Preparing for the upcoming fantasy football season requires asking tough questions.
Which NFL teams are set up for success? What teams are destined to struggle? Where can fantasy directors mine for latent fantasy talent? What brand-name stars can really disappoint?
Throughout the month of June, I will be auditing each NFL division and highlighting the most pressing fantasy question facing each team. Next: AFC South.
Click on the imaginary questions by division:
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NFC North
What does Devin Singletary’s return to Houston mean for fictional value Dameon Pierce?
Singletary might not be an out-of-this-world talent, but he’s capable of a lot. The FAU product has “engine” his way to consecutive top 25 fantasy finishes, clearing 1,000 scrimmage yards and managing 13 touches per game over the past two years in Buffalo. His presence would certainly take away from Pearce’s chances, which is problematic for a player whose fantasy stock is largely based on size. It’s not that Pierce isn’t a talented runner; It’s just that he plays an offense he can rarely be expected to be in a scoring position.
Of the 38 RBs who handled the rock at least 150 times last season, Pierce ranks 36th in fantasy points per touch (before only Brian Robinson Jr. and Donta Furman). In addition, only 37.2% of his touches occurred in the red, which clearly capped his bullish trend. The current over/under total in regular season wins for Houston is 5.5, according to Caesars Sportsbook. Even if coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik ramps up the team’s rebuild and posts seven spots, it’s unlikely there will be enough production to propel Pierce into the top 15 producers at the position.
Remove: Pierce is a mid-to-low RB2 group (RB20 group) with Singletary in the mix.
Is quarterback Anthony Richardson overrated or undervalued in drafting formulas?
In the end, Richardson’s fictional value depends on how much the director appreciates his talents. It’s no secret that a rookie’s greatest imaginary asset is in his legs. The Florida product is an actual marvel as it averaged the highest yards per rush (6.4) among FBS QBs last season. It’s a work in progress, with only 13 career starts under his belt. The gamble is whether Shane Station – who has been Jalen Hurts’ offensive coordinator for the past two years in Philadelphia – can unleash Richardson’s full potential.
Personally, I believe in the Colts coach and QB group, but I’m not sure everything will work out right away. That’s why I’ve ranked Richardson outside of my top 14 players at the position. It takes time to develop, and the Colts are projected to win just seven games in 2023. Teams fell behind 66.1% of the time when they fell behind (52.3% when leading) in 2022, so a bad Colts team could, in theory, put up fantasy numbers. And as mentioned earlier, there is no denying the cheat code found in Richardson’s Navigation.
Remove: Richardson offers a wide range of results. Rather than relying on the rookie to produce a QB1, consider the 21-year-old’s hide and flow. He thinks it’ll be especially useful in Weeks 5 and 13 when facing off against the Titans (and there are many popular names to begin with).
Imaginary discussion
How do you handle Anthony Richardson’s standard draft tackles (one starting QB) this year?
– Liz Loza (@LizLoza_FF) June 1, 2023
Which Jaguars wide receiver would be more valuable to the imagination: Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley?
This is a classic “floor vs. ceiling” debate.
Kirk posted a career high stat line of 84-1108-8 in his first year as a Jaguar. The former Cardinal dominated the hole (494 hole shots, WR3), hitting 7.8 goals per game. Even with those numbers, Kirk’s production has captured only three of the eight top fantasy performances by a Jacksonville pass collector (as are Z. Jones and Evan Ingram’s others). This suggests that there is a lot of juice elsewhere in this crime… which is where Ridley plays a role.
Ridley was WR4 overall in 2020 based on PPG (18.8). Over 80% of his fantasy output has come on perimeter targets. Therefore, he is unlikely to compete with Kirk for looks. Instead, the former Falcon is expected to take over Jones’ role on offense. Jones averaged 7.6 catches per contest, converting 68% of his chances for 82 grabs and 823 yards. When healthy, Ridley averages yardage per goal over 9.0 (Jones managed 6.8 YPT in 2022). Additionally, Ridley’s aDOT career is 21% more than Kirk’s. Accordingly, its upside – as it relates to the whole lot – is huge.
Remove: Kirk numbers to deliver a stable production of the WR3. Ridley offers more growth potential, though, and can help fantasy managers as he turns into form down the stretch.
Besides RB Derrick Henry, who is the Titans player offering the most fantasy value in 2023?
The Titans were 29th in pass attempts and 28th in passing yards last season. With so little atmospheric production, fantasy options are clearly in short supply. Treylon Burks is being groomed to lead the Corps of the future and is expected to see 95 goals. This puts it in the WR40’s range with an abundance of similarly uninspired options.
On the other hand, Chigoziem Okonkwo has the tools and opportunity to produce a smaller group of players in the more volatile tight end mode. Okonkwo has already proven his ability to earn elite-level looks for the position, being targeted on over 29% of his routes (behind only Kyle Pitts among TEs and ahead of Mark Andrews). He is also likely to remain more efficient with Ryan Tannehill under centre. The QB1 of the Titans was 17th in aDOT and 23rd in percentage of passes over 20 yards last season, which set up nicely for Okonkwo, who managed an average depth of goal of 7.6 yards (compared to Burks’ 12.2 ).
Remove: Okonkwo is unlikely to post consistent fantasy numbers. However, his physical skills and contested catching ability merited him to the All-Star roster. Consider him a top 17 prospect with a top 12 finisher.
Follow Liz on Twitter: @tweet