I’m sure this will be an annual tradition until John Tavares’ contract expires, and given the fact that he’ll very likely want to re-sign a few summers from now, we may spend the better part of the next decade asking, “What happens when John Tavares’ play stops?” ?
There are certainly a lot of concerns about what Tavares will look like this season. Admittedly, I thought we’d see the move to the wing earlier in the year rather than the occasional dribbling we saw after Ryan O’Reilly’s arrival, but to some extent, keeping Tavares in the center was based on the fact that Toronto didn’t really let themselves have any other choice than Keep Tavares in the middle. I don’t think there was anything wrong with keeping him there, but the defensive break is one of those things that should always be kept in the back of our minds too when considering whether Tavares is still the right guy to focus on the second line.
John Tavares seems to be the epitome of consistency and at 32 years old, that’s not too shabby. The dropout everyone feared could happen in the last two years of his contract, but with goals scored and generally everything else consistent, John Tavares lives up to the player he always was.
John Tavares lives up to his abilities and John Tavares’ commitment under his contract remain two separate issues. John Tavares as a point-per-player is great, but John Tavares as an $11 million player leaves something to be desired and that’s when match predictions start to creep into the conversation. This is where opinions about Tavares are born.
Tavares’ criticism, largely due to the status of his contract, has led to concerns about the fact that his points come primarily from the powerplay. His defensive shortcomings and lack of speed began to weigh in on the conversation, and while his 8 points in 11 games wasn’t a terrible showing, the fact that as an $11 million player he wasn’t able to hold up his usual season point per game. Speed definitely means fair cash will come his way.
Yes, John Tavares isn’t perfect, and he’s pricey. He also has a no-movement clause meaning that any solution to what to do with him needs to be found at home because he’s not going anywhere unless Toronto explodes heading into the contract trade deadline.
So let’s go back to something Kyle Dubas said last summer that he needs to find a way to put John Tavares in a position where he can be successful. The higher powerplay unit certainly remains a part of that, but it might be time to revisit winger Tavares versus using Tavares’ center. This seems especially important if part of the Leafs’ plan is to move on from one (or both) of William Nylander and Mitch Marner this summer. Does it make sense to use Tavares as a substitute for one and look for center options elsewhere?
The free agency market certainly indicates that the answer is no, as Ryan O’Reilly and Sean Monahan are pretty much the two when it comes to available second line position options. The trade market is hard to predict, but there seem to be enough options like Schiefele, Hayes, and Dubois that are a more viable option than free agency.
Having Tavares as a winger who can slide into position as needed seems to be a potential improvement for the Leafs and seems a better fit for Tavares as he’s been in his career as well, but the number of moving parts involved still means the Leafs need to plan for Tavares being a second-line center and whether that doesn’t It still means the same amount as it did two years ago.
So while he may not be showing up in his offensive output, there is some downside to John Tavares’ game. And the need to get more out of the Leafs’ second line will become very real in the next couple of seasons.
If Tavares resides in the centre, it’s worth asking what are the best options to work with him? When it comes to generating chances, Tavares has been more successful with William Nylander. To make the disk actually go to the network, Mitch Marner. When it comes to playing defensively, Mitch Marner has been a lot better for Tavares than William Nylander, which doesn’t seem surprising at all, but when John Tavares had Kali Garnekrok on his wing, it also helped reduce the chances the second line faced. .
Interestingly, but not surprisingly, Matthews and Tavares succeeded together in 5v5 when given the chance. It’s possible that these numbers are driven from late in the game to push for scoring situations and this will inflate the numbers badly, but it doesn’t erase the idea that Tavares could be an interesting option for Matthews winger if the transactions lead to that being a possibility.
What seems universally true of Tavares is that he needs at least one of his wingers to be able to do the defensive work for him and Tavares seems to have passed the point in his career where he can lift players beyond their skill sets. Tavares, perhaps more than Matthews, needs to have top talent in his line to get the most out of it.
The other thing that seems to have to be talked about with Tavares is the captaincy. I’ve always thought that captaincy is something that needs to be decided by the coach and the people in the room, and if the popular belief is that John Tavares is their man, that’s not a problem. However, all we have to do is public perception and when it comes to a team as loud as the Toronto Maple Leafs, John Tavares may be too forgiving for the market. There also needs to be some consideration given to how important the captaincy is to someone like Auston Matthews who is at a crossroads when it comes to whether or not he stays in Toronto.
I don’t think there should be much discussion about the letter currently on the front of Tavares’ shirt, but there is also something that can be said to take some pressure off him and transfer some responsibility to the players. who desperately wants to be the face of the franchise.
The final thing to consider with Tavares is what will get him into the qualifiers and much like the common theme that ran through this post, it seems to refer to putting Tavares on the Matthews wing and trying to find a second line position. Matthews as the shooter and Tavares as the networked presence model seem to work, and given their locations, that’s something we rarely see. If you look at how often the Oilers move to put McDavid and Draisaitl together when things aren’t working out, the Leafs’ unwillingness to put Tavares with Matthews seems ridiculous.
I know it sounds crazy but maybe there is something to be learned from oilers. Having McDavid and Draisaitl in the middle is great, but what’s also great is having Ryan Nugent-Hopkins who can be a winger, take over the second line position or play as a third line position. This added depth provides a lot of roster flexibility and feels like it could be the Leafs’ key to unlocking John Tavares’ top release at any given time of year.
The thing with Tavares is that he delivers exactly what you’d hope a 32-year-old version of Tavares would do, it’s just a matter of his contract being impossible to honor and whether or not the second line scores accurately is best suited for the Leafs at this point. It’s hard to criticize him, but the frustration with the situation involved also seems perfectly reasonable. It will be interesting to see how they mitigate it in 2023-24.