When a good player is offered on the cheap it probably takes a minute or two to determine exactly who has hit the open market. Filip Zadina is making a big bet on himself that he can outpace his NHL resume so far, and that’s really impressive. While there are plenty of reasons to be overly excited about a 23-year-old former sixth overall pick hitting the market and trying to live up to the Billings sixth overall, there’s also something to be said for a career best year of 74 games, 10 goals and 24 points in four attempts. Still, Zadina and a major focus when summer hockey news slows down dramatically, so let’s see if he’s a good fit.
The past three years certainly haven’t been kind to Zadina and until proven otherwise, it’s important he establishes his place. Zadina’s offensive numbers should be much higher than his defensive numbers because no one is looking to become a 200-foot player. He entered winning the points and the points didn’t come. He’s been throwing and blocking more shots than you would expect and I think that speaks to his willingness to do what it takes to stay in the lineup, but it’s possible that if his performance improves, those numbers will drop or the less consistent he’ll be. His ice time has been decreasing over the past two seasons, and Zadina’s ice time with his top six teammates appears to be non-existent. His most frequent teammates are Joe Felino, Pius Sutter, and Oscar Sundqvist, so he let two other Red Wings players walk to free agency and another former first-round pick the Red Wings have seen fade so far in his career. No one is going to give him a spot on their top line to see what he can do, but it’s possible the Leafs are on their way to owning a third line with some offensive talent that can propel Zadina beyond what he’s displayed so far. This is still a big if.
There’s also something to be said for the Maple Leafs already having a low-cost project winger to work with. It’s younger and still more anonymous than Zadina, but it also comes at a cheaper price point and doesn’t require compromises if things don’t work out. The depth is great, but this can unnecessarily hinder the player. Zadina’s allure over Robertson could come down to Zadina’s price, if the Leafs intend to transfer Robertson, or just Zadina’s allure at the top of draft percentages and “I’ll bet myself” attitude put him on the radar.
In fact, he made some improvements to his game (even though he missed most of the season). Get to the middle of the ice more, create better chances and better passing. Still not a factor outside of the attack zone, but something to work with. pic.twitter.com/iwQy1LMMU2
– Corey Sznyder (ShutdownLine) July 6, 2023
On a microstate level, Zadina is a mixed bag and in some ways points to something promising. It does a lot of things right and gets some results, but it hasn’t been given the support team to achieve what it aspires to do. Conflict with zone entries is probably the biggest concern from the Leafs’ perspective because possession and control of the Pirates has been king in Toronto and is unlikely to change. The limitations of his running back in the defensive zone are surprising, but he’s fared better when it came to getting out.
Certainly the story about Zadina’s PDO says there is room for improvement in a new situation:
season | on ice SH% | on ice SV% | PDO |
2018 2019 | 2.86 | 92.13 | 0.95 |
2019-2020 | 7.14 | 92.19 | 0.993 |
20202021 | 7.32 | 94.12 | 1,014 |
20212022 | 7.13 | 90.48 | 0.976 |
20222023 | 4.49 | 93.41 | 0.979 |
Oddly enough, he was privy to some outstanding on-ice save percentage numbers while in Detroit and that makes the on-ice shooting percentage and PDO numbers even more clear that there could be some offense unlocked in a new situation. Last season, Zadina achieved a solo shooting percentage of 6%, its best in three years.
When it comes to whether Zadina is right for the sheets, there are a few intangibles and tangibles to consider.
With the Leafs committing to Tyler Bertuzzi as their biggest free signing, it likely matters what he thinks of his former teammate from Detroit and it’s entirely possible that Zadina isn’t as interested in the Leafs because of Bertuzzi.
There is a potential benefit of having a veteran Czech player with Zadina and David Kampf could be that player. There are obviously a number of veteran Czech players around the league, but that could be a factor.
The role and market pressure will be factors for Zadina. He might prefer to be able to play a bigger role on a lottery-related team than fight for any time over a competitor. He might prefer playing his game in a market that won’t see 30 microphones thrown in his face after every questionable game.
From the Leafs’ perspective, Zadina might be too much of a project to take on when there are already a number of fresh faces, a hot-seat coach, and a commitment to being a tougher team to play against.
Like most things, it will also come down to money. Zadina has already left $4.5 million on the table and multiple teams are rumored to be interested in him. It probably doesn’t indicate he’s a major league player, but instead I imagine him hovering above his $1.15 million burialable contract amount, with Zadina preferring teams to falter a bit if he gets fired.
While it’s hard to see Zadina as a pressing need or perfect fit for the Leafs, it’s hard to ignore his up-and-coming side and the kind of player good teams should be willing to take chances with, especially as their potential pool becomes increasingly shallow.
More than the Robertson comparison above, the thing I’d like to consider is whether it was worth losing out on a potential steal in Filip Zadina because you wanted to keep a spot on the list for Sam Lafferty.
data source Hockey evolutionAnd The natural stats trickAnd All three regions.