A player’s age and experience can have a huge say in their fantasy success prospects.
As we gain experience playing fantasy football, we become more familiar with player aging curves and their impact on statistical output. This knowledge can be helpful, as knowing performance patterns can guide you toward making better draft decisions, trade proposals and in-season captures. At the same time, this knowledge can be a pitfall, as today’s assumptions about player aging curves may not remain tomorrow’s realities, and worse, even the best of us can fall prey to gimmicky claims about gamer aging trends.
Surely if you’ve played this game for any length of time, you’ve heard the theory that joggers fall off a statistical cliff once they celebrate their 30th birthday? Or maybe you’ve been told that wide receivers’ breakout seasons occur during their third year?
This statement is not meant to mean that either theory is completely wrong. The point is that we must constantly assess, review and revise our player aging curves to ensure that these trends have not changed, and we must bear in mind that there is no ‘one size fits all’ age-related label. After all, the game has changed dramatically in recent seasons – they are known to be more protective of their quarterbacks nowadays, and therefore more passable than they were 15 years ago. Plus, it’s seen a slight uptick in quarterback mobility over the past half-decade or so – so it makes sense that player aging trends would change over time.
To get a sense of where we are today, I collected data for the top 100 players who made their debuts since the merger (1970 season) in each of the four skill positions, as well as the top 25 players in each debuting position since then. 2000 and 2010, and then analyzed based on their age in the given season as well as their years of league experience. The purpose of these sample sizes is to select effective fantasy football elites, for whom these fast food items are most valuable. Here are the main points, in order of importance in my opinion.
Tight ends enjoy a huge High in NFL Year No. 2
Notable breakthroughs at the end of the second year: Antonio Gates (2004), Jimmy Graham (2011), Rob Gronkowski (2011), Travis Kelsey (2014), George Keitel (2018)
Tight ends for 2023: Greg Dolch, Isaiah Leakley, Trey McBride, Chigosim Okonkwo, Jelani Woods
There is no greater pattern of annual growth — across any of the four skill positions, three data subsets (since merger, 2020 or 2010), regardless of trends by age or years in the league — than the second-tight end of the year. Among those who made their first appearances since 2000, sophomore tight ends have seen a 98.5% increase in PPR fantasy points per game over their rookie season productions. The group then maintained that average through its seventh NFL season and did not see a significant statistical decline until around age 30.
It’s a logical conclusion, given both the learning curve involved in the position at the NFL level and the different ways college teams often use the position. Many college tight ends enter the NFL as either experienced receivers with limited blocking skills, or elite blockers without much of a future as pass catchers, and NFL teams need both from this position. This is why Kyle Bates has been one of the most extraordinary tight ends, due to his strength in both. Of course, Bates had one of the most disappointing sophomore finishes in history last season, as his production per game dropped by a fantasy 2.8 points for the PPR. But he has one of the most unusual stories that seem to us in his early career.
Any of the five tight sophomore ends above can similarly benefit from the freshman year experience. Dulcich and Woods are two of the people who fit the “have the receiving chops but didn’t initially have the blocking” description, and it could mean either of them are ready to take a big step forward in 2023.
Running declines sharply at the age of 29, and sometimes earlier
Noticeable declines at age 28 or 29: Shawn Alexander (2005, 29 years old), Arianne Foster (2015, 29 years old), Chris Johnson (2014, 29 years old), Marshawn Lynch (2015, 29 years old), Deuce McAllister (2007, 29 years old)
Notable running backs in 2023 aged 28: James Conner, Dalvin Cook, Austin Eckler, Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Jamal Williams
2023 Age – 29 years old Running Back: Derek Henry
Although the statistical trend is less dramatic than the previous entry, this It may be the most important new lesson for fantasy directors. Their appearances seem to have declined sharply closer to their 30th birthdays.
Among those who debuted since 2000, Racers experienced a 25.2% decrease in PPR points per game, and 37.0% in total PPR points scored, from ages 28 to 29. Only 11 running backs have reached the ages of 28 and 29 seasons since 2010 and the group has seen a 16.8% drop in PPR points per game from ages 26 to 27, down 8.4% from 27 to 28 and a 15.3% drop from 28 to 29.
In fact, contestants get fewer opportunities as they get closer to 30. Last season, only 13.8% of all touchdowns were compiled by running backs by those 28 or older, while 8.4% came from those 29 or older. This is a marked downgrade from the numbers of 16.4% and 13.7% collected by the same groups 10 seasons ago (in 2012).
an opportunity It had to do with the shrinking length of running backs’ careers, as it did with the size of these players’ workloads in their younger days. The NFL’s shift to a thrift store approach to running backs has been well documented. There have only been 14 RBs selected in the first round of the NFL Draft over the past 10 seasons (from 2014 to 2023), after 27 RBs were selected in the 10 drafts prior to 2013 and 31 in the 10 prior to 2003. There is less incentive For teams to invest in aging racers, given the potential increased cost. The firing of Dalvin Cook in early June was a good example of this, as he would have earned more than $14 million in each of the next three seasons, but he has 1,503 career touches, 83% of which came in just the past four years.
This is why some of the above names call for extreme caution in the ranger and breed associations. In addition to the wear factor of this Season, they are desperate to produce in 2023 in order to secure a similar role in 2024. Ekeler in particular may be in the most difficult situation. He has the raw ability to perform after this season at the age of 28, but he’s headed to free agency at the end of the year. He’s a guaranteed first rounder for the recast leagues, but this could be the last great opportunity to trade him in a dynasty or guard.
Meanwhile, Henry enters 2023 as a high-risk/reward selection. He has the third most career touches among linebackers (1,877), led the league in three of the past four years and missed nine games to close out 2021 with a broken foot.
QBs see their scrambling ability decline between the ages of 27 and 29
Notable ages between 27 and 29 recessions: Teddy Bridgewater (2021, 28 years old), Colin Kaepernick (2015, 27 years old), Cam Newton (2016, 27 years old and 2018, 29 years old), Russell Wilson (2016, 27 years old and 2018, 29 years old)
2023 ages 27 to 29 Notable quarterbacks: Josh Allen (27), Patrick Mahomes (28), Deshaun Watson (28)
This isn’t a hard rule, as you can be affected by a quarterback’s specific workload at early ages, but it’s worth noting that among those who made their first appearances since 2000, 27-year-old quarterbacks have seen a 25.7% drop in their fantasy rushing production. compared to their season of 26. In addition, rushing production per game in age seasons 27, 28, and 29 were within 0.23 points of each other, indicating apparent stability of the group’s scrambling skills. The group debuting since 2010 showed a similar, though not as severe, decline as the 27-year-olds (14.2%) while it ranged within 0.13 points per game from the 27- to 29-year-olds.
This isn’t to say that Allen, Mahomes, or Watson are destined to experience a severe decline in rushing ability, especially since Allen and Mahomes each scored the most fantasy points on rushing play in a single season in their careers in 2022. It’s a more cautionary angle. as there will Come to a point when everyone slows down a bit and eventually tries fewer lunges. Understand that when you’re drafting a mobile quarterback, you want to target those who are younger, typically 23-25 years old. This group averaged 2.5 accelerated fantasy points per game, easily the most productive three-year period in varsity.
Mobile (or potentially mobile) quarterbacks who fit the 23-25 demographic entering 2023 include Justin Fields (24), Justin Herbert (24), Jalen Hurts (25), Trevor Lawrence (24), and Toa Tagovailoa ( 25).
Wide receivers are seeing their biggest leaps in Years 2 and 5
Notable Breakthroughs in Receivers in Year Two: Plaxico Burress (2001), Randall Cobb (2012), Alshon Jeffery (2013), Chad Johnson (2002), Brandon Marshall (2007), Allen Robinson II (2015)
2023 Breakthrough Receiver Candidates at the Sophomore Level: Trillon Burks, Jahan Dotson, Sky Moore, George Pickens, Jameson Williams
Notable Receivers for 2023 at the Year 5 Level: AJ Brown, Marquis Brown, Deontay Johnson, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalfe, Hunter Renfro, Debo Samuel
Just as with tight ends, wide receivers parlay their rookie experience into a big sophomore raise. Among the group that debuted since 2000, sophomore receivers saw a whopping 43.0% increase in average PPR points per game, and those who debuted since 2010 improved by 45.0%.
Taking it a step further, the game’s most notable wide receivers typically hit their peak during their fifth NFL seasons, with that group seeing a 24.5% increase over year No. 4, the second largest annual boost. This group averaged 17.5 PPR points per game, the highest of any experience level.
We’ve seen many rookie wide receivers in recent seasons, but history shows that it can take time for a wide receiver to fully adjust to the NFL’s rules of play and their team’s trajectory tree. Five of the above six second-year penetration wide receivers were selected in either the first or second round of the NFL Draft, and the sixth (Marshall) was a fourth-round pick, underlining the raw talent seen in their time of NFL arrival. Therefore, it is foolish to write off a wide receiver who was disappointed in his rookie season.
That’s why Chris Olaf, who blasted decently with a 198.2 PPR last season, is a compelling candidate to take a big step forward in 2023, especially with a stronger-armed quarterback in Derek Carr. Olave, Dotson, and Pickens are likely popular breakout picks this season, and for good reason.
Meanwhile, while none of the aforementioned fifth-year receivers stands out as a clear favorite for the career year in 2023. History strengthens the case for paying extra money to get any of them, and Metcalf is a personal favorite for taking such a step forward. Geno Smith proved to be a capable starting quarterback and Metcalf absorbed a healthy 24% target share over the last five weeks of last season, separating himself from Tyler Lockett.