviews and Forecasts
Ethan Frank
Vincent Yorio
Joe Snelly
Conor McMichael
Hendrix Lapierre
Beck Mallenstein
Hunter Shepard
Ivan Miroshnichenko
Ryan Chesley
Riley Souter
Joachim Lemay
Mitchell Gibson
Chase Clark
Brent Johnson
David Gucciardi
Oscar Magnuson
Jake Carabella
Ludwig Persson
Clay Stephenson
Bear Hughes
Haakon Hanelt
Benton Mass
Martin Haas
Henrik Rybinski
Bogdan Trenev
Alexander Suzdalev
Ryan Hoover
Drew Krebs
Monthly prospect reports
October
November
December
January
February
He walks