ESPN Fantasy Analysts provides fantasy football draft strategy and overviews for each major position. Be sure to check them all out: Quarterback | running backwards | wide receiver | tight end
The dust has settled on the NFL Draft, and OTA stations and junior camps are closing in. Excitement about the upcoming season is in the air, so let’s set the stage for the final tight end situation in fantasy football.
Tight ends can be a polarizing topic in fantasy football drafts. Some managers hold back from filling the spot until later innings so they can stockpile the talent of the running back and wide receiver. Then there are those who prioritize landing in one of the top three spots. Since drafts can be unpredictable, the optimal plan of attack may depend on where you choose from.
The managers who included Travis Kelsey in their rosters last season had a huge advantage. He was far and away the best fantasy finish of 2022, besting the closest quarterback (TJ Hockenson) by more than 100 points. The only non-quarterbacks who have accumulated more fantasy points than Kelsey are Austin Eckler, Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Tyrek Hill, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Stephon Diggs.
Narrow draft strategy
When should I draft a tight end in fantasy football? Well, it depends. Players in this position generally don’t score as much as wide receivers and running backs, so some managers tend to target them early in the draft. TE1 Elite can definitely give you an edge every week. I’m about to say something important. Please repeat after me: If you draft a tight end early on, you better be confident they have a chance of finishing as a TE1 overall. You’ll have to pass the running backs and wide receivers if you spot Kelce, Hockenson, or Mark Andrews in the first four or five innings.
There’s a lot more depth to the tight end than you think, and the position in drafts doesn’t dry out like a running back or wide receiver because most fantasy leagues have one TE slot. Tight ends play a bigger role in the modern NFL now that it’s a passing league. Over the past three years, more than 20% of permits have been asked for this position. This coincides with a decrease in the average total depth of target (aDOT) as well. In part, this is because defenses have adapted to slow down quarterbacks and prevent big passes.
The bottom line is, blitz rates have been steadily declining since 2006. Area coverage has been trending the same way since 2016. These trends encourage quarterbacks to hang on to the ball, throw under it more often and target holes in the area, which is great for ends. cramped.
This is why I usually wait until the middle or late rounds to draft one. There are plenty of reliable beginners in the second and third levels who won’t break the bank if we consider draft capital as currency. When evaluating these tight ends, be aware that goals, aDOT, and receptions per game are some of the more consistent stats.
The most important events of 2023
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Will Kelsey continue to defy the age regression? It’s hard to bet on someone who has been the best fantasy ending in six of the past seven seasons. Kelce averaged 8.6 goals, 77.5 yards receiving and 17.1 fantasy points per game during this time frame. It also helps that he’s tied for the Chiefs’ explosive offense that finished first in total yards and points scored per game last season.
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Can Dalton Schultz remain a relatable fictional Texan? Houston has a new rookie quarterback and offensive coordinator, Bob Slowik, who is part of Kyle Shanahan’s coaching tree. Schultz would catch many short and medium passes into the middle of the field in this scheme and lead the Texans in goals.
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Will Pat Freyermuth join the tight boy circle in 2023? As one of eight tight ends in league history to convert 70 or more catches to first downs in his first two major league seasons, Freiermuth played a significant role in the development of quarterback Kenny Pickett last season. That should continue in 2023.
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Will Darren Waller return to form with the Giants? Waller has spent two injury-shortened seasons since posting career-highs in receptions and receiving yardage in 2020. Now that he’s been traded to the Giants, Waller could return to the higher level of fantasy tight ends. Daniel Jones should target him hard. Moving to a new team and Waller’s recent injury history makes him risky.
Disassembly of the TE layers
Level 1
Travis Kelsey
Mark Andrews
TJ Hawkinson
You shouldn’t be surprised to see Kelsey, Andrews and Hawkinson in the top tier. The fantasy directors know what to expect from Kelce. Andrews’ value is in a better place now that we know Lamar Jackson will be under center for the Ravens in 2023. I’m optimistic about offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s new scheme in Baltimore. Andrews is a great fit for Monken, who likes to use tight ends to create mismatches and emphasize defense from the sideline to the sidelines, creating space for playmakers to thrive. Hawkinson’s success with the Vikings last season should translate into next season, especially with a full season to prepare with Kirk Cousins. He averaged 8.6 goals and 12.9 fantasy points in 10 games with Minnesota. You will have to use a pick in rounds 1 through 4 to draft one of these tight ends.
Level 2
Kyle Bates
George Keitel
Dallas Goedert
Pat Freermuth
Darren Waller
Evan Ingram
You should feel comfortable starting tight ends at this level if you prefer to tackle the situation in the middle innings. Bates showed fantasy managers his upside as a junior in 2021 when he eclipsed 1,000 yards. He’s an intriguing candidate with sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder. Kittle was great last season with Brock Purdy at quarterback. In those games, he averaged 16.8 fantasy points. The Eagles employ 12 personnel, which bodes well for the 2023 season for Godert. Last season, he scored 5.7 goals and 11.7 fantasy points per game. Ingram achieved career highs in receptions and receiving yards while scoring four touchdowns in his first season in Jacksonville.
Level 3
David Njoku
Dalton Schultz
Cole dun
Dawson Knox
Tyler Higby
Greg Dolcic
Gerald Everett
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Zak Ertz
Njoku and Okonkwo are two tight ends drawn to this level. Njoku is in a good position to build on his breakout season with an improved Deshaun Watson and possibly even better health. Okonkw’s 2.61 yards per run led all tight ends and was second in the league behind Tyreek Hill. Okonkwo will be the obvious starter this season with Austin Hooper now with the Raiders. By pairing up tight ends of this level, you implement a per-committee flow approach to target the best matches each week.
Potential breakthroughs…and fears
Njoku and Okonkwo clearly have breakout potential, but there are two more names to watch:
Greg Dolch is someone I will be watching closely to see how he gets exploited in Sean Payton’s attack in Denver. Dulcich has the ability to threaten defenses on all three levels and become a mismatched nightmare for opponents.
Joan Johnson is something else. He had a career-high seven touchdowns and was third on the Saints in goals. Johnson just signed a two-year deal with the Saints and will pick up passes from Derek Carr.
One of my concerns is whether Bates will bounce back after a disappointing season. We’ve seen his upside, but Ridder is yet to be proven professionally under the center. Pitts could be a good value in fantasy drafts if he and Ridder work together and sync up over the offseason. It can also be a bust for two seasons in a row. Bates is worth the gamble on an average draft position. He has the raw talent and skill that is set to be a tight end.