Shortly after PPR’s 2023 post-NFL draft fantasy football rankings were published, I compiled a list of players who have a lead but have questions regarding their fantasy prospects.
These players are capable of great seasons due to their attributes, the suitability of their scheme and their potential. The questions stem from various factors, including expected weekly volume and offensive spread. The mix of potential and uncertainty is why I consider them to be fantasy X factors this season.
There are some big names below, too. Guys you might not normally put in an X Factor conversation. But as you’ll see below, I have my reasons for including them.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert has a top five center if we’ve seen a Chargers offense – under the guidance of new coordinator Kellen Moore – that caters to the cutting-edge physical tools of a quarterback. At 22, playing in a system built on rhythm throws from the pocket, Herbert finished 15th among QBs with 16.5 fantasy points per game after finishing second the previous season. He only carried the ball on 27 designed rushes last season. With the addition of explosive rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston to round out LA’s virtuoso pool of tackle talent, Moore could boost Herbert’s fantasy output here. Hit the vertical in the passing game, use action concepts and use Herbert on choreographed rushes into the low red zone.
Naji Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harris is a sizeable ball mill who will carry the ball behind a Pittsburgh offensive front who has added promotions through free agency and the draft. This is a positive for the back who should see the 250 plus load again. But where did Harris’ target volume go? Last season, he marked 53 goals, down from 94 in 2021. He averaged just 13.1 PPR points per game (RB19). He needs more looks as a receiver to jump out of the middle-level RB2 ranks in PPR formats.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s about moving on from Tom Brady here. And we can all see it. With Brady, Evans was a three-level target in the passing game. Balls fade out of numbers. median in the incisors. Three-step concepts too. Evans produced eight double-digit PPR games last season and finished as the WR17. With Evans now set to catch passes from Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, he currently sits at WR29 in my rank. Its positive fantasy side is not what it used to be and may be limited to the WR3 – with a reduced track tree.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
I changed my fantasy philosophy about quarterbacks, and targeted players with more mobility. That’s also why I’m writing here about Rodgers, because we know he’s set to be produced at Kamar in New York. We can point to the smooth transition in coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s system, the Jets’ receiving talent, led by Garrett Wilson, who I think is primed for his breakout year, and Rodgers’ top attributes as a baseman. But with the low rushing totals Rodgers can expect to score at this point in his career (94 rushing yards last season), let’s see if the veteran throws with enough size and production to jump into the QB1 debate this season.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
We all know the drill with rookie tight ends. But it was more about Kincaid deploying the Bills explosive offense with Josh Allen throwing the ball. Look for more TE kits, with Kincaid seeing targets from wide apertures or alignments. He could be a stretcher for Allen against the split safety covers Buffalo will see this season, and I think Kincaid could also be deployed as an X receiver back (which includes red zone shots). Even with Dawson Knox slated to be the Bills’ No. 1 tight end this season, Kincaid’s formation flexibility creates intrigue here, as the rookie has the attributes of running a path tree with wide receivers.
Khalil Herbert, right linebacker, Chicago Bears
Herbert is a powerful professional fullback. Decisive with the ball. good vision. The contact balance also appears here. Herbert averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season, while also recording 22 rushes of 10 yards or more. But even with David Montgomery moving to Detroit, we’ll have to see if Herbert can generate enough situational rush, as well as influence his passing game, in Chicago’s now crowded backroom. D’Onta Foreman has downhill juice at the goal line, Travis Homer can catch the ball from the backfield, and freshman Roschon Johnson is a solid runner who can show up quickly this season. Herbert’s fit into the Bears’ heavy offense creates RB2 potential in the fantasy. But competition for Chicago’s carry, combined with limited receiving numbers (23 career receptions), may force Herbert to compromise on the flex, match-based option this season.
Brandyn Cox, WR, Dallas Cowboys
My WR35 in the rankings, Cooks has the ability to play explosively as a vertical stretch target, with the dynamic attributes that are produced after the catch. It’s a fast accelerator in space right now. And the suitability program works with the Cowboys, where chefs can win a second round against CeeDee Lamb. In the 13 games last season played in Houston’s sub-par offense, Chefs averaged 11.2 PPR per game, a number that could jump in Dallas with a quarterback promotion, especially if the veteran wide receiver sees more goals from Dak Prescott at center scoring. Over the past two seasons with the Texans, Chefs has seen a total of 20 goals for the red zone. Raise that number, plus play the striped shot in Mike McCarthy’s offense, and the Chiefs can surprise this season.
Devon Aschan, right linebacker, Miami Dolphins
I’m a collaborator with Ashan’s pro team with Miami and coach Mike McDaniel. Home run speed. side gigs. receive adjectives. Achane can be used as an action/action player to see the ball during sweeps, screens and reversals. Posting a passing game is also important here. And do not sleep on his ability to push the ocean as a runner. He can go. But with Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert on Miami’s roster, are there enough offensive touches here for the rookie to make a consistent fantasy role in ’22? The skill set works. But, as is always the case in fiction, it comes down to size.