In our final review of the Washington Capitals’ defense team’s performance during the 2022-23 regular season, we’ll take a look at John Carlson And his contributions on the ice this season.
Carlson, 33, was drafted in the first round (27th overall) in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and made his NHL debut in the 2009-10 season, appearing in 22 games. Carlson played a full season in 2010-11, earning him a spot on the first team as a freshman and fifth in the Calder Trophy race. After the Capitals franchise’s first Stanley Cup in 2018, Carlson signed a hit eight-year extension worth $8 million.
Fast forward to the season, Carlson suffered a dreaded head injury from Brenden Dillon’s slapping shot in a game against the Winnipeg Jets on December 23rd. Carlsson ended up playing just 40 games this season, missing both January and February until returning in late March. . Although he only played in 40 games, Carlson scored nine goals and 20 assists for 29 points. That would be on his way to 59 points in an 82-game full season.
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Performance while playing five to five
We will begin our assessment of Carlson’s play in the most important game situation: playing five against five. Here’s a breakdown of his performance in key metrics this season:
Overall, Carlsson has posted some very strong measures of possession this season. This performance is aided by a heavy offensive zone start, but this is exactly what you would expect from a primary offensive defenseman.
As a running theme for the Caps through the entire season, Carlson’s actual goals in percentage (GF%) lag behind his projected goals in percentage (xGF%). Even with the intense offensive deployments while playing five-on-five and playing with the team’s top offensive talent, it’s clear the Caps need some help scoring a top-six, General Manager Brian McClellan stated in his post-season press conference.
Let’s add some in-depth context to these numbers by looking at Carlson’s possession and shot generation/suppression metrics by month this season:
Most of the defenders on the roster had a bit of a slow start in October, but saw a lot of momentum in November and into December. Carlson definitely falls into that group, and he posted absolutely flashy numbers in November and December, until he suffered a head injury on Dillon’s slap shot.
The Caps were extremely hot in December and their momentum essentially stalled after Carlson dropped out of the lineup at the end of December through mid-March. Obviously, Carlson came back in March after the trade deadline, and you can see the impact of a worse slate with nothing to play for on his overall performance. If Carlson had never been injured, it is very likely that the Caps would have ended up higher in the standings.
Here are the Carlson Goals in Percentage (GF%) and Expected Goals in Percentage (xGF%) by month:
November was very interesting. Carlson posted a very paltry 31.25 GF%, trailing just under 20 percentage points behind xGF%. This is practically a reflection of what we would expect with Carlson’s possession and shot generation metrics we covered earlier.
December is considered real, because Carlson was playing at a high level, indicated by a 59.76 xGF%, but he topped that with a 61.11 xGF%. This means that the hat finished at a relatively high rate when Carlson was on the ice.
I don’t put much stock in his performance in March since he was out for a significant amount of time and only played in four games that month. Having shed some rust, April has bounced back to the levels we saw in October and November (at least in terms of xGF%).
Let’s examine the differences here using goals per sixty (GF/60) and expected goals per sixty (xGF/60) per month:
Interestingly enough, the Caps scored less than expected actual goals per sixty in the scorching hot December while Carlson was on the ice, even though his GF% surpassed xGF% in the previous metric. This meant that the Caps were just a touch more defensively effective that month when Carlson was on the ice as well. We’ll get to that in a moment.
Overall, we see a distinct lack of scoring touch this season from the Caps, as evidenced by Carlson’s GF/60 lagging behind xGF/60 in every month he’s appeared outside of October.
Here’s the flip side of the coin, as we’ll compare Carlson’s goals against every sixty (GA/60) versus expected goals against every sixty (xGA/60):
Overall, November was the only area where I saw full-blown conflicts between GA/60 and xGA/60. Ideally, you might want to see slightly lower averages on both GA/60 and xGA/60, but with that being a skill set. Carlson is effectively focused only on offense, which isn’t much of a surprise.
doubles performance
Here’s a look at Carlson’s four best-used pairs last season:
With two of the most commonly used Carlson pairs consisting of players who are no longer capitals, we’ll be skating around them.
Something somewhat puzzling is that Fehervary and Carlson only get 39.68% of their area starts in the offensive zone. This completely misuses Carlson and deploys him in situations unfavorable to whatever value he brings. I would like to see something closer to what he saw with Rasmus Sandin. If Fehervary and Carlson are reunited as a pairing next season, I would expect a higher offensive starting zone percentage with potential recovery in xGF%.
Player value metrics
First, let’s look at how Carlson has performed in goals above replacement (GAR) and projected goals above replacement (xGAR) this season compared to the rest of his career:
In general, during his career, Carlson was a valuable player. Although his defensive abilities have diminished over the course of his career, his offensive value is still high enough to check him into the $8 million cap. He’s obviously had some difficulties this season with the GAR, but that’s probably more due to his injury than actual performance, as we’ve covered so far.
Here’s the following: Carlson’s averaged plus-minus, which is used to compare a player’s performance in key metrics with his average sixty minutes of play to the league average:
This essentially validates the concept that Carlson is still an outstanding offensive defenseman who has his faults defensively. His offensive RAPM metrics are borderline elite, while he posts defensive metrics below the league average during the Power Double.
Realistically, Carlson just needs to use it properly. His posts need to be protected, and he really shouldn’t be placed in any high leverage defensive area starts, especially late in important games.
isolated effect
This is Carlson’s individual impact when he’s on the ice via HockeyViz:
Effect +18% during an attack of equal strength is effectively elite class. The Caps are much better offensively when Carlson is on the ice. The interesting thing here is that caps aren’t much worse defensively during par power when Carlson is on the ice, only 1% higher xGA/60 when on the ice versus when he’s off the bench.
2023-24 season predictions
The next Washington Capitals head coach needs to use Carlson the right way. He should have approximately a 70% offensive zone starting percentage. He should not play on the penalty kick unless it is absolutely needed. He should continue to use it to great effect in the power play.
Realistically speaking, Carlson is a top-tier offensive defenceman. Players with his skill set are paid more in terms of the player’s defensive hat shots. He just needs to be used in a role where he can contribute offensively while not being exploited defensively. He’s still one of the four best defenders in this league, he’s not a real one player who can contribute at such high levels on both ends of the ice.
By Justin Trudell
Previous reviews over the phone
Martin Fairfare: Reviewing the 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season
Rasmus Sandin: Review of the 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season
Alexander Alexeyev: 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season review
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Reviewing the 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season
Nick Jensen: Reviewing the 2022-23 Washington, D.C. season