Today was the deadline for judging the player’s elected salary. It was a big day for the Leafs because if Ilya Samsonov chooses to go down this route (most arbitration-eligible restricted free agents do), it will likely benefit the Leafs as much or more than it will benefit Samsonov.
Toronto (July 5, 2023) The National Hockey League Players Association announced that 22 players have chosen salary arbitration:
Morgan Barron (Winnipeg Jets)
Will Burgeon (Seattle Kraken)
Noah Keats (Philadelphia Flyers)
Ross Colton (Colorado Avalanche)
Brandon Duhemy (Minnesota Wild)
Vince Dunn (Seattle Kraken)
Cal Flory (Seattle Kraken)
Trent Frederick (Boston Bruins)
Philip Gustafson (Minnesota Wild)
Brett Howden (Vegas Golden Knights)
Tanner Ginot (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Philip Kurachev (Chicago Blackhawks)
Jack McBain (Arizona Coyotes)
Ryan MacLeod (Edmonton Oilers)
Ian Mitchell (Boston Bruins)
Drew O’Connor (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Ilya Samsonov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Brandon Scanlen (New York Rangers)
Jeremy Swaiman (Boston Bruins)
Troy Terry (Anaheim Ducks)
Alexei Toropchenko (St. Louis Blues)
Gabriel Villardi (Winnipeg Jets)The deadline for the Club Elected Second Salary Arbitration Notice is July 6 at 5 PM ET. Salary arbitration sessions will take place from July 20th to August 4th.
As you can see from the press release, no arbitration has been scheduled for either player and it’s unlikely that Samsonov and the Leafs will actually get to that point.
The benefit to Samsonov in this process is that arbitration almost certainly guarantees him a raise. Also, if Samsonov’s ultimate goal is to reach unrestricted free agency sooner rather than later, that puts him in a position to get a one-year deal and a chance to come back with more leverage in the next round, assuming his next season. Go as in the present. If the Leafs want to give him a term, threatening to go and do one might help him, too.
From a Leafs perspective there are benefits to this as well. The key advantage here is that Toronto now has access to its second acquisition window. If a deal cannot be found where the team will take Matt Murray out of their hands, they have the option to buy and that leverage should prevent the Leafs from overpaying to extricate themselves from a bad contract.
There is also an advantage for the Leafs that if they go the full arbitration route with Samsonov, they can try Samsonov for another year to see what they really have with him and to make sure if he is the .919 sv% guard he was last year and if he can handle the increased workload. They will also receive a Joseph Wall appraisal at the same time. Samsonov’s price will likely drop in the middle of the Leafs qualifying bid and Samsonov will be asked in arbitration and that will likely mean making him cheaper than a deal by term.
If Samsonov’s ultimate goal is to secure the term, the Leafs threaten to wait until arbitration can give them leverage in the negotiations and that could be beneficial as well.
Finally, the fact that Samsonov has chosen arbitration means that bid cards are no longer possible for Ilya, not that anyone has speculated.
It is likely that in the coming days we will know when Samsonov will be heard. The Leafs will be required to accept almost any arbitration award. $4.5 million and that’s a potential risk for them. Any potential purchase can come up to 48 hours after Samsonov’s contract has been resolved.
More information about control hearings and acquisition They can be found at capfriendly.