It’s easy to become overwhelmed with the huge number of advanced stats and metrics available to wide receivers. So, let’s keep it simple and think of it this way: Receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns and fantasy points come from…goals. Goals — and airfields — are essential components when trying to pitch a large-scale production from one season to the next.
Air yards track the distance a football travels through the air from the line of scrimmage to the intended receiver, complete or incomplete and not including yardage after catch, providing a more comprehensive picture of a player’s potential impact beyond traditional stats. Looking at the per-game averages for a wide receiver helps assess the future opportunity.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at 10 underrated wides in favorable situations with teams that have a high number of goals cleared or air yards available; Thus, these players have the ability to exceed fantasy expectations and outperform the average draft draft. Add them to your Watch List!
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Available WR targets: 109 (8th most)
Available air arenas: 1,646 (at most)
Evans is the only receiver in NFL history to start a career with nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Evans averaged a solid 15 fantasy points per game last season (T14 in PPR), but he also put up a dismal 1.75 yards per touchdown with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Now, with Baker Mayfield or perhaps Kyle Trask under center, fantasy directors are fading Evans (currently being drafted as WR24). This is a mistake. The Buccaneers are still expected to make nearly 600 pass attempts, and Evans and Chris Goodwin, another receiver you shouldn’t overlook, are expected to hit 125 each. Evans happened to have the third most depth scoring last season, while Mayfield was sixth in deep ball accuracy. It’s also worth noting that Evans only trails Jerry Rice for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons at any point in his career (11). Evans can be seen as a low-profile WR2 with upside to outperforming his expectations.
Nico Collins, Houston Tx
Available WR targets: 210 (most)
Available air arenas: 2,860 (most)
Collins is the only Texan returning from the WR group last season and will have a new quarterback (CJ Stroud) looking his way in 2023. Collins will also have a new offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik, who takes over after spending the previous six seasons with The San Francisco 49ers, most recently as their pass game coordinator. There’s reason for optimism for Collins, who averaged 9.0 goals and 12.1 fantasy points per game from Weeks 10 to 13 last season in what was a rotten Texans offense. Reportedly a favorite target of Stroud at casual practices, Slowik had Collins study Julio Jones’ highlights to try and emulate his playing style in the new scheme, which incorporates elements of the Kyle Shanahan system. Given his average position and positive early reports, Collins could become a flexible and promising option in 2023.
Jacoby Myers, Las Vegas Raiders
Available WR targets: 94 (at most 16)
Available air arenas: 2,201 (third largest)
After spending the first four years of his career with the Patriots, Myers signed a three-year, $33 million contract extension with the Raiders in the off-season. He’s already familiar with coach Josh McDaniels’ offensive schema from his days in New England, and O’Choice coordinator Mick Lombardi was the wide receivers coach with the Pats from 2020 to 2021. Playing primarily out of the hole (70%), Myers averaged 6.8 goals per game in Last season, I caught 66.7% of those passes. Myers has averaged a solid 11.8 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons, and with Davante Adams drawing most of the defensive interest, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can count on Myers as a reliable secondary target. Myers’ fantasy projection puts him on the resilient radar, and he has the opportunity to exceed expectations if Raiders find themselves in negative game scenarios.
Marquis Brown, Arizona Cardinals
Available WR targets: 165 (third largest)
Available air arenas: 1,847 (the largest number)
Don’t let the Cardinals’ quarterback position scare you away from the Browns. Believe me, this is wrong. With DeAndre Hopkins out of the picture, Brown is signing on as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver. Brown is being drafted as a WR30 in our live drafts and is expected to hit over 120 targets. It’s considered a high-end flex option, but let me tell you, the WR2 finish is within reach. The Browns had a great start last season while Hopkins was suspended for six games, averaging 10.7 goals and 18.3 fantasy points. The Browns’ season was derailed by a foot injury that caused him to miss five games, and he didn’t look very healthy upon his return. Even with Kyler Murray recovering from ACL surgery and likely to miss games, the Browns should be heavily targeted by anyone below center.
Jaden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Available WR targets: 184 (second largest number)
Available air arenas: 2,201 (third largest)
Christian Watson scored seven goals last season, all of which came during a five-week span from mid-November to early December, and accumulated 611 yards, which was fifth-best among rookies. Watson is currently the WR19 in our live drafts, but there are other wide range packs you should keep an eye on as well. Green Bay needed a playmaker who could excel in the open spaces and draft one stellar one on Reed in the second round. The receiving room is wide open behind Watson, and Reed is expected to have nearly as many targets as sophomore Romeo Doubs. As an opening receiver, Reed’s agility and adaptability should make him a reliable option on crucial touchdown runs on Jordan Love’s team. Keep in mind that the Packers have had some good luck with second round receivers, including Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams. Green Bay has a decent schedule, and I’d rather target Reed than Doubs as a stock receiver near the end of fantasy drafts.
Jojo Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots
Available WR targets: 153 (fourth largest number)
Available air arenas: 1,753 (sixth most)
Smith-Schuster didn’t put up the numbers last season with the Chiefs that fantasy managers had projected. He caught 78 of 101 targets for 933 yards but finished with only three touchdowns. Smith-Schuster’s arrival in New England, along with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, should open the door for quarterback Mack Jones, who fell back a lot last season after a promising rookie season. It presumably helps Jones that O’Brien is familiar with Josh McDaniels’ former Patriots offensive coordinator and University of Alabama playbook. Based on target quota, Smith-Schuster is expected to be the Patriots’ No. 1 receiver, but shockingly he’s the only WR45 in our live drafts. Smith-Schuster heralds that the Patriots didn’t select a wide receiver until the sixth round of the April draft. Smith Schuster has good hands and is excellent at putting together yards after catch. He would collect a lot of New England receptions.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Available WR targets: 109 (at most 9)
Available air arenas: 1,632 (8th)
London averaged 8.6 goals and 76.2 yards receiving over the last six games of his rookie season; All in all, he hit a goal on 32% of his runs and averaged a solid 1.53 fantasy points per goal. London is projected to aim for 119 targets this season and is currently WR31 in our Live Directions Draft. Coach Arthur Smith built a friendly attack in the middle, and London’s chemistry with Desmond Reader was evident. The Falcons have an excellent run by the committee led by #8 overall pick Bijan Robinson, a great offensive lineman and tight end in Kyle Bates who will be looking to bounce back from his sophomore season. London doesn’t have any viable wide receivers behind him and he’s expected – and should – to lead the Falcons in goals, boosting his fantasy value. London is one of the Falcons’ top makers and is seen as a flexible option in fantasy, but could easily end up as a WR2 in 2023.
DJ Shark, Carolina Panthers
Available WR targets: 145 (5th most)
Available air arenas: 1,987 (fourth most)
Chark caught just 30 passes for 502 yards and three touchdowns last season, but he ranked fourth with an average depth of goal with 15.4 yards and seventh with 16.7 yards per reception. Chark was selected as the WR46 in live drafts, but is expected to lead the Panthers in goals this season. Although Shark has missed 19 games over the past two seasons, Adam Thielen, 32, who is expected to score the second most goals for Carolina, also has a history of injuries. Shark could be productive with rookie quarterback Bryce Young under center. Also, new coach Frank Reich plans to expand Chark’s path tree so that he is more than just a vertical threat. The veteran broad is the resilient radar firmly with the upside.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Available WR targets: 107 (11th most)
Available air arenas: 1,163 (15th most)
The Vikings selected Addison #23 overall to complement superstar Justin Jefferson and help fill the void left by Thelin’s departure. Playing for one of the most traffic offenses in the league – and with Thielen’s 107 goals cleared – Addison has a clear path to success. Given the defensive focus Jefferson will draw on the opposite side, Addison will likely see one cover. The rookie is a technician whose physicality and path allow him to separate from defenders. He’s currently WR43 in our live drafts and still has to compete with KJ Osborn in #2 assignments, but Addison is the favorite to get the role and should outpace his ADP.
Tony Cadarius, Kansas City Chiefs
Available WR targets: 135 (sixth at most)
Available air arenas: 1,102 (16th most)
The Chiefs hope Toney will turn into a star in 2023, but the fantasy executives aren’t on board yet, and are currently drafting him as a WR44. Patrick Mahomes has spoken highly of Tunney, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that the Chiefs think Tunney could be a top-notch receiver. Injuries were the main issue, as Tony was limited to just 19 regular season games in his three NFL seasons. But the top receiver role – off tight end Travis Kelsey – is up for grabs, and if Tony can stay healthy, he’s shown flashes and made use of Mahomes as the starting quarterback. Tony has averaged 1.1 fantasy points per goal in his career and should have no problem exceeding his expectations.