While the NFL Draft has greatly increased in popularity and interest in betting, sportsbooks are divided on how to handle the increased demand — because, in reality, the house doesn’t always win. Some sportsbooks embrace excitement and continue to post many bets, while others have greatly reduced their lists due to the inability to avoid net losses.
“We have customers betting throughout the year. So, if a customer is lucky enough to beat the draft, we’re not going to just take it away,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN, expressing that he bids more than a few hundred props. “We’ll continue to keep pace with him and get better at booking him.”
Let’s not cry so hard for the house. Bettors still have a built-in booking percentage and access to the same information as bettors, if they track it effectively.
“If the sportsbook is great, they can clean up,” one professional bettor and recruiting specialist told ESPN. “The juice is higher for draft mains and the pointers aren’t always fair either. Sometimes bettors think they have the edge but that’s not always the case. You better not miss it.”
This event is unique to odds makers and therefore requires a different approach and mindset. Money-making opportunities exist, just like in every market, but one must first understand the nuances and strategies in order to attack them properly.
different animal
Simply put, the cloud market is very vulnerable and volatile; It really is unlike anything else. With traditional NFL games, the market is narrow and does not involve major changes in odds, unless a major development occurs. For example, the Dallas Cowboys opened as best at home last December over the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. News of an injury to MVP candidate Quarterback Jalen Hurts broke, and the point spread eventually closed around 4.5 points. That was a giant story, and odds makers still took it easy.
However, with an ante bet, the odds can change drastically for a variety of reasons and induce scrambles. Juice on a single prop can swing from +150 to -300 in a single moment. A simple index on the first selected wide receiver might have three different bettors favorites over a two-week period. This happens because the market relies entirely on speculation and reports from members of the media who only aggregate information and opinions from sources while also combating targeted misinformation.
Joey Wiesel, the lead odds maker for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN, while also sharing that his bosses have recently changed their workflow to make it focused solely on the draft, rather than having the entire team keep an eye on all the news on all sports. The traction market is a different animal and should be treated as such.
One common comparison is the NFL’s pre-season. The common denominator is that it entails revealing valuable information, such as playing time for beginners. While this information is certainly necessary and leads to larger moves in the point spread than we see in the regular season, it still involves a football game with a relatively limited number of possible outcomes. However, the draft is a market for what a few employees from the front office, the scouting department, and the coaching staff will decide. Score variances are much wider, when you factor in all players, teams, and offensive and defensive positions, before you factor in the inevitable draw day deals.
new year near me
Every NFL draft has its own narrative, and the betting market reflects that. This may involve uncertainty in the medium, positional depth, or general passion by top teams looking to trade. One must constantly adapt and understand how major storylines will affect selections. There is inevitably a domino effect from free agency, trades and major draft developments in the weeks leading up to the first round.
“As soon as we get into the market early, I feel confident in that market. It’s the volatility in that market that we don’t expect to happen,” Avello said.
Last year we saw quarterbacks Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder and Matt Corral all open with draft positions that mirrored first-round prospects, including two in the top 10. But only one was selected before the third round – a seismic turnaround between collection day and draft day.
This year, we’re starting to see teams lose interest in some of our quarterbacks. It probably won’t be a free drop like it was last year, but it seems fairly clear that we won’t see a QB draft with each of the four first picks, as was thought to be the case just last month. We may only see two boards in the top six picks, as teams constantly change their minds and collect more information. The whole process is fluid.
Connect the dots
Media insiders and draft specialists have very good information. However, they don’t share every core every time they appear on TV or post content. It happens for a variety of reasons. First, they lack enough time to empty the entire bucket. Also, it may not have been fully vetted yet. Or they may keep this information based on a promise they made to a specific source. However, the bettor can connect some dots and derive wisdom based on peripheral information that has already been posted by teams and other draft educators.
“Things keep changing. You’ll get teams that think their overall talent is better than it used to be. Or teams will start thinking alike and expect a player to be 11th and then suddenly be 7th. It’s really tough,” Avello said.
Last year, the Houston Texans threw a curveball by recruiting defensive back Derek Stingley Jr. with the third overall pick. Or did they? Three weeks before the draft, the books offered odds of 100-1 for the LSU product to be drafted in that slot. Around that time, in a media session, Texas head coach Lovie Smith spoke that they were looking to improve the secondary. Cincinnati’s Gardner sauce was seen as the top linebacker but Stingley had an unusual background with an elite pedigree but only played three games.
in his final college season. As more news emerged, Stingley eventually hit -130 in the final days before the draft.
all the time
Draft betting isn’t for everyone. It takes countless hours and a solid understanding of a niche. And like anything related to betting, it also requires discipline. The last thing you want to do is chase steam. Remember, on March 10, CJ Stroud’s odds turned within minutes from +240 to -300 favorite to be the first overall pick. Bryce Young, who had been the favourite, resumed his favorite status a month later and is currently -1400. Life comes at you very quickly if you are reckless and think one thing is easy money.
My next column appears on Tuesday and will feature my official plays for this draft. Nothing is guaranteed, except for how different the market will look from time to time.