Let’s anticipate the 2023 NFL Draft, probabilistically. This is work Predict ESPN Draft Day, our publicly available tool that uses mock drafts of experts, Scouts Inc. scores. , and the team needs to anticipate the picking odds of prospects in the next draft. In other words, we can get a better look at when the best players will be picked and the chance of them being in certain slots.
With just a few days left before Roger Goodell reads First Name Thursday (8 p.m. ET on the ESPN app, ABC and ESPN), let’s break down some key questions about the draft with Today’s Draft Predictor. We’ll look at how long the top midfielders will be available, and who might snatch them up Til Robinson, which wide receivers will still be available in the mid-20s and even some more/less than what the draft-day predictor likes a few days before the event. Let’s dig deeper.
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When will the top four quarterbacks be off the board?
Another way to put this: If you’re a team in need of a QB looking to catch one Bryce Young (Alabama), CJ Stroud (Ohio State), Anthony Richardson (Florida) or Will Levis Kentucky, how far do you need to roll? Well, if the team will be happy any Of the four quarterbacks, he may be able to wait longer than you expect.
If you look at the individual range of draft results for each quarterback, they all seem certain or very likely to be in the top eight. But what if One Whose quarterback is available later is a completely different question. To answer it, we have to simulate the draft a few times and when we did, the results surprised me: There was a 64% chance that the quarterback would still pick the eighth, and it wasn’t until the number 12 pick. We can be over 50% confident he’ll be gone All four midfielders. It was a shock to me!
Those are very interesting numbers for a team like the Tennessee Titans (No. 11), who might consider staying put and drafting a quarterback instead of trading. Or to teams like the Washington Commanders (No. 16) or Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 19), who might like a quarterback.
But if the quarterback slipped, who would it be? Today’s draft forecaster thinks the most likely answer is Levis. Although the form gives the Kentucky quarterback a high chance of being selected at pick #2, #3, and #4 and gives him just over a 50% chance of being available at pick #5, the Levi’s projection is a long right tailer. In other words, the range of its results is broader in that the model predicts a low but real chance of slipping into adolescence.
Given the favorable market for teams trading lower and how much teams are willing to pay to move a quarterback, it makes sense that the Cardinals would strongly consider getting out of the #3 pick. But how far downside can they move if they want to still be able to draft one? The best defenders mentioned above?
A move to No. 6 would be safe, but perhaps they can afford to go down to pick No. 7 (currently held by the Las Vegas Raiders), with at least a 79% chance of any three being available. Anderson would almost certainly be gone by then, but it is likely that one Wilson or Carter would be available. Wilson has a 50% chance of being on the board in seventh place, and Carter’s chance is just under 40%.
What’s the likely landing site for Galen Carter?
Todd McShea expects Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter to be drafted by the Seahawks.
If we think about it logically, it seems pretty safe to assume that at least three quarterbacks will go on the first six draft picks. This means that if the Cardinals move into the seventh, they will need either a fourth quarterback or another defender – for example, Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon – Being selected for one of the contestants listed to get to #7. It’s not a guarantee, but it has the potential to be successful.
What if it’s the Titans who want to trade up to #3 (from #11)? Do the Cardinals still have hope of landing one of those three? The answer is… some. The Draft Day Predictor says there’s a 35% chance that one of the three will be available, and mostly includes the chance that Carter will slip into that spot. The draft day forecast has additional uncertainty built into Carter’s projection given he has not contested misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing stemming from an incident that led to the death of Georgia football player Devin Willock and recruit Chandler Lecroy, and it’s not entirely clear if or how that will affect It’s on seeing his NFL teams.
What are the most likely landing sites? Til Robinson?
If we look at Robinson’s score set, the spot that stands out is No. 10, which is currently held by the Philadelphia Eagles. The draft day prediction gives Texas restarts a greater than 12% chance of being selected in that spot, while no other spot scores in double digits. The Eagles need a running back, and the No. 10 pick has certainly been a popular dummy draft destination for him.
Personally, I find it hard to see that happen. The Eagles are one of the most analytical organizations around, and one of the most important tenets of football analytics is that a running back is a non-excellent position – and it’s hard to use such a high selection in a non-excellent position. However, the model says what it says, and I have great faith in it.
If not number 10, where else? nothing One The point that stands out, but I think the continued high chance of him picking somewhere between numbers 10 and 19, with a 5% or greater chance in each of those positions, is very interesting. So if you want Robinson, the model is confident he probably won’t last into his 20s. In fact, there’s an 80% chance he’ll be gone before the 19th pick.
will Jackson Smith Njegba Be the first wide receiver off the plate, and which area(s) will still be available to the Ravens and Giants?
In the first half, it seems highly likely that Ohio State’s Smith-Njigba will be the first receiver selected. The draft day predictor gives her an 88% chance, with Boston University costume flowers The second highest, at 7%.
If the Baltimore Ravens wanted one of their four 22nd-ranked receivers, at least one (but not Smith-Njigba) would probably be available. The Flowers have roughly a 55% chance of staying on the board at that time, while USC Jordan Addison and TCU’s Quentin Johnston about 75% and 80%, respectively.
The New York Giants will have fewer options if they want a receiver in the 25th position. Flowers will likely be gone by then, with approximately 35% of the snap available. Addison is a 50/50 coin toss to be on the board, and Johnston has almost 60% to be there.
When should we expect to see Hendon Hooker It is being drafted, and who will most likely pick it?
The Tennessee’s Hooker’s wide range of hits is one of the more interesting stories of this draft. He could be a reasonable pick in the middle of the first round or drop back into the late second. If Hooker goes in the first round, his likely landing spot is the #23 pick—currently held by the Minnesota Vikings—with about a 9% chance of being selected there. Pick No. 19 (Buccaneers), 20 (Seattle Seahawks), and No. 22 (Ravens) are all prospects as well, as most first-round back-half picks offer at least a 1% shot to be a hooker due to potential trades.
But the draft day forecast believes Hooker is more likely to continue in the second round than be drafted in the first round, and Hooker could land at #35, owned by the Indianapolis Colts. The model will not assume that any team will do anything 100% of the time, so in the event that the Colts don’t get a quarterback in the fourth or in the first round, they become serious candidates to select Hooker at No. 35.
Hooker’s realistic range extends all the way to pick No. 55 (Detroit Lions). His scheme will be an important one to watch live (yes, draft day forecast updates live during the draft) because teams pick other quarterbacks will greatly affect Hooker’s odds (eg if the Colts get a fourth-place quarterback, pick no 35 wouldn’t be an option for Hooker out of the trade).
Which team is most likely to pick a tight end in the first round?
We can not completely Answer this question using a draft day prediction because it predicts picks, not teams, but we can get pretty close. Answer: Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas lost Dalton Schultz to free agency and is also drafting what appears to be a logical range for either Utah Dalton Kincaid or Notre Dame Michael Meyer. (This is also the beginning of the Georgia domain Darnell Washington.) All in all, the draft day predictor says there is a 23% chance of picking a tight end at #26 pick.
In what order will the top four offensive linemen be selected?
This is the most likely arrangement: Northwestern’s Peter SkowronskyOhio Paris Johnson Jr.Georgia Broderick JonesTennessee Darnell Wright. This exact thing has a 22% chance of happening, far ahead of the next most likely option, which flips Johnson and Jones (14% chance).
The Draft Day indicator is optimistic regarding Skowronski’s chances at the top among offensive linemen (71%). This is an interesting contrast to Caesars Sportsbook which has him +175 as the first offensive lineman to be selected as of Monday.
Which fringe player can sneak into the first round?
The thing that surprised me was the Alabama comeback Jahmir Gibbs, who has approximately a 40% chance of being selected in the first round. There has been a lot of talk about Bijan Robinson being a prospect two Running backs in the first round fly under the radar.
Two forwards who could make their way to the first round are Northwestern Adetomiwa Adebawore and Kansas State Felix Anodic-Ozuma, each with a shot of about 30%. Another player who surprised me was the Clemson quarterback Trenton Simpsonwho has about a 20% chance of sneaking into the first round.
On the flip side, does it look like the first person with the consensus might get out of it? TCU’s Quentin Johnston, who has a 30% chance of slipping into Day Two.
What are some overs/unders that stand out based on Prediction Day Draft?
As of Monday afternoon, here are a few based on the odds in Caesars Sportsbook.
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Michael Meyer, OVER 23.5 (-110): The draft day prediction gives Meyer just under an 80% chance of staying on the board at the #24 pick.
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Devon Witherspoon, over 6.5 (-125): That’s a good value, even down to -125, with a draft day forecaster believing there’s an 80% chance of picking No. 7 or later. There are only so many players that could be a top six pick, and it seems likely that Witherspoon was kicked out of that group.
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Z. Flowers, <22.5 (+130): This looks like a right line...if the juice is even on both sides. With just over a 50% chance of being picked before pick #23, the draft-day predictor would like flowers for less than that price.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, under 12.5 (+270): Without the juice, the line makes sense here, according to a draft-day indicator. It gives a 45% shot that Smith-Njigba went before pick #13, so at +270, that’s valuable.
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Paris Johnson Jr., over 9.5 (-110): The draft day forecaster thinks there’s more than a 90% chance Johnson will still pick the 10th overall, so he’d be happy to go -110.
ESPN Analytics’ Brian Burke contributed to this story.